Mock drafts are useful when it comes to ranking individual prospects in the eyes of NBA draft experts. But when it comes to analyzing draft lottery odds and the importance of certain draft slots, it’s also important to understand the gap — or lack of one — between various pick ranges.
For example, in the 2021 NBA draft, a consensus top three quickly formed among Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, and Evan Mobley. Thus, while Houston winning one of the four lottery spots was beneficial in and of itself, it was also important to land in the top three — which they did, at No. 2 — to emerge with one of the truly elite prospects.
In 2022, there appears to be a significant dropoff after the top-five prospects of Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, Auburn’s Jabari Smith, Duke’s Paolo Banchero, Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, and Duke’s AJ Griffin.
Should that perceived gap remain in place after the upcoming conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament as part of “March Madness,” that could make it more important for the Rockets to finish with the NBA’s worst record (at the moment, they are tied in the win column for that).
The team that finishes with the worst record cannot drop below No. 5, which would seemingly make Griffin or Ivey the worst-case scenario. As far as sub-optimal lottery outcomes go, that’s a very tolerable result.
With that in mind, here’s a look at how the tiers look — along with the perceived potential of players in each — in the eyes of For The Win draft guru Bryan Kalbrosky. For our purposes, we’ll stick with draft prospects in the top 20, since Houston owns both its own first-round pick and one from Brooklyn, which would currently be at No. 15 overall. The Rockets do not currently own any 2022 second-round picks.
Courtesy of Bart Torvik and Hoop-Math, Kalbrosky included data to help illustrate the playing style of each individual who plays at the NCAA level. Consider it an early March Madness primer.
🚨 NEW BIG BOARD 🚨
Before the chaos of March Madness begins, I've ranked 101 NBA draft prospects. I have them all in six unique tiers and I have a player spotlight, with fancy graphics, for one prospect in each group.
Check it out, via @ForTheWin:https://t.co/cAtOViCDm1
— Bryan Kalbrosky (@BryanKalbrosky) March 3, 2022
