Since 2017, there have been 65 teams that have had a winning streak of five or more in a single season. Only ten failed to make the playoffs, including three from 2023: The Denver Broncos, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Minnesota Vikings.
Minnesota’s run is a bit more impressive due to two of the wins being with a quarterback in Josh Dobbs, who was in the building for less than two weeks. Like the other two teams, however, the Vikings were victims of a crushing late-season collapse that took them out of the playoff race.
Don’t let the ending take away from another memorable season for the Vikings.
What started as a simple quest for answers for the franchise’s future became an adventure for the ages, littered with twists and turns suitable for the Alex Rider series. While the ride ended disappointingly, the numbers from this season may have helped the front office to their answers after all.
To explain, we will split this season into four quarters and explain the numbers that coincide with each quarter to come to a conclusion for the future of the Vikings.
(All statistics are from Pro-Football-Reference via Stathead or rbsdm.com, unless otherwise stated.)
Quarter 1: Weeks 1-4
The first four weeks of 2023 felt like they were wringing out the last few drops remaining from the 2022 season.
Through the first four weeks, the offense was its usual explosive self. Minnesota ranked third in yards per play, seventh in adjusted net yards per attempt, second in TD% (TDs to pass attempts), third in passing yards, ninth in total yards and sixth in both quarterback rating and touchdowns scored. Being top-ten in all these categories leads one to believe they were one of the better offenses in advanced metrics, right?
The Vikings ranked 17th in both EPA/play and EPA/dropback, yet they rank eighth in offensive success rate. How can they move the ball down the field at a top-ten rate yet be middle-of-the-pack in efficiency? One word: Turnovers.
Minnesota committed 11 turnovers, including seven fumbles, over the first four weeks, the most in the NFL and tied for the most in Vikings history. If you check how many expected points were lost by turnovers in the first four weeks, the Vikings are clear frontrunners.
| Team | Expected Points lost via turnovers |
| Minnesota Vikings | -52.79 |
| Cleveland Browns | -44.52 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | -41.58 |
| New York Giants | -41.45 |
| Chicago Bears | -36.34 |
The difference between Minnesota and the Cleveland Browns at five is more than Cleveland and the Chicago Bears at five. The Vikings were the best at shooting themselves in the foot through the first quarter, which led to three crushing losses in winnable games. What happens if Cousins connects with Hockenson at the end of the Chargers game? If Jefferson hangs on to the ball as he crosses the plane against Philly? If Osborn hangs on to that touchdown just before the half against Tampa? Is this a 4-0 team heading into a Battle of the Titans against Kansas City?
That’s not the reality. The reality is turnovers were enough for the Vikings to drop their first three games and keep a game against a bad Carolina Panthers team close for far too long. There were talks of selling the farm at the trade deadline and starting fresh. The defense, while improved, was still unable to be of much relief, allowing huge games to the duo of Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen and getting obliterated by the Philadelphia Eagles’ running game.
Maybe this was the answer. This team isn’t going to compete and would have to tear it all down and rebuild the roster from scratch, starting in 2024. With the Chiefs coming in, fresh off a three-point primetime win against the New York Jets, the Vikings were destined to find their answer one way or another.
Quarter 2: Weeks 5-8
As Kansas City came in and squeaked out a seven-point victory, they took a significant pound of flesh as they left. Superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson, one of the preseason favorites to finally break the 2,000-yard barrier for receivers and then-current receiving yards leader, left the game with a hamstring injury. His timetable for return was unclear, but he was eventually placed on injured reserve, allowing him all the time necessary to recover.
With Jefferson gone, what was the team to do? Head coach Kevin O’Connell stayed the course and continued to allow Kirk Cousins to run the course. It was a decision that he couldn’t avoid, given the run game continued to struggle (22nd in EPA/rush through the first eight weeks). But it was during this time that Cousins started his ascent.
Despite a lackluster showing against Chicago, Cousins still ranked 5th in completion percentage, tied for sixth in both passing yards and passing touchdowns, third in Adjusted net yards per attempt and 2nd in QB Rating.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson and rookie receiver Jordan Addison were tasked with stepping up while Jefferson was away, and they did not disappoint. Both pass-catchers were top-20 in yards (Addison-13th, Hockenson-20th) and top-15 in receptions (Hockenson-8th, Addison-17th) during this span. Most impressive was that Jordan Addison, again just a rookie, led the league with five touchdowns. Including one of the more spectacular touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers, when he essentially snatched an interception away from cornerback Charvarious Ward’s waiting arms to extend the Vikings’ lead before the half.
