While it’s not smart to put too much weight on a player’s performance during March Madness, it’s still a great scouting opportunity.
We had several breakout stars during the NCAA men’s tournament and some disappointing performances as well. Although the Final Four does not feature many projectable NBA players, there are still a few prospects who could hear their names called on the night of the draft.
The most notable is UConn’s Jordan Hawkins, who scored at least 20 points in the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight. Some players (e.g. UConn’s Donovan Clingan or FAU’s Johnell Davis) would likely appear on our mock draft if they decide to turn pro.
Our draft order is based on what was listed on Tankathon on March 30. The official order will be set after the much-anticipated lottery in Chicago on May 16.
Unless noted otherwise, all data was pulled from our friends at Cerebro Sports — you can create a free account to evaluate player performance across all levels globally.
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1
Detroit Pistons: Victor Wembanyama
Metropolitans 92, International, 7-3
FROM: France
DRAFT AGE: 19.5
It doesn’t matter who gets the No. 1 overall pick or how many big men are currently on the roster. No matter which team wins the lottery, when draft night comes, they are sprinting to the podium to select Victor Wembanyama.
Based on the catch-all metric C-RAM, via Cerebro Sports, the 19-year-old big is currently the highest overall performer (minimum: 2 games played) in the French league.
He has the potential to change not only whatever franchise is lucky enough to draft him but potentially also the league at large.
2
Houston Rockets: Scoot Henderson
Ignite, G League, 6-2
FROM: Marietta, Georgia
DRAFT AGE: 19.5
There were some whispers that Alabama’s Brandon Miller could hear his name at No. 2 overall before Scoot Henderson, and I can confirm I’ve heard scouts say as much to me as well. But I’m sticking with Henderson as the first player picked after Wembanyama in these projections.
Henderson, who was recently shut down for the season, has had an “unprecedented” path to where he is today. If you trust that his shooting efficiency will improve, which I do, he is as compelling of a backcourt prospect as we have evaluated since Ja Morant.
3
San Antonio Spurs: Amen Thompson
Elite, Overtime, 6-6
FROM: Oakland, CA
DRAFT AGE: 20.4
This may be a touch higher than where most evaluators expect Overtime’s Amen Thompson to hear his name on draft night. But he is a very special athlete, passer, ball-handler, and defender.
His floor general skills (FGS) ranked among the highest for Overtime players during Cerebro-certified events, via Cerebro Sports. Thompson makes his way to the rim often and averaged 0.19 drives per touch, per AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform. That is the most among all projected first-round draft picks.
I’m betting on Thompson fixing his jumper in the NBA, and if he can, he has unbelievable potential.
4
Charlotte Hornets: Brandon Miller
Alabama Crimson Tide, Freshman. 6-8
FROM: Antioch, TN
DRAFT AGE: 20.6
Brandon Miller struggled during Alabama’s short run in March Madness.
He had a nightmarish month, but prospects are evaluated for the entirety of their body of work and not just one tough stretch. The SEC Player of the Year has NBA-caliber size and elite shooting touch. He is almost certainly getting selected as one of the first five picks in the 2023 NBA Draft.
5
Portland Trail Blazers: Cam Whitmore
Villanova Wildcats, Freshman, 6-6
FROM: Odenton, MD
DRAFT AGE: 19.0
The Portland Trail Blazers will find themselves on the clock much earlier than anticipated in the 2023 NBA Draft. Like they did last year when they selected Shaedon Sharpe, they will likely select the prospect with the highest potential left on the board.
Don’t be surprised if that player is Big East Rookie of the Year, Villanova’s Cam Whitmore. He is a strong defender who has good shooting touch and impressive vertical pop.
6
Orlando Magic: Ausar Thompson
Elite, Overtime, 6-6
FROM: Oakland, CA
DRAFT AGE: 20.4
Ausar Thompson, who has a more efficient jump shot than his twin brother Amen, was named MVP of Overtime Elite in 2022-23.
Thompson had the highest defensive statistical impact (DSI) among all Overtime players who averaged more than 20 minutes per game during their Cerebro-certified events, via Cerebro Sports.
He also allowed only 0.57 defensive points per chance, per AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform. That ranked second-best among all consensus top-100 prospects.
7
Indiana Pacers: Jarace Walker
Houston Cougars, Freshman, 6-8
FROM: New Freedom, PA
DRAFT AGE: 19.8
Houston’s Jarace Walker, the American Athletic Conference Rookie of the Year, was arguably the most intriguing NCAA prospect who made the NCAA men’s tournament this season.
He is a high-level defender capable of guarding the ball-handler and the screener in pick-and-roll sets. Walker crashes the boards hard and boxed out his opponents on 39.8 percent of opportunities, per AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform. That ranked as the most among projected first-round draft picks.
