The PGA Tour’s West Coast swing is fully underway. Before the chaotic madness of the WM Phoenix Open kicks into gear next week, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will offer plenty of intrigue and drama—if not a few lighter moments from the amateur pool—as the first tournament in February.
Fresh off his win at the Farmers Insurance Open, Max Homa won’t be at Pebble Beach, but plenty of Tour stalwarts like Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland and Matthew Fitzpatrick highlight an eclectic field.
Spieth will look to avenge his second-place finish from last year after finishing two strokes behind Tom Hoge.
While Hoge (+2000) is back in the field this year, the tournament hasn’t seen a repeat winner since Dustin Johnson went back-to-back in 2009-2010.
So who’s claiming the title this year and which bets should you place?
The crew at FTW has some ideas.
(Odds via BetMGM)
Who's winning?
Blake Schuster: Seamus Power (+2000).
There’s solid value here for Power, who is coming off a top-20 finish at HSBC Championship in Abu Dhabi. This will be his sixth time playing the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and after finishing ninth in 2022, it seems he’s finding his groove out there. He’ll just need to prove he can sustain his early round momentum throughout the weekend after tailing off in the past.
Andy Nesbitt: Andrew Putnam (+2500).
I don’t want to burn a big name here (which there aren’t tons of in this tournament) in my one-and-done pools so I’m going with a guy who is hot (made 14 cut in a row) and played well here last year (T6). He also had a T4 finish at the Sony Open a few weeks ago. So yeah, he’s playing some good golf right now.
Charles Curtis: Jordan Spieth (+1000)
Is it bad to take one of the favorites? Because his history there is too good to ignore. Plus those odds are pretty good for a golfer we know is a stud at Pebble Beach.
Who's a lock to finish Top 10?
Blake Schuster: Jordan Spieth (+105)
It’s almost impossible not to pick Spieth here at plus-money. In 10 attempts at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he’s finished Top 10 six times including each of the last three years.
Andy Nesbitt: Maverick McNealy (+188).
McNealy grew up near Pebble and knows the place really well. He also has two top-5 finishes here since 2000.
Charles Curtis: Viktor Hovland (+105)
Love that recent form, which I usually look hard at when I’m looking at top-10 finishers.
Who's missing the cut?
Blake Schuster: Scott Stallings (+188)
He’s missed the cut in four of eight appearances here including two of the last three. I’ll take a stab at him missing again with these odds.
Andy Nesbitt: Jordan Spieth (+333)
I hope I’m wrong here but he is coming off a missed cut at the Sony Open and it feels like you never know which Jordan Spieth you’re going to get on any given week.
Charles Curtis: Jordan Spieth (+333)
Didn’t I just say I’d bet on him to win. Yeah, but to Andy’s point: Spieth could either go off … or go off the leaderboard after Friday. Why not bet on both in a hedge of sorts?
Who's a longshot you like?
Blake Schuster: Davis Riley (+6600)
Are we still considering Riley a longshot these days or has he broken through? Either way, he shot two rounds in the 60s here last year but finished 49th. I’ll take a (small) flier on his improvement in his third go at the event.
Andy Nesbitt: Kevin Streelman (+10000)
He had six straight top 20s in this event before missing the cut here last year. So he’s comfortable here. Well, mostly comfortable here.
Charles Curtis: Troy Merritt (+10000)
An intriguing set of performances here in the past four years is enough to have me throw a few bucks down.
Fantasy one-and-done pick
Blake Schuster: Tom Hoge
I don’t feel great about his odds at a repeat. But I feel pretty confident I won’t be wishing I could still pick him again later on this season.
Andy Nesbitt: Andrew Putnam.
He’s my pick to win it all so let’s ride with him here!
Charles Curtis: Seamus Power
I might change my mind to Spieth by Thursday, but for now, this seems like a great pick early in the season.
Prop bets!
Blake: Nope!
Andy: Nope!
Charles: Nope!
Blake: 3 strokes
Andy: 1 stroke
Charles: 2 strokes
Pick One Tournament Special
Blake: Spieth in the final group of the final round
Andy: American winner
Charles: Matt Fitzpatrick in the final group of the final round
Pick One Cut Special
Blake: Fitzpatrick, Spieth & Hovland all make the cut
Andy: Hoge, McNealy and Power all make the cut
Charles: Putnam, Kuchar & Rose all to make the cut
