The term “breakout” has different meanings for different people in the world of fantasy football. Some folks believe it’s simply a player who will outperform his draft position. Others think it’s an established player who emerges into a regular fantasy starter after never having reached that sort of status in the past.
In my opinion, both definitions are true but with a caveat. I don’t see a player as a breakout candidate if he’s already reached his “statistical ceiling” during his career. For example, Justin Herbert or Najee Harris aren’t “breakouts” to me. Is Herbert coming off a down year? Yes. But that doesn’t make him a breakout candidate. The same goes for Harris, who has been considered a top-10 pick in the past.
In my opinion, you can’t break out twice.
Could these players be labeled as bargains in 2023 fantasy drafts? Absolutely. But they’re certainly not considered “breakouts” based on my definition. I also consider some rookies to be breakouts, as these players could outperform or meet their draft position expectations without ever producing in the pros.
- Fantasy Breakouts: Quarterbacks
Another example of a breakout player is Josh Jacobs. He was very good in the stat sheets his first three seasons, but last year he broke out with career bests across the board. It was likely his “ceiling” season in fantasy leagues.
With that in mind, here’s six potential breakout running backs (some of whom admittedly come with risk) who could have career seasons in 2023.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons
Robinson will be the first player mentioned among runners in the breakout category for 2023. In fact, it would be a shock if he didn’t break out on the same level as Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley before him. Robinson is a three-down back who can run, catch and pass protect, and he’s in an offense that loves to run the football. He’ll be a first-round selection in most fantasy redrafts.
Breece Hall, Jets
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Hall is on this list with a caveat, as he’s coming off knee surgery and could be slow to start the season. He was tremendous as a rookie, averaging 16.4 points a game while scoring 15-plus points in four of his final five games (he was injured in that final contest). Assuming Hall has no setbacks in his return, I can see the talented runner finishing as a low RB1 or high-end RB2 this season.
Alexander Mattison, Vikings
The Vikings have gone away from Dalvin Cook, leaving Mattison to be the new top back in what should remain an explosive offense. A dual-threat back who can run and catch it with success, Mattison has a chance to push for high No. 2 fantasy running back value and maybe even emerge as a back end No. 1 option. He’ll be a top-50 selection across the board in what is his best chance for success.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
Expectations will be high for Gibbs, who surprisingly went No. 12 overall in the draft. He should see a significant role in Detroit after the trade of D’Andre Swift, especially as a pass catcher. That could make Gibbs a PPR dream, but he might not have an “elite” season with David Montgomery in the mix. Still, unless you are superstitious, Gibbs is in a good spot to produce as a No. 2 fantasy back.
Cam Akers, Rams
Akers was waiver wire fodder in a lot of leagues in the first half of last season, but he was a league winner down the stretch. In fact, only three running backs scored more points over the last five weeks of the fantasy season and playoffs. The Rams did add Zach Evans in the sixth round of the NFL draft, but Akers projects to be their No. 1 option this season. He could have a career campaign.
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens
Fantasy managers have long been waiting for Dobbins to break out, but knee issues have continued to hamper him. He did show flashes of potential in 2022, though, as Dobbins scored 13-plus points in three of five games where he received double-digit touches. I’m not sure he’ll move into “elite” territory, but Dobbins could be a high-end No. 2 fantasy runner if he can stay out of the trainer’s room.
