It’s mock draft time—and for this particular exercise, we’re not going to project trades.
That, to be clear, doesn’t mean there won’t be any. I’d expect there’ll be a few. But I don’t think there’ll be a ton. And the reason why can tell you a lot about the class in general.
Everyone’s trying to move down. Teams in the first dozen picks, like the Jets, Giants, Panthers and Commanders, have asked around about options to drop back a few spots (or more) in the order. Teams at the bottom of the first round have talked to those picking early in the second, asking that they keep them in mind if they’re looking to come up and get the fifth-year option on a certain player late Thursday night.
And that reflects the lack of blue-chip talent, and high-end talent, at the top of the draft this year. It also illustrates where the meat of the class is—in the second and third rounds. In part because of what the COVID-19 season of 2020 did (keeping a lot of guys in school by delaying talent development via game and practice cancellation, and giving everyone an extra year of eligibility), the difference between the 15th and 50th players in this year’s draft isn’t huge, nor is the fall-off from the top of the second round to the bottom of the third.
That’s why teams would rather have, say, five picks in the second and third rounds than one in each of the first three rounds. Which has meant a lot of teams looking to deal down, and few trying to trade up.
So there’s another layer of intrigue for Thursday night, a night that promises to bring a lot more mystery than we’ve seen out of the draft the last few years. (Best example: For the first time since 2018, the first two picks are in question going into draft week.) Here, then, is my best guess on how we get clarity a little over 48 hours from now …
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (Travon Walker); Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports (Drake London); Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports (Kenny Pickett)
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
I’d take Aidan Hutchinson, I think. But I’ve come around on Walker a little, a super athlete who was used in a rotation, and probably a little out of position at Georgia. It’d be interesting to see where he lands in Mike Caldwell’s Todd Bowles-esque, blitz-heavy 3–4 look. And neither Evan Neal nor Ikem Ekwonu would surprise me here, as an investment back into Trevor Lawrence.
2. Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
No need for the Lions to get cute here. Last year, they got a war daddy for the offensive line in Penei Sewell. This time, they’ll get one for the defensive front, who’ll likely be a team captain in short order, joining a line that Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell have already sunk significant resources into. The wild card here? I’ve heard they like Detroit native Sauce Gardner.
3. Houston Texans: Ickey Ekwonu, OT, N.C. State
This was close between Ekwonu and Neal—I’ve heard a few more people connect Ekwonu to Houston over the last few days. The Texans can start Ekwonu at guard and move him outside if they move Laremy Tunsil next year.
4. New York Jets: Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
I had Ekwonu here in my previous mock. I think Ickey being gone makes this easier for the Jets—they get a rock-solid scheme fit at a big need position. If both he and Gardner are there, I think it’s a very real discussion in that room.
5. New York Giants: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
I’ve had Cross here for a few weeks, and I’m not going to move off that now. The Giants solve their left tackle issue, and Andrew Thomas flips to right tackle, which many believe is his more natural spot.
6. Carolina Panthers: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
Ideally, Carolina would use this pick to deal down and build capital to fill in the 131-pick hole it currently has that runs all the way from this slot to the fourth round. But Neal falling into their lap, and helping filling a hole that’s bigger than quarterback for Carolina, wouldn’t be a bad scenario.
7. New York Giants (via Bears): Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
The Giants stop the talented Duck’s fall—and they land a potential star at a premium position, while trusting in Brian Daboll’s ability to manage different personalities (something he’s been able to do as an offensive coach over the course of his career).
Robert Hanashiro/USA TODAY Sports
8. Atlanta Falcons: Drake London, WR, USC
This, I believe, will come down to London vs. Garrett Wilson, and I think the Falcons would take London just based on London being Arthur Smith’s type—a tough, hard-blocking, big, physical receiver.
9. Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos): Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
I’ve heard Stingley is in a group of players Seattle likes, along with Cross and Thibodeaux, and his selection would be the first pick higher than 90 that the Seahawks have spent on a corner since John Schneider and Pete Carroll arrived in 2010. New coordinator Clint Hurtt has coached in Carroll’s system the last five years, but before that worked for Vic Fangio. So how the Seahawks value the position could be changing.
10. New York Jets (via Seahawks): Jermaine Johnson, DE, Florida State
This could be Jameson Williams, too, but I’m going with the more immediate need, and a bookend for Carl Lawson in a Robert Saleh scheme that demands a fleet of solid edge rushers.
11. Washington Commanders: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
If the Falcons take Wilson, and London somehow slips, I think that’d be the ideal scenario for Washington. In this one, Ron Rivera takes home a very solid, do-everything program fit who happens to be very close with the veteran receiver he’s trying to re-sign.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
New Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, in best-player-available mode, takes home a unique talent that’s a little polarizing, but should find a fit in Ed Donatell’s Fangio-esque scheme (just like Derwin James has been, playing for Brandon Staley).
13. Houston Texans (via Browns): Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
Wilson goes home to Texas and gives Nick Caserio a true No. 1 for his offense—and Davis Mills a guy he can really grow with in Year Two. This particular receiver, a polished route runner who can play every receiver spot, should be able to hit the ground running.
14. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
The Ravens are always on the lookout for unique physical talents, and Davis has a ceiling coming into the league like Haloti Ngata did 16 years ago. So while this isn’t Baltimore’s biggest need, it’s easy to see where new coordinator Mike Macdonald could make Davis a real foundation piece for the future.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (via Dolphins): Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Simply put, Williams is everything the Eagles were hoping Jalen Reagor would be. And remember, a year ago, Philly had pretty good luck taking a Bama star coming off a torn ACL (Landon Dickerson).
16. New Orleans Saints (via Eagles, via Colts): Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Penning’s got a rep as a mauling right-tackle type. But many in the league believe he can stay on the left side with a little technique work, and the Saints’ need at the position is clear.
17. Los Angeles Chargers: Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College
This is Chargers GM Tom Telesco landing one in the middle of the fairway—Penning might’ve fit the bigger need, but Johnson’s a really good player who’s safe and would pair well with Rashawn Slater as a Justin Herbert bodyguard for years to come.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints): Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
McDuffie is a little smaller than what the Eagles like at the position, but he’s scheme versatile, and his ability to play different coverages will, I think, appeal to coordinator Jonathan Gannon. And he’s a top-notch kid who’s been as impressive in team interviews as any player in the entire class.
19. New Orleans Saints (via Eagles): Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
I really haven’t been of a mind that the Saints were going to take a quarterback. But I’ve heard the front office really likes Pickett (word is the coaches might lean a little more toward Matt Corral), and it’s a mild surprise he’s still here. And the idea they could walk away from Thursday with a left tackle and quarterback under cost control would justify the price of the trade they made with the Eagles.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
I figure I’ll just stick with a connection I’ve heard made since January and February. The rumors then held that Mike Tomlin and OC Matt Canada have wanted a mobile quarterback, and were willing to bend the offense creatively to accommodate one, and here sits Willis for them late in the first round.
21. New England Patriots: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
I’ve been eyeing McDuffie as a New England fit for a month and see Zion Johnson much the same way. With both gone, here’s another heady player at a need spot who tested really well. I liked the idea of Quay Walker here, too. But Elam would make a lot of sense.
22. Green Bay Packers (via Raiders): Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
The perfect type of movable piece for Joe Barry, and one with a lot of room to grow, Walker brings on-the-ball/off-the-ball versatility, and should wind up going a little earlier than people might think.
Matthew O'Haren/USA TODAY Sports
23. Arizona Cardinals: Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Dotson is the perfect speedy slot replacement for Christian Kirk. And with Kirk gone, and Andy Isabella probably out too, the Cardinals could use another receiver who can roll to play alongside DeAndre Hopkins.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
The time has come for Dallas to start getting younger on the offensive line, and Green is a guy who can play at multiple spots along the line, and eventually could grow into the kind of centerpiece Zack Martin has been on the interior.
25. Buffalo Bills: Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
The Bills’ balance across the roster gives the flexibility to do whatever suits them, and play the board as it falls to them (maybe even putting a running back like Breece Hall in play). That said, with Tre’Davious White returning from an ACL injury and Levi Wallace now in Pittsburgh, Gordon would both be a value and fill a need here.
26. Tennessee Titans: Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
I really wanted to, and almost did, shoehorn Desmond Ridder here—especially since the Titans don’t have a second-rounder. But adding another young offensive lineman makes more sense for a team that was the No. 1 seed in the AFC a year ago, and struggled to replace Jack Conklin the last two years.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
The Bucs are nearly certain to take a player who can help right away. And if you’re willing to take on Wyatt’s off-field issues, the Georgia star fits the bill for a team that’s relied on Ndamunkong Suh and Jason Pierre-Paul, and could stand to add another disruptive youngster on the defensive front.
28. Green Bay Packers: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The Packers catch a slipping playmaker, who is a super-sized slot his next team will have to have a plan for. I have confidence Matt LaFleur is creative enough to get the most out of him.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (via 49ers): David Ojabo, DE, Michigan
The Chiefs can afford to draft and stash with one of these picks, and if Ojabo can get right again after popping his Achilles at his pro day, he has the potential to be one of the top 15 or so players in this draft. The downside is the injury may cost him his entire rookie year.
30. Kansas City Chiefs: Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
This would be another example of K.C. pivoting and getting bigger at receiver—and Watson’s 4.36 speed would make dealing with him and Marques Valdez-Scantling (another big, fast target) a problem, once Watson gets his feet wet. I initially had Clemson’s Andrew Booth here, but he had hernia surgery, and it’d be tough give the Chiefs two injured guys.
31. Cincinnati Bengals: Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
And I initially had Iowa C Tyler Linderbaum here, but Booth addresses a more immediate need for the Bengals, and Cincinnati could always circle back with someone like Nebraska’s Cam Jurgens in the second round.
32. Detroit Lions (via Rams): Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
An absolute assassin on the back end who played all over the Bulldogs’ secondary and carries significant upside, Cine is another very strong fit for what Campbell and Holmes are looking to put together in the Motor City.
