We’re two weeks into the 2022 NFL preseason and firmly in the middle of 2022 fantasy draft season. That means it’s time to overreact to games that don’t mean anything.
Sure, the league’s three-game exhibition slate ultimately shapes the back end of 53-man rosters across the league — but it’s not going to tell us anything about how Tom Brady or Justin Jefferson are going to look. Entrenched stars play even less in August than in years past. This leaves games looking more like start-up spring league football than the genuine article.
That doesn’t mean some stars begin shining in the summer. Rhamondre Stevenson made his case to take over the New England Patriots’ backfield last August when he led the league in preseason rushing yards. Lamar Jackson planted his flag as a future MVP by dazzling second- and third-string defenses in 2018.
With precious little else to obsess over in the world of football, these preseason decisions and performances expand to fill the ovoid void the game leaves in our hearts. Hype trains across the league have picked up steam, affecting futures bets and fantasy drafts alike as the sands of summer’s hourglass tumble. Which too-early trends are here to stay?
1
Isaiah Likely's arrival means we've all been worrying about the Ravens' passing game for nothing
The Ravens had a hyped draft class in 2022, adding high-profile prospects Tyler Linderbaum, Kyle Hamilton and David Ojabo to positions of need. The player who may have the biggest impact this season may be a player who lasted until Day 3 and wasn’t even the first tight end Baltimore drafted that weekend.
Isaiah Likely put up big numbers at Coastal Carolina but slipped to the fourth round thanks to wildly underwhelming workout results in pre-draft testing. That perceived lack of athleticism hasn’t slowed his production. In two preseason games, he’s had 12 catches for 144 yards and a touchdown, including a 100-yard performance in Week 2 where he was responsible for 45 percent of the team’s passing offense.
He’s not just moving the chains; he’s making defenses look stupid for trying to stop him.
Most missed tackles forced on receptions among rookies this preseason:
👑 Isaiah Likely – 9 pic.twitter.com/peo9Tj2FpG
— PFF (@PFF) August 23, 2022
Likely’s performance has been a stark contrast to the other young targets vying for snaps on a wide open depth chart. 2021 fourth-round pick Tylan Wallace has one target this preseason thanks to a knee injury suffered in the team’s opening game. Josh Oliver, who started the first game of the preseason at tight end, has three catches for 17 yards to show for it. Through two exhibition games, Likely has twice as many receptions than the next closest member of the roster.
So much to love about Isaiah Likely but one thing that stands out–his spatial awareness vs zone coverage. Important bc Lamar will always face significantly more zone than man, for obvious reasons. pic.twitter.com/2zk6IkVfhy
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) August 22, 2022
His talent has ESPN’s Jamison Hensley calling him “the leading candidate” to be the third man up on Lamar Jackson’s receiving wish list. Can the former Chanticleer take advantage of that opportunity?
Buy or sell?: Sell.
Likely is great, but roasting second-team defenses when there are few other viable targets on the field is a very different experience than breaking into the Ravens’ regular lineup on Sundays. Rashod Bateman, James Proche, Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay haven’t even played this preseason. Asking his speed and lateral quickness to hold up against NFL starters may be a big ask as well.
Isaiah Likely is a TE prospect in the 2022 draft class. He scored a 4.88 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 520 out of 1014 TE from 1987 to 2022. https://t.co/y0C4ZWGE7x #RAS pic.twitter.com/ZdBjtPR6C4
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 26, 2022
I’d love it if Likely could make an immediate impact and emerge as a 70-catch, 800-yard target right out of the gate for the Ravens. But I’m not going to predict something like that based off two strong performances against USFL-caliber defenses.
2
Daniel Jones finally has the tools he needs to, well, not thrive, but not entirely collapse into himself like a dying star
This is Daniel Jones’ last chance to prove he can lead the New York Giants to something better than six wins. Fortunately, it’s also his first season without Dave Gettleman as his general manager, and he’s got a new head coach who can hopefully push him to the potential Gettleman once saw in him three years ago.
