To put it bluntly, we might be wasting our time searching for a dark-horse MVP candidate for the 2023 NFL season.
Superstar quarterbacks tend to win MVP, with Patrick Mahomes (twice), Aaron Rodgers (twice), Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady being named winners the past six seasons. The last time a nonquarterback took home the trophy was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012, and he needed to rush for more than 2,000 yards to enter the conversation.
The days of running backs LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander and Marshall Faulk being in the mix yearly for MVP are long gone. (Running backs can’t even get a second contract nowadays, but that’s a different debate.)
SI Sportsbook has Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts as the favorites to win MVP in 2023. Surprise, surprise: all quarterbacks.
But there’s at least one running back out West who’s capable of stealing the award from the quarterbacks. And Rodgers might now be considered a dark-horse candidate, as he enters his age-40 season with a new team.
Here are our long-shot picks to win MVP:
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Matt Verderame: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers. If we’re talking about going with an off-the-board pick for MVP, it has to be a nonquarterback. So let’s roll with an elite offensive weapon on one of the league’s best teams.
Last year McCaffrey was spectacular despite splitting his time with the Panthers and 49ers, totaling 1,139 rushing and 741 receiving yards along with 13 total touchdowns. Having now had a full offseason to learn the system in San Francisco, the 27-year-old Stanford product should be even more dangerous in an offense loaded with All-Pros and Pro Bowlers.
Considering the 49ers’ quarterback situation, McCaffrey figures to see the ball plenty both in the running game and with quick passes. If San Francisco ends up being the NFL’s best team, he’ll be the central figure on a squad that will play at least five prime-time games, allowing him to showcase his talents for the nation on a consistent basis.
The MVP award has gone to a quarterback every year since 2012, but odds are if another player wins, it’ll be a running back. No receiver has ever won MVP, and a defender hasn’t done so since 1986, when the Giants’ Lawrence Taylor earned the accolade.
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Gilberto Manzano: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens. Yes, I’m taking a quarterback. Very bold of me. But Jackson isn’t a top-five betting favorite to win, and he dealt with injuries the past two seasons.
There’s some risk (and money to be made) with this pick. But Jackson will have plenty of motivation to earn his lucrative contract extension—he signed a five-year, $260 million deal to become the highest-paid player in the league.
The Ravens also upgraded Jackson’s skill players with the arrivals of Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers, the team’s first-round pick. This might also be Jackson’s best statistical season when it comes to passing categories, because new offensive coordinator Todd Monken plans on taking several deep shots throughout the 2023 season.
Even if Jackson doesn’t improve his passing numbers—he’s surpassed 3,000 yards in a season only once in his career, in 2019, when he won his first MVP award—he has a safe floor as a dynamic runner. The combination of rushing touchdowns and passing touchdowns will at least keep Jackson in the mix for MVP.
If Jackson stays healthy, this long-shot pick will probably be a favorite come December.
