Based on current standings and draft lottery odds, the Houston Rockets would be guaranteed a top-five overall selection in the upcoming 2023 NBA draft. They also have another pick headed their way later in the round, most likely from the Los Angeles Clippers.
“Pray for Victor” (Wembanyama), some might say.
To project where Wembanyama and other top prospects stand, HoopsHype compiled 10 mock drafts from ESPN, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, The Ringer, NBADraft.net, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, Yahoo, SB Nation, and USA TODAY’s For The Win.
Then, HoopsHype gathered thoughts from multiple NBA executives and scouts for their insight on the projected first-round picks for the fourth edition of the aggregate mock draft to find the answer.
NOTE: These rankings reflect the composite score to get a feel for the overall consensus, not HoopsHype’s opinion. For example, if a player was the first pick on a publication’s mock draft, he received 60 points. If a player was second, he received 59 points, and so on. Each player’s consensus ranking was tabulated based on total points.
HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto compiled this analysis, while Alberto de Roa contributed research to this report.
NBA Mock Draft: After Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller is pushing Amen and Ausar Thompson for the No. 3 pick. Jarace Walker enters the Top 10.
Scouting reports and player comparisons of first-round picks from NBA execs on @hoopshype. https://t.co/5WM1WCdmxt
— Michael Scotto (@MikeAScotto) February 23, 2023
2022-23 NBA standings on Feb. 27
Teams within five games of Houston in the standings:
- 1. Houston, 13-47
- 2. San Antonio, 14-47, 0.5 games back (GB)
- 3. Detroit, 15-46, 1.5 GB
- 4. Charlotte, 19-43, 5.0 GB
The bottom-three teams have identical odds of landing a top-four pick in the May 16 draft lottery. However, there is a difference in the “floor” scenarios for those franchises. The team with the worst record cannot fall below No. 5 in the first-round order, whereas the second-worst team can drop to as low as No. 6, and so on.
Draft lottery odds, if Rockets finish with worst record
- No. 1: 14%
- No. 2: 13.4%
- No. 3: 12.7%
- No. 4: 12%
- No. 5: 47.9%
(pick odds via Tankathon)
1. Victor Wembanyama
(Boulogne-Levallois: Big, International, 7-2)
Previous rank: 1 (+0)
Best rank: 1 (ESPN, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, The Ringer, NBADraft.net, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, Yahoo, SB Nation, USA TODAY’s For The Win)
Worst rank: 1
Victor Wembanyama remains the unanimous No. 1 overall pick in all 10 mock drafts polled.
“I can’t think of anybody since LeBron James who was considered a better prospect than Wembanyama,” an executive told HoopsHype.
Wembanyama seemingly has no weakness in his game. He has a virtually unblockable shot, can create off the dribble, takes and makes one-legged three-pointers, and is a human fly swatter with the ability to switch in pick-and-roll defensive coverage.
2. Scoot Henderson
(Ignite: Guard, G League, 6-2)
Previous rank: 2 (+0)
Best rank: 2 (ESPN, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, The Ringer, NBADraft.net, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, Yahoo, SB Nation, USA TODAY’s For The Win)
Worst rank: 2
Scoot Henderson remains the unanimous No. 2 overall pick in all 10 mock drafts polled.
“One of the coaches last year on the G League Ignite said Scoot was the best player they had,” an NBA executive told HoopsHype, per Scotto. “That was a year ago. I knew he was a guy you had to watch. I’ve never heard anything negative about him. He’s got a chance to be really good. He’s got a better shot right now than Russell Westbrook, who he gets compared to.”
As the executive mentioned, Henderson and Westbrook are often compared, along with Derrick Rose, John Wall, and Donovan Mitchell, by NBA talent evaluators, as noted in HoopsHype’s previous aggregate mock draft.
Henderson has made strides with his shooting and leadership as a floor general this season. In any other class outside of a generational talent like Wembanyama, Henderson would be the No. 1 pick.
Scoot Henderson: ‘I feel like I can damn near do it all at this point’
3. Amen Thompson
(Elite: Wing, Overtime, 6-6)
Previous rank: 3 (+0)
Best rank: 3 (ESPN, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Yahoo, For The Win)
Worst rank: 7
Amen Thompson was the third overall pick in five of the 10 mock drafts polled and has maintained his current standing as the projected No. 3 pick in the last three aggregate mock drafts.
“The Thompson twins are NBA athletes, but in the NBA, you’ve got to be more than that… because everyone is that at the pro level,” an NBA scout said, as relayed by Scotto.
As the scout alluded to, Thompson shot 25 percent from beyond the arc this season. However, there’s intrigue in Thompson as a prospect due to his size and perimeter defense, with the expectation that his shooting mechanics will improve in the years ahead.
4. Brandon Miller
(Alabama: Wing, Freshman, 6-9)
Previous rank: 4 (+0)
Best rank: 3 (The Athletic, The Ringer, NBADraft.net)
Worst rank: 9
Brandon Miller was the No. 3 pick in three mock drafts and the No. 4 pick in three other mock drafts polled. He’s now considered the fourth overall pick in consecutive aggregate mock drafts.
On the court, Miller has drawn comparisons to an eight-time All-Star from NBA talent evaluators.
“Miller has the body and looks like Paul George,” an NBA scout told HoopsHype, per Scotto. “His mentality is going to be the biggest key. There are a lot of guys who look the part but don’t necessarily act the part. He’s a heck of a shooter.”
“The key with Miller will be with his weight because he might struggle to guard an NBA four,” an NBA executive added. “His ability to guard perimeter players will dictate where he plays, whether it’s the three or four, or whether it’s a combination of both in time.”
5. Ausar Thompson
(Elite: Wing, Overtime, 6-6)
Previous rank: 5 (+0)
Best rank: 4 (ESPN, SB Nation, Yahoo, For The Win)
Worst rank: 14
Ausar Thompson was the No. 5 pick in four of the 10 mock drafts polled. It’s the third consecutive time he’s projected as the fifth overall pick in our aggregate mock draft.
“The Thompson twins can step onto an NBA court next year and play defense immediately,” an executive told HoopsHype. “Offensively, they’re going to struggle. Neither Thompson twin can shoot the ball very well. If you look at the competitiveness they have on the level they’re playing on, they’re trying to shut down kids, defensively.”
Of the Thompson twins, Ausar is a slightly better shooter at 29.8 percent from beyond the 3-point arc.
Rest of Top 10, first round
- No. 6: Nick Smith, Arkansas, Guard
- No. 7: Cameron Whitmore, Villanova, Wing
- No. 8: Anthony Black, Arkansas, Guard
- No. 9: Jarace Walker, Houston, Big
- No. 10: Keyonte George, Baylor, Guard
Click HoopsHype’s story to access the reminder of the first round from their 2023 aggregate mock draft exercise.
