2022 Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Receivers

The strength of schedule for receivers lumps wide receivers and tight ends together since each team uses the positions differently. The reality is that while the overall averages are interesting, no position is as sensitive to individual matchups as are receivers facing particular defensive backs. This makes the  analysis less accurate than for running backs and quarterbacks.

The analysis also considers the venue. There is a difference between how defenses respond either home or away, and that creates 64 “different defensive matchups” depending on where the game is played.

See also:
2022 fantasy football schedule strength – Quarterbacks
2022 fantasy football schedule strength – Running Backs
2022 fantasy football schedule strength – Receivers

The average passing fantasy points allowed by defenses for receivers last year is at the bottom of this page for reference.

Total Points

For fantasy contests and some leagues, only total points matter. Below are the total points for each passing offense according to their schedule using the averages allowed in 2021 by those defenses.

WAS	JAC	BUF	NYG	PHI	ATL	LAC	DEN	KC	CIN	CAR
713	710	710	705	703	701	699	693	692	687	687
CHI	DET	TB	DAL	NO	SEA	IND	GB	NE	SF
685	683	682	682	681	681	681	677	677	677
HOU	TEN	MIA	MIN	LAR	ARI	LV	BAL	NYJ	PIT	CLE
675	675	674	673	672	662	660	659	653	649	646

The NFC East all fare the best while the AFC North goes against the toughest slate of games for receivers. But these are total numbers for all receivers, so they are less revealing for individual performances.

Weekly Play

Three different views are below. Week 1 to 17 is the full-season fantasy strength of schedule. “The Dorey Rule” says to draft like the season only lasted the first six weeks for a hot start. Finally, Weeks 15 to 17 represent the most common fantasy playoffs. “Good” games were when they faced one of the top 22 venues from last year; “Bad” was when they played in one of the worst 22. Bye weeks were considered “Bad”.

Notable schedules

Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson (WAS) – The Commanders switch to Carson Wentz at quarterback while Terry McLaurin comes off two straight 1,000-yards season and 1.16 pick Jahan Dotson is expected to start. McLaurin has been light on touchdowns but that should get some relief facing the lightest schedule for receivers. The Commanders only three of the toughest venues and an NFL-high ten games facing favorable matchups. After Week 7, they only face one tough opponent while the new passing game should be coming together.

Marvin Jones / Christian Kirk / Evan Engram (JAC) – While not the flashiest starting wideouts, the Jaguars get a reset from the disaster of 2021, and Trevor Lawrence will use his trio of receivers to get back on track. Other than Weeks 8 to 10, the schedule serves up nine positive matchups and starts with six of the first seven games versus weaker secondaries. After the initial month of the season, it should be apparent if the Jaguars are on the path to improvement.

Kenny Golladay / Kadarius Toney (NYG) -A change in coaching should help the lackluster passing of Daniel Jones, and while the schedule isn’t chock full of light matchups, it is kind with only one game against a tougher venue. It’s a middle-of-the-road slate of opponents but a chance for the new offense to come together.

A.J. Brown / Devonta Smith / Dallas Goedert (PHI) – The expectations for the Eagles shot up with the acquisition of A.J. Brown to the passing offense. A favorable set of opponents only makes improvement even more likely. Their schedule through Week 13 is as advantageous as any in the NFL with eight favorable matchups and no tough weeks. That goes away with three of the four next weeks facing stingy defensive venues right when fantasy playoffs kick off.

Rashod Bateman / Devin Duverney / Mark Andrews (BAL) – The Ravens lost Marquise Brown and are left with only Andrews as a proven receiving weapon. Making it worse – they own the worst schedule for receivers. They face just two favorable matchups, and those are done by Week 7. Bateman is a popular sleeper as the new No. 1 wideout, but he faces eight of the worst defensive venues.

Diontae Johnson / Chase Claypool (PIT) – The Steelers enter their new era without Ben Roethlisberger and could switch quarterbacks during the season. The receivers adjusted to the short-yardage passes last year and while they can once again run downfield, they’ll be shadowed by mostly solid defensive backs. After Week 1,  the next six games contain five tough venues. That should slow down progress while the Steelers decide on which quarterback to rely on.

