NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah conducted his yearly conference call with the media. Here are the five most important things he said as it pertains to the Chargers.
Deep Tight End Class
Jeremiah said early in the call that this is the best tight end class he’s seen in a decade, with 11 players earning top three round grades from the prominent analyst. Those players are as follows:
Dalton Kincaid, Utah
Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Darnell Washington, Georgia
Luke Musgrave, Oregon State
Sam LaPorta, Iowa
Tucker Kraft, South Dakota State
Davis Allen, Clemson
Payne Durham, Purdue
Luke Schoonmaker, Michigan
Brenton Strange, Penn State
Josh Whyle, Cincinnati
Jeremiah went on to compare Kincaid, his personal TE1, to a “better version of Zach Ertz”. However, he was quick to point out that there’s no consensus around the league about who TE1 is. Kincaid, Mayer, Musgrave, and Washington all have their fans around the league. According to Jeremiah, the value at the position will be in the third and fourth rounds, where players he has graded highly will slip because of positional value and the strength of the class elsewhere.
This is important to the Chargers for two reasons. One, it means that their #1 choice at tight end may be available at the 21st overall pick since there’s little consensus about the best prospect. Kincaid will not participate at the combine due to a back injury, but expected performances from Washington and Musgrave are sure to push them up boards. If LA chooses to address the position early, they’ll have options.
Two, it means that LA doesn’t have to address the position early. If another need, like wide receiver or pass rusher, prevents a better value at 21st overall, the Chargers can live with waiting on a tight end until Day 2. That sort of flexibility is key in the draft, as locking into positions to target often results in overdrafting.
No Trade Down Scenarios?
When asked about mocking Florida QB Anthony Richardson to the Detroit Lions at 18, Jeremiah retorted that Richardson “is not going to be there when it’s all said and done”. The analyst went on to say that Richardson is QB2 for a number of teams around the league.
Similarly, Jeremiah called Texas RB Bijan Robinson a top 5 prospect in the draft, transcendent enough that a team picking in the top 10 “would not get laughs” for selecting him. Jeremiah did concede that he has no idea where Robinson will ultimately be drafted because of the value of the position in the modern NFL.
In tandem, these two pieces of information effectively torpedo any hopes of the Chargers trading down from 21 to accumulate more draft capital. LA hasn’t traded down during the first round in nearly 30 years anyhow, but most trade partners are coming up for either a quarterback or an elite talent who’s beginning to slip. With Richardson seemingly a lock for the top 10, there are few options for a late first round QB that will be available at 21. It looks much more like Richardson, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Will Levis will go early before a long dry spell at the position.
As far as Robinson, Jeremiah’s comments make me think his range is much more similar to Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton’s from a year ago. Both were touted as the best prospect in years at their respective positions, but play non-premium positions that drove them down the board. Hamilton was eventually selected 14th by the Ravens, and that area is about where I’d expect to see Robinson’s name come off the board as well.
Of course, there are some exceptions to the trading rules. LA traded up in 2020 to take Kenneth Murray, for example. So it’s still possible that the Chargers move off of the 21st overall pick, but I wouldn’t hold your breath.
Quality Depth at EDGE
Much like tight end, Jeremiah lauded the depth of the pass rusher class, saying:
I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised with the quality of depth that’s still going to be there in the third and fourth round of the draft.
He mentioned a few prospects by name: Clemson’s KJ Henry, Army’s Andre Carter II, Ohio State’s Zach Harrison, and TCU’s Dylan Horton. Notre Dame’s Isaiah Foskey was also on the list, but Jeremiah gave the caveat that Foskey’s testing numbers at the combine will push him higher up the board.
Asked again later in the call, Jeremiah again mentioned Carter, who he said needs to add functional strength, and Horton, who he compared to 49ers player Charles Omenihu. He also mentioned Tennessee’s Byron Young, who was recruited and played for new Chargers defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley in 2020.
Farther up the board, Jeremiah gave a brief synopsis of Georgia’s Nolan Smith, another potential Chargers target given Brandon Staley’s affinity for Georgia products:
He has big-time juice and burst coming off the edge. He can change directions. He has a good feel at the top of his rush. He can bend and close. He will grab the wrist. He has a really good job of controlling the wrist of opponents. One of the plays with him you are watching Auburn. It’s special teams. They run a fake punt. He sniffs it out and makes a play. Just showed you the overall football player that he is. Just a really good player.
Jeremiah went as far as to compare Smith to Eagles pass rusher Haason Reddick.
Again, much like tight end, these revelations show that the Chargers aren’t going to lose out on an impact player if they don’t draft a pass rusher at 21. There will be talent available on Day 2 into early Day 3, including players like Young that have familiarity with the Chargers staff.
Speed
Asked specifically about the Chargers and his mock draft selection of TCU’s Quentin Johnston, Jeremiah pointed out the obvious: speed is an “element that needs to be added” for the Chargers. But the analyst had an interesting point: adding that speed doesn’t have to come in the first round of the draft. There’s no ultimatum for LA to find it there. They could turn to free agency or later rounds of the draft instead. Jeremiah went on to say that the team’s looming free agent decision with tackle Trey Pipkins will inform the draft direction for LA.
When asked about Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt, Jeremiah responded that “worse case scenario, he is going to stretch the field.” He pointed out that Hyatt is mostly straight-line fast and not so much an elusive player. Because of Tennessee’s offensive system, his route tree will be a work in progress. But Jeremiah expressed optimism that Hyatt has the ability to get in and out of breaks on more complex routes, he just didn’t show it often because he wasn’t asked to.
As far as other speed threats go, Jeremiah mentioned Johnston, Houston’s Tank Dell, who he compared to Marquise Brown, Cincinnati’s Tyler Scott, Purdue’s Charlie Jones, and Oklahoma’s Marvin Mims.
That’s three-for-three on positions of need for the Chargers that have players down the board that Jeremiah thinks can still contribute. All that to say: there are options at 21, and the pick should really come down to best player available (within reason).
Not-So-Safe Safety Class
The Chargers’ need at safety is an odd one. Starter Nasir Adderley is unlikely to return in free agency after being benched on and off for the last few games of the season. Alohi Gilman played admirably in his stead, but the team doesn’t seem comfortable or overly confident in handing him a starting role going forward. 2022 third round pick JT Woods hardly played as a rookie and still seems to have a ways to go before he’s ready.
Then, you have Brandon Staley’s philosophy: as long as he’s the head coach, DB is a position to consider in the draft. They added three in last year’s class: Woods, sixth rounder Ja’Sir Taylor, and seventh rounder Deane Leonard.
This year, however, Jeremiah called the safety class “a little bit light”, with only six players that he thinks are future NFL starters. That’s not great news for LA if they want to add to the room with another young face. Jeremiah did say that his top safety, Penn State’s Ji’Ayir Brown, is somewhere in the 30s or early 40s of his top 50 prospects, so the premium doesn’t begin until the second round.