Brian Daboll arrived from Buffalo after helping turn John Allen from beleaguered former top-10 draft pick into an MVP candidate. Doing the same with Jones might get him tried for witchcraft and burned at the stake. But so far, the results have been optimistic:
Jones came into the second week of the preseason fighting off the idea he’d be stuck in a timeshare with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. He finished it with a 14-of-16 passing performance for 116 yards. Even his incompletions were on target, with that lone turnover bouncing off the hands of rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger.
Bellinger is just one addition aimed at improving Jones’ receiving corps — though watching a ball go from his fingertips and into an opponent’s arms was a visceral flashback to Evan Engram’s time in New Jersey. The Giants beefed up his receiving corps by drafting shifty slot wideout Wan’Dale Robinson and should get healthy seasons from Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney after both were non-factors in 2021.
More importantly, an upgraded offensive line could give him the pocket space he needs to make plays downfield.
I’ve never seen Daniel Jones with so much space… pic.twitter.com/jMqiDyNS1R
— Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonESM) August 21, 2022
Buy or sell: I can’t believe I’m saying it but… buy.
There’s a lot to like around Jones right now. He’ll have time to throw and the kind of run-after-catch playmakers capable of making checkdowns look like big plays — a.k.a. the formula that allowed Jimmy Garoppolo to make it to two NFC title games in the last three seasons. His offensive line is better, and Saquon Barkley may not have been fully absorbed by the swamp around him.
God help me, I like the quarterback who runs like a baby giraffe. I like the tissue soft schedule his Giants have. This could be New York’s first winning record since 2016.
3
The Jaguars were smart to give Christian Kirk a four-year, $72 million contract
Kirk’s role in the Jacksonville offense has been unambiguous this preseason. He’s in the lineup to run routes, create openings downfield and give Trevor Lawrence the playmaking top wideout he lacked in 2021.
#Jaguars WR Christian Kirk last night:
* 83% snap rate
* 92% route rate
* 8 targets (38% share)📈📈📈
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 21, 2022
Kirk spent about half his time in the slot and half split wide, showcasing the kind of versatility that could free him from opponents’ top cornerbacks and create mismatches. That’s massive for Trevor Lawrence, who spent his rookie season as an unwilling knight in Urban Meyer’s crusade against common sense. In 2022, he gets to prove he can be an effective warrior when his head coach doesn’t send him into battle blindfolded and riding an ostrich.
Lawrence threw eight of his 21 passes Kirk’s way, completing five for 54 yards and creating the midrange passing game Jacksonville would otherwise have to rely on a 32-year-old Marvin Jones to provide. Those two will create space for Laviska Shenault and Travis Etienne to bring in passes near the line of scrimmage and gash defenses after the catch. While there’s no DJ Chark style deep threat on the roster, Kirk has the chops to fill that role when his young QB needs.
It was eye-opening when Kirk got a four-year, $72 million contract this offseason despite zero 1,000-yard seasons in his career. So far he looks like Lawrence’s unquestioned top option and the guy capable of lifting this passing offense to a higher level.
Buy or sell?: Buy at a fantasy level, sell as far as overall impact on the offense.
Kirk is going to get a lot of targets and likely is on his way to career highs in both receptions and receiving yards. Lawrence has something to prove, and it’s clear his newest veteran wideout is his huckleberry. That’s great!
But Kirk’s solid 2021 didn’t lead to team success in the long run. He wasn’t able to elevate the Cardinals last fall when DeAndre Hopkins was injured. Without his former All-Pro distracting defenses, Kirk’s yards per target fell from 10.7 to 7.8. He had only one touchdown catch across those eight weeks despite upping his catches and yards per game.
Arizona went 3-5 to finish the season with Kirk serving as WR1. That may be a factor of Kliff Kingsbury’s coaching or Kyler Murray’s late-season lack of adjustments, but if it couldn’t happen with the Cardinals, I’m not ready to say he can do it for the Jaguars. Doug Pederson seems significantly better suited to raise a questionable QB’s profile than Kingsbury, however, so there’s still room for Kirk to make this prediction look stupid.
