It’s a good time to be a Western Conference team.
The West might feature the defending Stanley Cup champion Golden Knights and a couple of other championship contenders, but the mushy middle of the conference — the teams just above, on and just below the playoff bubble — looks weak compared to the incredible depth of the Eastern Conference.
That ample opportunity for upward growth this season probably won’t matter too much for the Blackhawks, who remain relatively early in their rebuilding timeline in spite of rookie Connor Bedard’s presence.
But for decent, yet imperfect, teams such as the Kings, Flames, Canucks, Kraken and Jets, that conference imbalance is a godsend. And for aspirational East teams such as the Devils, Maple Leafs and Rangers and up-and-comers such as the Red Wings, Sabres and Senators, it’s a massive handicap.
Every NHL season packs some surprises, however, and 2023-24 likely will be no different. Here are the Sun-Times’ projected standings for every division:
CENTRAL DIVISION
1. Stars: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger might not be the NHL’s most famous or flashy core trio of forward, defenseman and goaltender, but they became one of the best during the course of last season.
The continued growth of those three cornerstones, all of whom are only 24 years old, might lift the Stars into the top echelon of the league. Matt Duchene’s arrival and Wyatt Johnston’s development add even more upside to a stacked 12-man forward group. More runs to the conference final seem inevitable in the years ahead.
2. Wild: Their teamwide shooting percentage dropped from second in the league in 2021-22 to 23rd in 2022-23, yet they still managed to finish with 103 points. A bit of regression to the mean in 2023-24 might go a long way.
But second-year forward Matt Boldy and rookie defenseman Brock Faber are probably the biggest X-factors in determining whether the Wild will be elite or merely good this season. Boldy and Faber reaching their high ceilings — supplementing Kirill Kaprizov up front and Jared Spurgeon in the back — might go an even longer way.
3. Avalanche: Behind elite forwards Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen and defensemen Cale Makar and Devon Toews — a foursome that remains one of the NHL’s best — the Avalanche’s roster isn’t as intimidating as it used to be.
Offseason forward additions Ryan Johansen, Tomas Tatar, Ross Colton and Jonathan Drouin will attempt to paper over some of those depth issues. The Avs still have a decent chance to win the Central and a high likelihood to make the playoffs, but the Stars and Wild look superior to start the season.
4. Jets: The Jets’ window of contention is closing rapidly, with Pierre Luc-Dubois and Blake Wheeler already gone (to the Kings and Rangers, respectively) and Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele slated for free agency in 2024. For now, however, Hellebuyck — one of the NHL’s best goalies — is a difference-maker that keeps this team respectable.
The Jets did well to get two useful forwards in Alex Iafallo and Gabriel Vilardi back for Dubois, and their fans can relish Kyle Connor’s contract having three years left and at least get excited about defenseman Josh Morrissey’s pivot to stardom in the middle of his career.
5. Coyotes: The playoffs still seem ambitious for the Coyotes, but this team looks significantly better than it has the last few seasons. Clayton Keller has become a true No. 1 forward, Logan Cooley might be Bedard’s biggest threat for the Calder Trophy and there’s also quite a bit of intriguing young offensive talent — including Matias Maccelli, Barrett Hayton and Dylan Guenther — beneath those two.
Then there’s the influence of tiny Mullett Arena. It’s so disconcerting to opponents that it seems to give the Coyotes a huge advantage. They earned 21 of 28 victories last season at home.
6. Predators: In Juuse Saros, the Predators have a similar difference-maker in goal to the Jets’ Hellebuyck. And Roman Josi remains a Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman.
The issue is the Predators’ forward group is nearly barren. It might be the worst in the division at this point. Their top-scoring forward returning from last season is Thomas Novak, who produced only 43 points, and 32-year-old Ryan O’Reilly and 34-year-old Gustav Nyquist — two summer additions — won’t revive things themselves.
7. Blackhawks: How the Hawks’ young players perform this season will matter far more than the team’s record. But if Bedard screams past the playing-it-safe projections for his point production and Lukas Reichel, Kevin Korchinski and Arvid Soderblom take big steps of their own, it’s conceivable the Hawks might climb ahead of one or two middling division rivals.
Conversely, finishing in the league basement and earning another top-five pick wouldn’t be a bad outcome, either.
8. Blues: The Blues look rudderless at this point, with no established long-term rebuilding plan and no major strengths to speak of on their roster.
The defense corps — led by Justin Faulk, Colton Parayko and Torey Krug — quietly has declined into one of the NHL’s worst. In goal, Jordan Binnington has become better at igniting controversy than saving shots. Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich aren’t needle-moving offensive weapons, nor is offseason addition Kevin Hayes.
PACIFIC DIVISION (playoff teams in bold)
The Oilers finally boast the kind of deep, talented depth chart around Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to emerge as a legitimate Cup contender, whereas the Knights already have proven they are too.
Meanwhile, the Central’s mediocrity opens the door for possibly five Pacific teams to sneak into the playoffs. The Kings and Kraken will try to repeat their solid 2022-23 seasons, and the Flames and Canucks will look to eliminate the dysfunction that doomed them last season.
1. Oilers
2. Golden Knights
3. Flames
4. Kings
5. Canucks
6. Kraken
7. Ducks
8. Sharks
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
Not much has changed in the Metropolitan since last season. The young and explosive Devils look like contenders to stay, the Hurricanes’ roster remains arguably the deepest and most well-rounded in the league and the Penguins made an Erik Karlsson-sized addition to their alarmingly old core.
But the Rangers, Islanders and Capitals are running back basically the same lineups, limiting their potential for growth.
1. Devils
2. Hurricanes
3. Rangers
4. Penguins
5. Islanders
6. Capitals
7. Blue Jackets
8. Flyers
ATLANTIC DIVISION
The Atlantic might be the NHL’s best division in years, with seven teams entering the season believing they are playoff-caliber.
Patrice Bergeron’s retirement in Boston and Andrei Vasilevskiy’s injury in Tampa leave big holes in those two longtime contenders’ lineups. The Panthers must prove they can maintain their 2023 playoff form rather than their 2022-23 regular-season form. And the rebuilt Senators, Sabres and Red Wings (now touting Alex DeBrincat) are poised for breakthroughs — but only one or two ultimately will succeed.
1. Maple Leafs
2. Panthers
3. Bruins
4. Senators
5. Lightning
6. Sabres
7. Red Wings
8. Canadiens
CONFERENCE FINALS
West: Stars defeat Oilers
East: Maple Leafs defeat Hurricanes
STANLEY CUP FINAL
Stars defeat Maple Leafs