8
Washington Wizards: Cason Wallace
Kentucky Wildcats, Freshman, 6-4
FROM: Dallas, TX
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
Kentucky had an underwhelming campaign, but it wasn’t because of Cason Wallace. The SEC All-Freshman guard was perhaps the most promising of the backcourt prospects in college basketball last season, shooting 15-for-31 (48.4 percent) on corner 3-pointers, via CBB Analytics.
Wallace averaged 0.77 passes per touch, per AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform. That was the highest among all projected first-round draft picks.
He maintained a high steal rate throughout the season, too, showing his prowess as a defensive playmaker. He projects well as a solid contributor at the next level.
9
Orlando Magic (via CHI): Gradey Dick
Kansas Jayhawks, Freshman, 6-8
FROM: Wichita, KS
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
Kansas freshman Gradey Dick hit a slump to end his freshman season, but any team looking for 3-point shooting in this class has his name underlined and highlighted on their big boards.
Dick ended his season shooting an excellent 40.3 percent on 3-pointers.
But perhaps most impressive is the shooting gravity that he will provide. The All-Big 12 forward forced a closeout on 28.7 percent of his offensive touches, per AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform. That is the highest among all projected first-round draft picks.
10
Utah Jazz: Anthony Black
Arkansas Razorbacks, Freshman. 6-7
FROM: Duncanville, TX
DRAFT AGE: 19.4
Anthony Black is a swiss-army-knife prospect and prospects with his blend of size, playmaking, and defensive ability tend to hear their name called early in the draft.
The biggest hole in his game is his shooting, but his jump shot isn’t necessarily broken.
Although the SEC All-Freshman point-forward shot only 30.1 percent on 3-pointers, he got his shot to fall when he was open. Black was a respectable 18-for-48 (37.5 percent) on uncontested shots from beyond the arc, per AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform.
11
New York Knicks (via DAL): Taylor Hendricks
UCF Knights, Freshman, 6-9
FROM: Fort Lauderdale, FL
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
Based on the catch-all metric C-RAM, via Cerebro Sports, UCF’s Taylor Hendricks trailed only Miller for the best mark among all freshmen.
Hendricks is one of just ten high-major freshmen to record at least 35 dunks and 3-pointers in the same season. Eight of the previous nine were lottery picks and seven heard their name called as one of the first seven picks in their respective draft class.
When he was not scoring, the All-AAC forward provided value by frequently setting dribble handoffs as well. UCF’s defense also fell apart when he was not on the court, allowing an additional 18.6 points per 100 possessions when he did not play relative to when he was on the court, per CBB Analytics.
12
Oklahoma City Thunder: Nick Smith Jr.
Arkansas Razorbacks, Freshman, 6-4
FROM: Jacksonville, ARK
DRAFT AGE: 19.2
Nick Smith didn’t have a very strong freshman campaign at Arkansas, but he was limited by injuries throughout the season. Teams like the Thunder, who have a surplus of first-round draft picks, will still take a long look at Smith in the lottery due to his offensive upside.
13
New Orleans Pelicans: Jordan Hawkins
Connecticut Huskies, Sophomore, 6-5
FROM: Gaithersburg, MD
DRAFT AGE: 21.2
UConn’s Jordan Hawkins is a movement shooter perfect for the NBA.
The All-Big East guard leads all players in points scored on handoffs and off-ball screens during the NCAA men’s tournament, per Synergy. But this isn’t just a stellar run for the UConn star during March Madness. He has done this all season.
It didn’t matter if he was fouled on 3-pointers (he led Division I with 23 fouls drawn on 3-pointers, per CBB Analytics) or if defenders got a hand in his face. Hawkins was 38-for-93 (40.6 percent) on contested 3-pointers, per AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform.
14
Toronto Raptors: Leonard Miller
Ignite, G League, 6-10
FROM: Canada
DRAFT AGE: 19.6
Although he was a bit overshadowed by his star teammate Scoot Henderson on the G League Ignite, the Canadian-born Leonard Miller showed excellent developments during his first professional season.
He is tough to stop as the ball handler in transition and averaged 17.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game as a fascinating prospect in the G League.
Miller had the highest rate of passes (4.4 percent) that led to an assist (also known as a secondary assist or a hockey assist) among all projected first-round draft picks, per AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform.
15
Atlanta Hawks: Gregory "GG" Jackson
South Carolina Gamecocks, Freshman, 6-8
FROM: Columbia, SC
DRAFT AGE: 18.5
South Carolina’s Gregory “G.G.” Jackson will likely be the youngest player selected in the 2023 NBA Draft.
While still often very inefficient on offense, he was a productive player who averaged 15.4 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. The SEC All-Freshman forward is a strong upside swing for a player who could provide excellent long-term value as he continues his development.