On the other side of the football, Brian Flores and the Minnesota defense were starting to catch their stride. Flores’ unorthodox Blitzkrieg-like defense used to control the tempo and speed up a quarterback’s internal clock was beginning to find its stride. The Vikings’ defense was sixth in sacks, third in QB hurries and first in QB pressures. Quarterbacks were struggling to find answers, mix that in with a run defense that was top ten in EPA/rush and 11th in rushing yards per attempt, and the defense was starting to hum.
Danielle Hunter started his campaign for a Pro Bowl in the first quarter by notching at least one sack in each of the first three games, including a three-sack game against the Eagles. That dominance continued into the second quarter, as he had 14 total tackles (12 solo), ten pressures, four TFLs, five QB hits, five sacks and a pass deflection. Hunter winning and getting to the quarterback at the rate that he was allowed the rest of the defense to morph and shift however Flores sees fit, especially in the back end. That was revealed in Minnesota’s signature win against the San Francisco 49ers, where they confused second-year quarterback Brock Purdy and forced him into two interceptions, both by safety Camryn Bynum.
Bynum had a stellar day as he finished the day with nine total tackles (7 solo), one of which allowed Harrison Smith to force a Christian McCaffery fumble, two interceptions and two pass deflections.
The world was different. That win against the then-Super Bowl-favorite 49ers was a potential turning point in the season. They rode that momentum straight into Lambeau Field the following week. As they dominated their hated rivals, leading to their first (and only) win by double-digits of the season, another pivotal moment for the 2023 season arose, this one much more unfriendly.
Cousins fell awkwardly to the ground after attempting to step up in the pocket, alluding a rush by Preston Smith and Kenny Clark. As he was carted off the sidelines, everyone in Minnesota feared the worst. Those fears were realized as it was revealed that Cousins did tear his Achilles and will miss the remainder of the season. After coming off of back-to-back stellar performances that left Minnesota fans hopeful for the back half of the season, the largest question lies at the quarterback position.
Where do they go from here?
Quarter 3: Weeks 9-12
With Cousins down, the season was back in jeopardy. It didn’t seem right. It didn’t seem fair. The defense was pushing all the right buttons, stuffing the run and confusing the opposing quarterback, while the offense was moving at will despite not having Jefferson in the lineup.
With four winnable games in front of them before the bye week, the question mark at the quarterback position had to be addressed. The team brought in Arizona Cardinals’ Josh Dobbs as depth behind rookie Jaren Hall and was looking to give the athletic BYU alum his shot to impress in the upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons.
On his second drive of the game, Hall and the offense had driven the ball 71 yards down the field and were looking at third-and-goal from the four-yard line. As Hall scrambled, he met corner Jeff Okudah at the one-yard line, and was looking to push through to get to paydirt. Instead, linebacker Kaden Ellis finished the job for Atlanta, blasting the rookie into the turf, causing his head to bounce hard on the ground. With a concussion, Minnesota was forced to throw in Dobbs, who had been in the building for less than a week…and the rest is history.
Dobbs would lead the Vikings to victory in back-to-back weeks against NFC South foes, both in electrifying fashion. Breaking out of sacks, extending plays outside of the pocket, running for first downs and touchdowns, Dobbs had taken the NFC by storm and helped lead the Vikings to its fifth straight win.
Then, as quickly as he rose, the Passtronaut fell back to Earth. Minnesota dropped two games to the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears to limp to .500 going into the bye week. The signs of this rapid demise were present during the second half of the Saints game, but as we know, winning cures all. Between the Atlanta game and the first half of the Saints game, Josh Dobbs ranked 2nd among all quarterbacks in EPA/play, only trailing Russell Wilson. From the second half of the Saints game through week 12, of 41 quarterbacks that played 10+ snaps, Dobbs ranked 33rd.
| Player | EPA/Play (Week 9 + Week 10, 1st Half) |
| R.Wilson | 0.422 |
| J.Dobbs | 0.32 |
| C.Stroud | 0.261 |
| J.Love | 0.258 |
| D.Prescott | 0.242 |
| K.Murray | 0.224 |
| J.Burrow | 0.17 |
| B.Mayfield | 0.136 |
| T.Heinicke | 0.123 |
| L.Jackson | 0.122 |
| Player | EPA/Play (Week 10, 2nd Half + Weeks 11-12) |
| T.Heinicke | -0.72 |
| P. Walker | -0.671 |
| B. Zappe | -0.428 |
| D. Thompson-Robinson | -0.41 |
| T. Boyle | -0.357 |
| T.Bagent | -0.333 |
| Z.Wilson | -0.30 |
| M.Jones | -0.278 |
| J.Dobbs | -0.21 |
| B.Young | -0.17 |
| K.Murray | -0.14 |
| A.O’Connell | -0.125 |
| T.DeVito | -0.097 |
Despite this regression, the defense continued to play in their continuously impressive fashion. During this span, the Vikings’ defense was 13th in QB Rating allowed, 13th in yards per play allowed, 10th in EPA allowed/play and 7th in QB pressures and opposing QB completion percentage. Through week 12, Flores had taken this unit, which was near the bottom of the league in most metrics last season and turned it into a top-ten defense almost overnight.
