The term “breakout” has different meanings for different people in the world of fantasy football. Some folks believe it’s simply a player who will outperform his draft position. Others think it’s an established player who emerges into a regular fantasy starter after never having reached that sort of status in the past.
In my opinion, both definitions are true but with a caveat. I don’t see a player as a breakout candidate if he’s already reached his “statistical ceiling” during his career. For example, Justin Herbert or Najee Harris aren’t “breakouts” to me. Is Herbert coming off a down year? Yes. But that doesn’t make him a breakout candidate. The same goes for Harris, who has been considered a top-10 pick in the past.
In my opinion, you can’t break out twice.
Could these players be labeled as bargains in 2023 fantasy drafts? Absolutely. But they’re certainly not considered “breakouts” based on my definition. I also consider some rookies to be breakouts, as these players could outperform or meet their draft position expectations without ever producing in the pros.
Another example of a breakout player is Josh Jacobs. He was very good in the stat sheets his first three seasons, but last year he broke out with career bests across the board. It was likely his “ceiling” season in fantasy leagues.
With that in mind, here are five breakout quarterbacks to target in the middle to late rounds who could have career-best seasons in 2023.
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Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns last season, which was good enough for him to finish as the QB7. Still, I don’t think that’s his ceiling. In fact, I can see Lawrence pushing for 4,500-plus passing yards and 30-plus touchdowns this season with Calvin Ridley now on the roster. Those types of numbers could push the talented signal-caller closer to that of an elite fantasy level.
Anthony Richardson, Colts
Richardson isn’t what we would call “NFL ready,” but he did land in a good spot with the Colts. New head coach Shane Steichen should help the talented quarterback develop into a productive pro, and he could play sooner than later with only Gardner Minshew on the depth chart. With his mobile skill set, Richardson could put up solid numbers. He’s worth a middle- to late-round redraft choice.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Tagovailoa is coming off a career-best season with 3,548 yards and 25 touchdowns, and he reached those totals despite missing four-plus games. While his concussion issues are certainly a concern, Tagovailoa is in an explosive offense with maybe the best duo of wideouts in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. In his best-case scenario, I can see Tagovailoa finishing as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2023.
Brock Purdy, 49ers
Purdy showed flashes of potential as a rookie, scoring 17-plus fantasy points in three of his five starts in the regular season. Furthermore, he was the QB9 in the final four weeks of the fantasy campaign, including the postseason. While he is coming back from an elbow injury and will have to compete to be the Niners’ top quarterback, he’s in a great spot to find continued success.
Jordan Love, Packers
Love is in a great spot to become a potential sleeper, and he could well break out in a best-case scenario. He had the advantage of learning behind Aaron Rodgers over the last few years, and his schedule is the easiest in the league among quarterbacks for 2023. A former first-round pick in the NFL draft, Love has the skills to outplay his average draft position and could be a late-round bargain.