16
Los Angeles Lakers: Brice Sensabaugh
Ohio State Buckeyes, Freshman, 6-5
FROM: Orlando, FL
DRAFT AGE: 19.7
Ohio State’s Brice Sensabaugh is a genuine three-level scorer who made 50 shots at the basket, 50 shots from mid-range, and 50 shots beyond the arc. Among the sixteen high-major freshmen to ever accomplish as much before this season, thirteen were selected in the first round.
Sensabaugh averaged 0.47 points per offensive touch, via AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform. That ranked as the best among all projected first-rounders.
17
Utah Jazz (via MIN): Keyonte George
Baylor Bears, Freshman, 6-4
FROM: Lewisville, TX
DRAFT AGE: 19.2
Baylor’s Keyonte George won Big 12 Rookie of the Year, averaging 15.3 points and 2.8 assists per game. He is an excellent rebounder for his position who held his own on the defensive end of the floor. George is an intriguing developmental prospect.
18
Miami Heat: Jett Howard
Michigan Wolverines, Freshman, 6-7
FROM: Miami, FL
DRAFT AGE: 19.8
Although he had a less-than-ideal final stretch of the season for Michigan, teams are going to value Jett Howard’s height and sharpshooting. The All-Big Ten wing projects well as a spot-up threat who finished well shooting off the catch and the dribble.
19
Golden State Warriors: Dariq Whitehead
Duke Blue Devils, Freshman, 6-6
FROM: 18.9
DRAFT AGE: Newark, NJ
Duke’s Dariq Whitehead was hampered by injuries to begin the season, and he didn’t get to the free-throw line often or finish particularly well at the rim.
But he improved his draft stock as the campaign continued and by the end of the season, he was 42.9 percent on 3-pointers. That’s enough to warrant first-round consideration.
20
Houston Rockets (via LAC): Dereck Lively II
Duke Blue Devils, Freshman, 7-2
FROM: Philadelphia, PA
DRAFT AGE: 19.4
From the beginning of the season until the end, Duke’s Dereck Lively was one of the most improved players in this draft class.
He earned ACC All-Defense behind five games with at least five blocks. Duke’s opponents shot just 29.8 percent in the paint when Lively was on the court, per CBB Analytics.
Lively is a bit limited on the offensive end of the floor, but the intrigue as a rim protector makes him a likely first-rounder.
21
Brooklyn Nets: Colby Jones
Xavier Musketeers, Junior, 6-6
FROM: Birmingham, AL
DRAFT AGE: 21.1
Xavier’s Colby Jones is an all-around contributor who averaged 15.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. The All-Big East guard needs to shoot more 3-pointers and improve at the free-throw line to find his way into an NBA rotation. But he was very productive on floaters and is an intriguing prospect.
22
Brooklyn Nets (via PHX): Maxwell Lewis
Pepperdine Waves, Sophomore, 6-7
FROM: Las Vegas, NV
DRAFT AGE: 20.9
After a hot start to his sophomore season, All-WCC forward Maxwell Lewis hit a wall toward the end of the campaign. But after recording 17.1 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, Lewis earned some fans in NBA front offices and he will still likely hear his name called in the first round.
23
Portland Trail Blazers (via NYK): Terquavion Smith
North Carolina State Wolfpack, Sophomore, 6-4
FROM: Greenville, NC
DRAFT AGE: 20.5
Despite efficiency concerns, NC State’s Terquavion Smith is one of the best high-volume scorers in this draft class. Although he played just one game in the NCAA men’s tournament, according to Synergy, the All-ACC guard still has the second-most total points scored as the ball-handler in pick-and-roll sets.
24
Sacramento Kings: Kris Murray
Iowa Hawkeyes, Junior, 6-8
FROM: Cedar Rapids, IA
DRAFT AGE: 22.9
Iowa’s Kris Murray would have benefited from a stronger performance in the NCAA men’s tournament, but it’s still worth noting that he had an excellent season. The All-Big Ten forward finished the season averaging 20.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game.
25
Indiana Pacers (via CLE): Jalen Hood-Schifino
Indiana Hoosiers, Freshman, 6-5
FROM: Pittsburgh, PA
DRAFT AGE: 20.0
Indiana’s Jalen Hood-Schifino earned Big Ten Rookie of the Year after averaging 13.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. He needs to improve his jumper, but anyone who looks as comfortable as he does in ball screens is a sure-fire first-round draft pick.
26
Memphis Grizzlies: Kobe Bufkin
Michigan Wolverines, Sophomore, 6-4
FROM: Grand Rapids, MI
DRAFT AGE: 19.8
All-Big Ten guard Kobe Bufkin was highly impactful for his team.