DeAndre Hopkins / Marquise Brown (ARI) – Hopkins is already suspended for six weeks, and after he returns, the Cardinals only enjoy one softer matchup while going against five of the tougher venues over the next seven weeks. With Christian Kirk gone, Kyler Murray has to adjust to new starting wideouts without Hopkins while going against a tougher stretch of games over the first half of the season. 

2022 weekly grid

Week	ARI	ATL	BAL	BUF	CAR	CHI	CIN	CLE
1	KC	NO	@NYJ	@LAR	CLE	SF	PIT	@CAR
2	@LV	@LAR	MIA	TEN	@NYG	@GB	@DAL	NYJ
3	LAR	@SEA	@NE	@MIA	NO	HOU	@NYJ	PIT
4	@CAR	CLE	BUF	@BAL	ARI	@NYG	MIA	@ATL
5	PHI	@TB	CIN	PIT	SF	@MIN	@BAL	LAC
6	@SEA	SF	@NYG	@KC	@LAR	WAS	@NO	NE
7	NO	@CIN	CLE	bye	TB	@NE	ATL	@BAL
8	@MIN	CAR	@TB	GB	@ATL	@DAL	@CLE	CIN
9	SEA	LAC	@NO	@NYJ	@CIN	MIA	CAR	bye
10	@LAR	@CAR	bye	MIN	ATL	DET	bye	@MIA
11	SF	CHI	CAR	CLE	@BAL	@ATL	@PIT	@BUF
12	LAC	@WAS	@JAC	@DET	DEN	@NYJ	@TEN	TB
13	bye	PIT	DEN	@NE	bye	GB	KC	@HOU
14	NE	bye	@PIT	NYJ	@SEA	bye	CLE	@CIN
15	@DEN	@NO	@CLE	MIA	PIT	PHI	@TB	BAL
16	TB	@BAL	ATL	@CHI	DET	BUF	@NE	NO
17	@ATL	ARI	PIT	@CIN	@TB	@DET	BUF	@WAS
18	@SF	TB	@CIN	NE	@NO	MIN	BAL	@PIT
	DAL	DEN	DET	GB	HOU	IND	JAC	KC
1	TB	@SEA	PHI	@MIN	IND	@HOU	@WAS	@ARI
2	CIN	HOU	WAS	CHI	@DEN	@JAC	IND	LAC
3	@NYG	SF	@MIN	@TB	@CHI	KC	@LAC	@IND
4	WAS	@LV	SEA	NE	LAC	TEN	@PHI	@TB
5	@LAR	IND	@NE	NYG	@JAC	@DEN	HOU	LV
6	@PHI	@LAC	bye	NYJ	bye	JAC	@IND	BUF
7	DET	NYJ	@DAL	@WAS	@LV	@TEN	NYG	@SF
8	CHI	@JAC	MIA	@BUF	TEN	WAS	DEN	bye
9	bye	bye	GB	@DET	PHI	@NE	LV	TEN
10	@GB	@TEN	@CHI	DAL	@NYG	@LV	@KC	JAC
11	@MIN	LV	@NYG	TEN	WAS	PHI	bye	@LAC
12	NYG	@CAR	BUF	@PHI	@MIA	PIT	BAL	LAR
13	IND	@BAL	JAC	@CHI	CLE	@DAL	@DET	@CIN
14	HOU	KC	MIN	bye	@DAL	bye	@TEN	@DEN
15	@JAC	ARI	@NYJ	LAR	KC	@MIN	DAL	@HOU
16	PHI	@LAR	@CAR	@MIA	@TEN	LAC	@NYJ	SEA
17	@TEN	@KC	CHI	MIN	JAC	@NYG	@HOU	DEN
18	@WAS	LAC	@GB	DET	@IND	HOU	TEN	@LV
	LAC	LAR	LV	MIA	MIN	NE	NO	NYG
1	LV	BUF	@LAC	NE	GB	@MIA	@ATL	@TEN
2	@KC	ATL	ARI	@BAL	@PHI	@PIT	TB	CAR
3	JAC	@ARI	@TEN	BUF	DET	BAL	@CAR	DAL
4	@HOU	@SF	DEN	@CIN	@NO	@GB	MIN	CHI
5	@CLE	DAL	@KC	@NYJ	CHI	DET	SEA	@GB
6	DEN	CAR	bye	MIN	@MIA	@CLE	CIN	BAL
7	SEA	bye	HOU	PIT	bye	CHI	@ARI	@JAC
8	bye	SF	@NO	@DET	ARI	@NYJ	LV	@SEA
9	@ATL	@TB	@JAC	@CHI	@WAS	IND	BAL	bye
10	@SF	ARI	IND	CLE	@BUF	bye	@PIT	HOU
11	KC	@NO	@DEN	bye	DAL	NYJ	LAR	DET
12	@ARI	@KC	@SEA	HOU	NE	@MIN	@SF	@DAL
13	@LV	SEA	LAC	@SF	NYJ	BUF	@TB	WAS
14	MIA	LV	@LAR	@LAC	@DET	@ARI	bye	PHI
15	TEN	@GB	NE	@BUF	IND	@LV	ATL	@WAS
16	@IND	DEN	@PIT	GB	NYG	CIN	@CLE	@MIN
17	LAR	@LAC	SF	@NE	@GB	MIA	@PHI	IND
18	@DEN	@SEA	KC	NYJ	@CHI	@BUF	CAR	@PHI
	NYJ	PHI	PIT	SEA	SF	TB	TEN	WAS
1	BAL	@DET	@CIN	DEN	@CHI	@DAL	NYG	JAC
2	@CLE	MIN	NE	@SF	SEA	@NO	@BUF	@DET
3	CIN	@WAS	@CLE	ATL	@DEN	GB	LV	PHI
4	@PIT	JAC	NYJ	@DET	LAR	KC	@IND	@DAL
5	MIA	@ARI	@BUF	@NO	@CAR	ATL	@WAS	TEN
6	@GB	DAL	TB	ARI	@ATL	@PIT	bye	@CHI
7	@DEN	bye	@MIA	@LAC	KC	@CAR	IND	GB
8	NE	PIT	@PHI	NYG	@LAR	BAL	@HOU	@IND
9	BUF	@HOU	bye	@ARI	bye	LAR	@KC	MIN
10	bye	WAS	NO	@TB	LAC	SEA	DEN	@PHI
11	@NE	@IND	CIN	bye	@ARI	bye	@GB	@HOU
12	CHI	GB	@IND	LV	NO	@CLE	CIN	ATL
13	@MIN	TEN	@ATL	@LAR	MIA	NO	@PHI	@NYG
14	@BUF	@NYG	BAL	CAR	TB	@SF	JAC	bye
15	DET	@CHI	@CAR	SF	@SEA	CIN	@LAC	NYG
16	JAC	@DAL	LV	@KC	WAS	@ARI	HOU	@SF
17	@SEA	NO	@BAL	NYJ	@LV	CAR	DAL	CLE
18	@MIA	NYG	CLE	LAR	ARI	@ATL	@JAC	DAL

