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Riley Hamel

2022 Honda Classic odds, key statistics, best bets and PGA Tour picks

The last week of the West Coast swing did not disappoint as Joaquin Niemann collected his second PGA Tour victory and entered the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking for the first time in his career (He’s also No. 19 in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings). Now it’s time to kick off the Florida swing with this week’s Honda Classic.

To start, the field is nowhere close to as loaded as it was last week in the Pacific Palisades. None of the top 10 players in the world have made the trip to PGA National, however, there are still some big names looking to leave the Palm Beach area with a win.

Golf course

PGA National (Champion)
Par 70
7,125
Greens: Bermuda
Defending champion: Matt Jones

A detailed view of the Bear Trap statue outside of the 15th hole during the final round of The Honda Classic golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Weather

Day Temperature Conditions Percent chance of rain Wind & Direction
Tuesday 79 Partly Sunny 16 percent 17 MPH (ESE)
Wednesday 80 Partly Cloudy 12 percent 11 MPH (E)
Thursday 80 Partly Cloudy 14 percent 14 MPH (ESE)
Friday 81 Partly Cloudy 6 percent 11 MPH (ESE)
Saturday 81 Mostly Sunny 5 percent 10 MPH (E)
Sunday 83 Mostly Sunny 6 percent 9 MPH (SSE)

Key statistics

Strokes Gained: Approach: This is a tough golf course, one of the toughest the guys will play all year long. It will be critical to make it as easy as possible with hitting greens and getting through the Bear Trap unscathed. Let’s target players who’ve been striking their irons great recently.

Bermuda putting: Putting on Bermuda greens can be tricky, especially for players who don’t see them every week (AKA: the guys who don’t live in the South). May be a good idea to target players who putt well on this kind of surface.

Data Golf Information

Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. Ridgewood Country Club, 2. Olympia Fields Country Club, 3. Liberty National Golf Club

Trending: 1. Joaquin Niemann (last three starts: T-6, T-8, 1), 2. Daniel Berger (T-5, T-20, MC), 3. Denny McCarthy (T-6, T-12, MC)

Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Daniel Berger (6.1 percent), 2. Sungjae Im (5.9 percent), 3. Joaquin Niemann (4.8 percent)

Latest Twilight 9 episode

Andy and I discuss the Saudi Arabia situation, the Genesis Invitational, Rory McIlroy taking shots at Phil Mickelson, this week’s Honda Classic, several picks for the week, and more.

Apple | Spotify | Google | Other links

Betting odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.

Player Odds
Sungjae Im (+1200)
Daniel Berger (+1500
Louis Oosthuizen (+2000)
Billy Horschel (+2000)
Tommy Fleetwood (+2000)
Brooks Koepka (+2000)
Joaquin Niemann (+2000)
Shane Lowry (+3000)
Alexander Noren (+4000)
Brian Harmon (+4000)

Betting card for the 2022 Honda Classic

Last week’s results (Genesis Invitational)

Rory McIlroy – Top 20: Cash (+110)
Will Zalatoris – Top 20: Miss
Adam Hadwin – Top Canadian: Undecided (not a single Canadian made the cut, might be a push)
Adam Scott – Top 20: Cash (+170)
Joaquin Niemann – Top South American: Cash (+170)
Xander Schauffele – Top 20: Cash (+110)

Rory McIlroy – Outright: Miss
Xander Schauffele – Outright: Miss
Will Zalatoris – Outright: Miss

+4.6 units on position plays (if Hadwin Top Canadian is a push), and -3 units on outrights at Genesis Invitational.

+13.39 units on position plays in 2022. +17.5 units on outright plays in 2022.

Billy Horschel – Top 20 (+125)

Billy Horschel hits his tee shot on the 18th hole of the North Course at Torrey Pines during the first round of the Farmers Insurance Open golf tournament, Wednesday, January 26, 2022, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

After what he said about Phil Mickelson and the Saudi Arabian league, tough to not put him on the card this week. Horschel has been trending toward a win throughout 2022: T-36 at the Sony, T-11 at the Farmers, and T-6 in Scottsdale.

In his last five appearances at the Honda, Horschel missed the weekend in 2018 but has also accumulated three top 20s which includes two top 10s and a top five.

Keith Mitchell – Top 20 (+170)

Keith Mitchell celebrates after winning the Honda Classic golf tournament at PGA National (Champion). Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Mitchell’s career at the Honda has been the ultimate mixed bag. In four appearances he has a win, two missed cuts, and a T-53 last season (although, that T-53 came after a stretch of missing four cuts in his last five starts).

He’s made four starts so far in 2022 and despite missing the cut at the Farmers, in his other three starts, doesn’t have a finish worse than T-12.

Of the players in this field over his last 12 rounds, Mitchell is first in SG: Ball-striking, second in SG: Off the Tee, and 11th in SG: Approach.

Alex Noren – Top 20 (+170)

Sweden’s Alex Noren watches his drive from the 1st tee during a practice round for The 149th British Open Golf Championship at Royal St George’s, Sandwich in south-east England on July 14, 2021. (Photo by Glyn KIRK)

Noren’s career at the Honda is also a mixed bag. In his last three appearances, he’s finished third, missed the cut, and tied for 46th. A few weeks ago, Noren bagged a top 10 at the WM Phoenix Open and has made the weekend in his last three starts. In a weaker field, don’t be surprised if he makes a run.

*Full betting card will be on my Twitter sometime Wednesday, February 23rd.

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