Michigan outscored opponents by 9.9 points per 100 possessions when Bufkin was on the floor, per Pivot Analysis. They were outscored by 11.8 points per 100 when he was not featured. According to CBB Analytics, that swing ranked sixth-best among all high-major players.
27
Utah Jazz (via PHI): James Nnaji
FC Barcelona, International, 6-10
FROM: Nigeria
DRAFT AGE: 18.9
For teams who have multiple first-round draft picks and are looking for a potential draft-and-stash candidate, Barca’s James Nnaji should be one of the first names on the list.
The rim-rolling big man is an efficient 17-for-20 (85.0 percent) when setting screens in the pick-and-roll, via Synergy.
28
Charlotte Hornets (via DEN): Amari Bailey
UCLA Bruins, Freshman, 6-5
FROM: Chicago, IL
DRAFT AGE: 19.4
UCLA’s Amari Bailey had a breakout performance against UNC Asheville during the opening round of the NCAA men’s tournament.
He finished his first game in March Madness with 17 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals. Bailey recorded a game-high 10 “good” possessions, per ShotQuality, the second-most he had ever finished with during his NCAA career thus far.
Bailey was among the leaders in points scored on the fastbreak during March Madness, and he played well on the defensive side of the floor as well.
29
Indiana Pacers (via BOS): Bilal Coulibaly
Metropolitans 92, International, 6-7
FROM: France
DRAFT AGE: 18.9
France’s Bilal Coulibaly is another intriguing draft-and-stash candidate for teams with multiple first-round draft picks. The 18-year-old forward has a 7-foot-3 wingspan and has gained increased attention playing on the same team as Victor Wembanyama in France.
30
L.A. Clippers (via MIL): Brandin Podziemski
Santa Clara Broncos, Sophomore, 6-5
FROM: Greenfield, WI
DRAFT AGE: 20.3
Santa Clara’s Brandin Podziemski was arguably the best transfer in the nation. His pure scoring prowess (PSP) ranked second-best among underclassmen (minimum: 2 minutes per game) during Cerebro-certified events, via Cerebro Sports.
That is particularly impressive considering 69.9 percent of his 3-pointers were contested, per AI-Powered statistics provided by Stats Perform. That ranked as the most among consensus top-100 recruits who had at least 30 contested 3-pointers tracked.
31
SECOND ROUND
31. Detroit Pistons: Julian Phillips (Tennessee Volunteers)
32. Indiana Pacers (via HOU): Rayan Rupert (SKYCITY New Zealand Breakers)
33. San Antonio Spurs: Adem Bona (UCLA Bruins)
34. Charlotte Hornets: Noah Clowney (Alabama Crimson Tide)
35. Orlando Magic: Julian Strawther (Gonzaga Bulldogs)
36. Boston Celtics (via POR): Kyle Filipowski (Duke Blue Devils)
37. Sacramento Kings (via IND): Sidy Cissoko (G League Ignite)
38. Oklahoma City Thunder (via WAS): Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana Hoosiers)
39. Charlotte Hornets (via UTA): Nikola Đurišić (Mega Soccerbet)
40. Washington Wizards (via CHI): Ricky Council IV (Arkansas Razorbacks)
41. Denver Nuggets (via DAL): DaRon Holmes II (Dayton Flyers)
42. Charlotte Hornets (via OKC): Marcus Sasser (Houston Cougars)
43. Los Angeles Lakers: Andre Jackson Jr. (UConn Huskies)
44. Portland Trail Blazers (via ATL): Emoni Bates (Eastern Michigan Eagles)
45. San Antonio Spurs (via TOR): Oso Ighodaro (Marquette Golden Eagles)
46. Atlanta Hawks (via NOP): Jalen Wilson (Kansas Jayhawks)
47. Memphis Grizzlies (via MIN): Jalen Slawson (Furman Paladins)
48. Cleveland Cavaliers (via GSW): Trey Alexander (Creighton Blue Jays)
49. Oklahoma City Thunder (via MIA): Kevin McCullar Jr. (Kansas Jayhawks)
50. L.A. Clippers: Reece Beekman (Virginia Cavaliers)
51. Phoenix Suns: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (UCLA Bruins)
52. Brooklyn Nets: Jordan Miller (Miami Hurricanes)
53. Minnesota Timberwolves (via NYK): Kobe Brown (Missouri Tigers)
54. Sacramento Kings: Drew Timme (Gonzaga Bulldogs)
55. Indiana Pacers (via CLE): Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Marquette Golden Eagles)
56. Memphis Grizzlies: Baylor Scheierman (Creighton Bluejays)
57. Washington Wizards (via BOS): Isaiah Wong (Miami Hurricanes)
58. Milwaukee Bucks: Tristan Vukcevic (Partizan NiS Beograd)