 

Fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks

These are the values applied to this year’s schedule to determine strength of schedule for wide receivers and tight ends.

TEN	49.5	DAL	42.1	@LAR	39.0
CLE	48.6	SF	41.9	LVR	39.0
@CIN	48.5	@NO	41.7	@LVR	38.7
BAL	47.9	@JAC	41.6	@TB	38.3
MIA	47.5	SEA	41.5	@KC	38.2
@DET	47.3	WAS	41.3	@CAR	37.9
@MIN	46.4	@ARI	41.2	@PIT	36.9
@BAL	46.2	@NYJ	41.2	LAC	36.6
GB	46.1	ATL	41.1	NYJ	36.5
CHI	45.8	@DAL	41.0	@NE	36.1
KC	45.6	ARI	40.9	@DEN	35.7
@IND	45.4	DET	40.6	@CLE	34.9
@SEA	45.1	TB	40.5	CIN	34.7
@LAC	44.9	@ATL	40.4	@NYG	34.6
@PHI	44.7	@TEN	40.3	BUF	34.2
MIN	44.1	CAR	40.1	NO	34.0
JAC	43.8	@SF	39.7	@MIA	33.7
LAR	43.8	HOU	39.7	DEN	33.5
@WAS	43.3	PIT	39.4	@CHI	33.4
NYG	43.3	@GB	39.3	PHI	33.4
IND	43.0			NE	27.0
@HOU	42.3			@BUF	23.3