Would it be enough? Could Dobbs bounce back after the bye week to lead these Vikings to the playoffs?
Quarter 4: Weeks 14-18
Coming out of the bye, Minnesota went on the road to play the Las Vegas Raiders, hoping they could get their season back on track. Dobbs was named the starter again, and there was hope that the bye gave him time to study the playbook, get more acclimated with the offense and come back ready to lead Minnesota into the postseason. What came afterward was a sight that had not been seen since 2007. The Vikings and Raiders offenses battled for 60 minutes in front of a crowd of over 62,000 in Allegiant Stadium and combined for three points. A late Greg Joseph field goal saved this game from being the first game to go into overtime 0-0.
In one respect, this was a beautiful thing. The Vikings’ defense shut out an opponent for the first time since 2017. In another respect, this one is probably more applicable, it was a sign of change that needed to happen. To finally drive the football close enough for Joseph’s game-winning 36-yard field goal, backup Nick Mullens had to relieve the incumbent starter Dobbs after he went 10-for-23 for 63 yards and had a QB rating of 50.8. The insertion of Mullens jump-started the offense and his 9-for-13 for 83 yards in his two drives was just enough to give him the nod going into the Cincinnati game. That’s where it all went wrong.
Collapse: verb
1: to fall or shrink together abruptly and completely: fall into a jumbled or flattened mass through the force of external pressure
2: to break down completely: Disintegrate
There is no other word for it. There is no way around it. The Vikings collapsed down the stretch.
They shrunk abruptly. They broke down completely. The jumbled or flattened mass that remained represented the maddening quarterback carousel the Vikings brass and fans were forced to endure over the last quarter of the season.
From weeks 15 to 18, the turnover bug came back full circle and bit Minnesota hard. Their eleven turnovers, including nine interceptions, had the eighth-worst hit as far as expected points lost to turnover. What hurt Minnesota this go-around was not the amount of turnovers, though it certainly didn’t help, but more the timing. Four of the six interceptions thrown in the two losses against the Lions were in the fourth quarter, while the game was still well in the balance. The two most costly turnovers happened just before the half, Hall’s fumble against Green Bay on New Year’s Eve and Mullens’ inexplicable fumble-ception that he essentially handed to the Bengals’ B.J. Hill.
From holding their playoff destinies in their hands heading into Cincinnati to praying for help as they soldiered into Ford Field, the last quarter of this season was one to forget.
But we can’t forget it. We can’t forget, because this final stretch is a valuable lesson that every football fan, no matter how long you’ve been watching.
Conclusion
Without the quarterback, you aren’t getting very far.
| Metric | EPA/Play | EPA/dropback | Points Scored | Yards/Offensive Play | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | QB Rating | ANY/A |
| Weeks 1-8 | 11th | 9th | 12th | 5th | 2nd | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Weeks 9-18 | 22nd | 21st | 28th | 12th | 12th | 15th | 26th | 27th |
In our Most Valuable Player article, I stated that this season will always have an asterisk next to it due to the loss of Cousins. The way he was playing and the trajectory of the defense in his departure leaves a world of questions surrounding how this season could have gone. How it should have gone.
The question now is, what happens next?
In those first eight weeks, did Cousins show enough to be re-signed for another year despite coming off a torn Achilles? If he doesn’t, where does this franchise go to find the answer?
Get aggressive in the draft? At pick 11, the amount of resources/capital to give up to get in range for one of the top guys in April will be gut-wrenching.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has preached the term competitive rebuild, and in his latest press conference, it seems that they believe they are still in the midst of it. However, Adofo-Mensah stated “We want to get to a place where there’s no rebuild, it’s just competitive in a window, and I think we’re close to that. It’s going to take a big offseason…and I’m excited for the challenge.”
What does a big offseason entail? Keeping Kirk Cousins? Finding the quarterback of the future?
In my opinion, they can do both. Cousins has said that he wants to stay and compete for a Super Bowl in Minnesota. With Flores manning the defense, 2024 could be the year that they decide to go for it. With Cousins playing in his third year in the system, the then-36-year-old should be able to play at a level good enough to compete with the top of the conference. As long as you have Jefferson, who somehow still hit 1,000 receiving yards despite missing seven games, anything is possible.
This draft has five-to-six guys, depending on your preference, who could potentially develop into starters in the NFL. If Minnesota plays its cards correctly, they could end up with a quarterback with the traits O’Connell is looking for in a quarterback with a year or two to develop them before they are thrown into action.
2023 was supposed to help clear up things for the Vikings brass, and I believe that it has.
