Last year the sub-.500 Buccaneers won the NFC South. Then Tom Brady retired, Derek Carr joined the Saints and Desmond Ridder got the full-time job with the Falcons, while the Panthers traded up to take Bryce Young with the No. 1 pick.
In short, chaos.
No other division will see all four Week 1 starters under center be different than in 2022, but the NFC South got a full overhaul. As a result, it’s also the most wide-open gaggle in the league, with all the teams having legitimate shots to host a playoff game come January.
Essentially, which team will come together quickest, with a litany of moving parts and young talents helping to create both hope and uncertainty around their respective group?
Atlanta Falcons
Is Desmond Ridder ready to lead Atlanta to the playoffs?
Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports
After watching Marcus Mariota most of his rookie season, Ridder’s time has come.
While Atlanta was careful to hedge its bets with Ridder by adding veteran Taylor Heinicke to the depth chart, there’s no question who will start, barring injury. And with the NFC South being so unpredictable in 2023, Ridder has a chance to not only establish himself with the Falcons but make a big splash nationally.
Offensively, Atlanta has a quality supporting cast. The Falcons are hoping for talented tight end Kyle Pitts to have a breakout campaign, while second-year receiver Drake London continues ascending. In the backfield there’s a potentially fantastic combo of Tyler Allgeier and rookie Bijan Robinson.
All this leaves Ridder in a position to make the simple plays, along with the occasional terrific one. As a four-year starter at Cincinnati, the 23-year-old threw 87 touchdowns against 28 interceptions while notching 2,180 rushing yards and another 28 scores on the ground. That dual-threat ability could be key for Atlanta, especially in situational football such as third downs and red zone plays.
Carolina Panthers
Does Frank Reich finally find a sustainable situation?
Jim Dedmon/USA TODAY Sports
The Panthers changed almost everything this offseason. For Reich, that’s nothing new.
Ever since getting to the divisional round with Andrew Luck in 2019, Reich has been on the hunt for stability. The Colts watched as Luck shocked the football world the following August, retiring and leaving the franchise in a spin cycle they’ve yet to recover from. Indianapolis has started seven quarterbacks over the past four years, ultimately leading to Reich’s ouster at midseason last year.
Now in Carolina, one of Reich’s first big moments was seeing his front office make a megatrade, moving up to the No. 1 pick last spring to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. With the Crimson Tide, Young won the 2021 Heisman Trophy while throwing for 4,872 yards and 47 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Last season, Young had another great campaign, going for 3,328 yards and 32 scores across 12 games.
With the Panthers, Young is set up for success. Carolina has veteran playmakers in running back Miles Sanders, receivers DJ Chark and Adam Thielen, and tight end Hayden Hurst. The quarterback will also be behind a young-but-talented offensive line, led by second-year tackle Ickey Ekwonu.
If Young proves to be the answer at quarterback, Reich can finally start implementing a long-term plan.
New Orleans Saints
Will the pairing of Dennis Allen and Derek Carr succeed?
Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports
For both Allen and Carr, the 2022 season provides a chance at redemption.
Last year, Carr was unceremoniously dumped by the Raiders, sent home to avoid injury—and removing the risk of having to pay him in 2023—with two games left in the season. After all efforts to trade the 32-year-old were exhausted, Carr was eventually released before signing a four-year deal with the Saints.
In New Orleans, Carr joins another Silver-and-Black castoff in Allen, who is trying to make the playoffs for the first time in his head coaching career. With the Raiders, Allen went 8–28 from 2012 to ’14 before being fired (his last season being Carr’s rookie year). Then, last year with New Orleans, Allen posted a 7–10 mark.
For Carr, he’s made four Pro Bowls but played in only one playoff game, a wild-card loss to the Bengals in 2021. Now in a much weaker conference, perhaps this is his best chance to make a significant move, while also getting to avoid cold weather and enjoy the hospitality of the Superdome.
With a solid roster and a bad division laid ahead of them, can Allen and Carr finally achieve success in January?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
How long do the Bucs pretend not to know who their QB is?
Steve Sisney/For the Oklahoman/USA TODAY Network
Every year there’s a team or two in the league trying to fake competition—because it’s a nice look. The Buccaneers might be this year’s squad, with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask both looking to replace Tom Brady.
For its sake, Tampa Bay should cut the nonsense and give Mayfield all the starter’s reps immediately.
Mayfield isn’t an ideal starter, but he has experience, and, on this veteran Buccaneers team, that’ll go a long way. Although he’s now on his fourth team in three years, the 2018 No. 1 pick and two-time Heisman Trophy winner has succeeded in the NFL before, throwing for 3,563 yards and 26 touchdowns against eight interceptions in ’20. That season saw Mayfield and the Browns win a playoff game—the first and only Cleveland victory in the postseason since 1994.
With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the outside, Mayfield has a chance to revive his career. While Trask might have a nice future ahead, he’s 25 years old and has only nine pass attempts to his name.
If Mayfield falters, Trask should get a considerable run at some point in 2023, but if coach Todd Bowles wants to save his job and win some games, Mayfield is the clear choice.