4
The Washington Commanders' backfield will be a fantasy (and possibly real life) mess
Things are real sloppy in Washington. This is an evergreen statement, but it certainly applies to a backfield that should have been one of the team’s strengths in 2022.
Antonio Gibson’s third season as a pro could have been the backdrop of his rise to stardom thanks to his explosive speed and ability to break tackles. He was supposed to pair with pass catching specialist J.D. McKissic to provide the cover needed to paper over Carson Wentz’s declining play behind center.
Instead, Gibson has been shunted to third-team offense duties and saddled with kick returns while rookie Brian Robinson has risen up the depth chart. The heart of the issue is fumble problems, but a deeper concern remains about Gibson’s dwindling effectiveness last fall. His yards per carry, yards after contact and broken tackle rate all fell from his rookie campaign. Though he finished 2021 with a 146-yard performance against the lowly Giants, he combined for 91 total rushing yards in the three games that preceded it.
Ron Rivera voiced his support for Antonio Gibson, but he hasn't committed to Gibson being the starting RB out of the Commanders' backfield.
Rookie Brian Robinson Jr. is firmly in the mix. pic.twitter.com/EONTQvVxAI
— NBC Sports Commanders (@NBCSCommanders) August 20, 2022
Robinson was dynamic in his first preseason game, running for 26 yards and a touchdown on six carries. While he was less efficient against the Chiefs one week later, he was successful on 75 percent of his handoffs by running for either five-plus yards or a first down. That has this third round rookie who only had one season of 100 carries or more at Alabama in line to take over RB1 duties in D.C.
Buy or sell: Sigh. Buy.
Gibson at his best is a bottle of angry bees thrown into a city bus. He’s explosive and unpredictable and absolutely not what you want to see when you’re tired and already frustrated about your day.
J.D. McKissic does not make this play.
Brian Robinson does not make this play.Antonio Gibson makes this play.pic.twitter.com/40ZkA2fHwJ
— Jack Cavanagh ↗️ (@javanagh87) August 22, 2022
But he’s never shown RB1 consistency at any level, thanks to his history as a wideout. He’s a unique weapon in the vein of say, Curtis Samuel, the other absurd athlete currently left to rot in Washington. Because that’s what this franchise does to special talents; it shaves off their edges and turns them into toddler-safe Nerf versions of their best selves.
Gibson won’t get what he needs to make the leap in Washington because, under Daniel Snyder’s stewardship, no one ever does. Good luck, Brian Robinson.
5
Josh Dobbs deserves a chance to guide the Browns' offense while Deshaun Watson is suspended
Josh Dobbs has an opportunity in Cleveland. The starting quarterback two spots ahead of him, Deshaun Watson, will miss 11 games this season after being accused of 24 counts of sexual misconduct and what the league described as a pattern of predatory behavior. The Browns’ primary backup is Jacoby Brissett, who has completed just 59 percent of his passes with a 75.6 passer rating since a knee injury derailed a promising start to his 2019 season in Indianapolis.
That leaves Cleveland’s starting quarterback spot, for 11 games, more wide open than any in the league (even Seattle). Dobbs has taken advantage. He’s completed 72 percent of his passes, notched a 104.2 passer rating and provided the kind of mobility this preseason that would allow an easy transition for Watson’s return.
They tried to take his jersey but @josh_dobbs1 said NOT TODAY.
📺: #PHIvsCLE on @NFLNetwork (check local listings)
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/GH49hZ3d4L pic.twitter.com/DZGr9nIAT7— NFL (@NFL) August 21, 2022
Dobbs has shown enough to cement his place on the roster. He may have done enough to convince head coach Kevin Stefanski he’s a worthy starter.
Buy or sell?: Sell.
Dobbs is a great story as an aerospace engineer with a football hobby. But he’s had five years in the NFL and thrown 17 regular season passes. He couldn’t beat out Mason Rudolph for snaps in Pittsburgh. The 141 yards he threw for against Philadelphia were three times more than he’s had in his official pro career.
It’d be awesome if Dobbs put it all together now. And very unlikely.
