At the 2023 All-Star break, the bad news for general manager Rafael Stone, head coach Stephen Silas and a young Houston Rockets team is they still own the NBA’s worst record.
The good news is that led by the likes of Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, the 2023 draft class is widely viewed as a strong one. To that end, Stone and the Rockets have full control of their pick once this year’s draft takes place on Thursday, June 22.
Moreover, thanks to a pick-swap right obtained in the Eric Gordon trade, the Rockets have another first-round selection headed their way from the Los Angeles Clippers. That pick could be as high as the middle of the first round, or certainly above where the Milwaukee selection (the pick Houston originally owned) will likely end up.
For playoff-bound teams like the Clippers or Bucks, draft slots are determined solely by record. For the 14 non-playoff teams, like the Rockets, the top-four picks are determined from a weighted lottery system. From there, the remainder are decided by record.
Here’s a roundup of who the various draft experts have going to Houston in recent mock drafts, along with a look at the lottery odds.
2022-23 NBA standings on Feb. 21
Teams within five games of Houston in the standings:
- 1. Houston, 13-45
- 2. San Antonio, 14-45, 0.5 games back (GB)
- 3. Detroit, 15-44, 1.5 GB
- 4. Charlotte, 17-43, 3.0 GB
The bottom-three teams have identical odds of landing a top-four pick in the May 16 draft lottery. However, there is a difference in the “floor” scenarios for those franchises. The team with the worst record cannot fall below No. 5 in the first-round order, whereas the second-worst team can drop to as low as No. 6, and so on.
Draft lottery odds, if Rockets finish with worst record
- No. 1: 14%
- No. 2: 13.4%
- No. 3: 12.7%
- No. 4: 12%
- No. 5: 47.9%
(pick odds via Tankathon)
Projections for Houston’s 2023 first-round pick
- Sam Vecenie, The Athletic, No. 1 overall: Victor Wembanyama (France’s Metropolitans 92: Big, 19 years old, 7-2)
- Jonathan Wasserman, Bleacher Report, No. 1 overall: Victor Wembanyama (France’s Metropolitans 92: Big, 19 years old, 7-2)
- Kyle Boone, CBS Sports, No. 2 overall: Scoot Henderson (NBA G League Ignite: Guard, 19 years old, 6-2)
- Gary Parrish, CBS Sports, No. 2 overall: Scoot Henderson (NBA G League Ignite: Guard, 19 years old, 6-2)
- Tankathon, No. 1 overall: Victor Wembanyama (France’s Metropolitans 92: Big, 19 years old, 7-2)
- NBADraft.net, No. 1 overall: Victor Wembanyama (France’s Metropolitans 92: Big, 19 years old, 7-2)
- No Ceilings, No. 1 overall: Victor Wembanyama (France’s Metropolitans 92: Big, 19 years old, 7-2)
Check out Tankathon’s latest 2023 NBA draft big board for statistics and additional information on these prospects and beyond.
Keep in mind that some of these slot projections (i.e. No. 1 overall) are based simply on current records, while others are compiled based on a draft lottery simulation. Click on the direct link to each of these mock drafts for specific details regarding their methodology.
Projections for Houston’s 2023 first-round pick via Clippers
- Sam Vecenie, The Athletic, No. 21 overall: Dariq Whitehead (Duke: Wing, 18 years old, 6-6)
- Jonathan Wasserman, Bleacher Report, No. 18 overall: Jalen Hood-Schifino (Indiana: Guard, 19 years old, 6-6)
- Kyle Boone, CBS Sports, No. 21 overall: Dereck Lively II (Duke: Big, 18 years old, 7-1)
- Gary Parrish, CBS Sports, No. 20 overall: Maxwell Lewis (Pepperdine: Wing, 20 years old, 6-7)
- Tankathon, No. 20 overall: Terquavion Smith (North Carolina State: Guard, 20 years old, 6-4)
- NBADraft.net, No. 18 overall: Leonard Miller (NBA G League Ignite: Forward, 19 years old, 6-10)
- No Ceilings, No. 18 overall: Maxwell Lewis (Pepperdine: Wing, 20 years old, 6-7)
While none of these selections are based on draft lottery simulations (since the Clippers appear likely to be in the 2023 playoffs), there is still some slight variance in first-round slot projections based on the exact date of each mock draft and the standings at that time.
Check out Tankathon’s complete 2023 NBA draft big board for statistics and additional information on these prospects and beyond.
