The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because there are two to four wideouts and a tight end that are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.
That means comparing the schedule strength between 2021 and 2022 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.
The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and the same values are applied to their 2022 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.
The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.” The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year.
Best schedule swings
Kyle Pitts / Drake London (ATL) – Applying schedule strength to receivers is never straightforward, but at least in Atlanta their receivers are mostly just Pitts and the rookie London. The Falcons trade the worst schedule for receivers for 2021 for an advantageous No. 6. A shaky backfield means the passing game will be needed often, though the quarterback situation is less than optimal to start their rebuilding year.
Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson (WAS) – Streaking from the No. 28 up to the No. 1 schedule for receivers is bound to benefit McLaurin and even the rookie Dotson who is projected to be a starter. There’s a new quarterback in Washington, but Carson Wentz should be good enough to help the Commander’s receivers to find some advantage in the lightest cast of opponents.
D.J. Moore / Robby Anderson (CAR) – The Panthers passing game declined last year, especially for Anderson, but should see at least an incremental turnaround, no longer fighting one of the worst schedules for receivers. Sam Darnold is running out of chances to prove himself but should be able to connect better with Moore and Anderson for 2022.
Stefon Diggs / Dawson Knox BUF) – One of the elite passing offenses in the league hardly needs any extra advantages, but the Bills swing over to one of the lightest in the NFL and Josh Allen already has chemistry with Diggs, Knox and Gabriel Davis. The wideouts already ranked No. 1 in the NFL with 443 targets in 2021. Maybe this year, they’ll catch even more.
Worst schedule swings
Amari Cooper / Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) – The Browns ranked in the Bottom-3 for most receiving categories for wideouts last year and upgrading to an aging Amari Cooper may not be the boost they need. Facing the worst schedule for receivers after flopping against the No. 9 last year doesn’t bode well for an increase in receiver production.
Cooper Kupp / Allen Robinson (LAR) – There’s no mistaking that the Rams face a much tougher schedule this year, but Kupp was already churning out astronomic stats and Robinson is a clear upgrade for the No. 2 wideout. The Rams are likely to be challenged to run well, and Matt Stafford led them to a Super Bowl win last year as the No. 1 offense in wideout catches, yards, and touchdowns. This isn’t a feel-good addition to their outlook, but if any receivers can be better than their schedule, it is the Rams.
Justin Jefferson / Adam Thielen (MIN) – Similar to the Rams, the Vikes enjoyed one of the lightest schedules for receivers in 2021, and now face the No. 25 toughest slate of games for the position. And as with the Rams, the Vikings receivers – principally Jefferson – are elite and should be better than their opponents.
Diontae Johnson / Chase Claypool (PIT) – This is a concern for the Steelers wideouts and tight ends. Their schedule was just average last year, and falls to only No. 31 while installing a new quarterback(s) for the first time since 2004. And the receivers were already ranked No. 31 last year with just 10.9 yards per catch by wide receivers. The ability to throw downfield will improve regardless of which non-Roethlisberger quarterback starts, but connecting with receivers could be tougher regardless.
