Mariners fans haven’t viewed their team in a playoff game since 2001. They extended their streak of no postseason appearances to 20 years last season, but Seattle won 90 games despite being outscored by 51 runs. Their pitching staff finished 16th in ERA (4.30) while ranking higher in bullpen ERA (3.88 – eighth). The Mariners’ relievers picked up 45 wins and 51 saves with 27 losses. Seattle scored 697 runs (23rd), hit 199 home runs (13th) and stole 64 bases (18th).
Their big push in free agency was the signing of SP Robbie Ray ($115 million for five seasons). The Mariners locked up RP Andres Munoz for four years ($7.5m), hoping that his triple-digit fastball develops into a shutdown pitch in the ninth inning. They lost SP Tyler Anderson, SP Yusei Kikuchi, SP James Paxton (BOS), RP Sean Doolittle, 3B Kyle Seager and OF Jake Bauers (CIN) to the free agency. Seattle acquired 2B Adam Frazier from the Padres for RP Ray Kerr and OF Corey Rosier.
The Mariners have a pair of potential impact young outfielders (Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez) who project to be the foundation of their offense for much of the remaining decade. Seattle also has developing depth in their starting lineup to help push them higher in the offensive rankings.
Their bullpen structure gives the Mariners the ability to shorten games while having multiple options to close out wins. Seattle has a chance to be one of the better pitching teams in baseball over the last three innings.
If SP Robbie Ray repeats his command, Seattle found a developing ace. SP Marco Gonzales and SP Chris Flexen should keep the Mariners in many games. However, the development of SP Logan Gilbert and SP Justin Dunn are the keys to a postseason appearance.
The playoffs are within reach this season for the Mariners.
© Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
SP Starting Lineup
OF Jarred Kelenic
The Mariners acquired Kelenic from the Mets, who had made him the sixth overall in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school.
Over three years in the minors, he hit .294 with 151 runs, 38 home runs, 138 RBI and 41 stolen bases over 788 at-bats. He played well at three levels in 2019 (.291/80/23/68/20 over 443 at-bats), putting him on the fast track to the majors.
Seattle decided not to push him in the COVID-19 2020 season, leading to a year off. After five games at AAA (10-for-27 with six runs, two home runs and five RBI) last year, Kelenic earned his chance with the Mariners. However, he only had eight hits over his first 83 games in the majors (.096 with seven runs, two home runs and six RBI), leading to a trip back to AAA.
Kelenic dominated over his 24 games in the minor leagues (.306 with 23 runs, seven home runs, 23 RBI and four steals over 98 at-bats) while showing an excellent approach (13 walks and 17 strikeouts). However, he looked lost at the plate in his second trip with Seattle (.154 over 52 at-bats with five runs, one home run and seven RBI) based on his insane strikeouts. His production played well over his final 202 at-bats (29 runs, 11 home runs and 30 RBI), but Kelenic only hit .223 with 58 strikeouts (25.4%).
Fantasy Outlook
Even with a high strikeout rate (28.1), Kelenic still flashed his potential with the Mariners. His average hit rate graded well at AAA (1.950) and the majors (1.934), supporting a 30-plus home run player. He owns the tools to offer an elite approach with more experience in the majors and his contact batting average (.264 with Seattle) should jump closer to his minor-league career (.383) in his sophomore campaign in the majors. His ADP (133) ranks him as a top 80 hitter drafted this season. Kelenic is a must-target based on his combination of power and speed. The Mariners should hit him in a favorable part of the batting order, leading to a floor of .270 with 90 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBI and 15 stolen bases.
2B Adam Frazier
Between Pittsburgh and San Diego over the past three seasons, Frazier appeared 365 of a possible 384 games. He set career-highs in batting average (.305), runs (83) and steals last year, leading to him ranking 86th in SIscore (-0.23) for hitters.
Frazier finished with his lowest average hit rate (1.347) over the past five seasons, highlighted by his weakness in his barrel rate (1.0 – 307th) and hard-hit rate (25.2 – 305th). He has a line-drive swing (29.4% – 25.9 in his career), with a fading fly-ball rate (29.6) and an empty HR/FB rate (3.3).
After hitting .331 over his first 348 at-bats with four home runs and 29 RBI, Frazier barely had a pulse after the All-Star break (.266/30/1/14/5 over 229 at-bats). He remains tough to strike out (10.9%). His walk rate (6.2) was the lowest of his career.
Fantasy Outlook
Even with a bump in speed, his stolen bases are only a bonus to his skill set. In essence, Frazier is a two-category player with a neutral ceiling. He almost looks like the same player as 2B Tony Kemp but with a better opportunity and less upside. His ADP (318) fits a fantasy manager cheating the middle infield position and looking to offset a team build of low average power. Unfortunately, fantasy championships aren’t won with pawns, so I’ll avoid the early checkmate and look for a more balanced player elsewhere.
OF Mitch Haniger
Haniger proved to be an excellent buy last year, thanks to his best output in runs (110), home runs (39) and RBI (100). His average hit rate (1.917) was the best of his career for an entire season. In addition, he excelled with runners on base (RBI rate – 17).
His bat played well vs. lefties (.286 with 16 home runs and 35 RBI over 203 at-bats). However, Haniger had a slight regression in his strikeout rate (24.5) and walk rate (7.8). He set a new top in his HR/FB rate (21.0) while offering a balanced swing path.
Any value in speed looks to have left the building after his injury season in 2019. Volume of at-bats helped Haniger finish 32nd in SIscore (3.58) for hitters thanks to his edge in three categories.
Fantasy Outlook
Based on his ADP (109), he would be a value with a repeated season. This year, the Mariners’ lineup should produce more runs, giving Haniger more chance to score and drive in runs. A rebound in batting average is a possibility. I’ll set his bar at .265 with 90 runs, 30 home runs and 90 RBI with a couple of steals.
OF Kyle Lewis
After playing well late in 2019 (.268/6/13) over 75 at-bats, Lewis gave fantasy managers a productive season in 2020. His stats projected over 550 at-bats would come to 99 runs, 29 home runs, 75 RBI and 13 stolen bases.
He started last year on the injured list with a right knee injury. Lewis struggled through 36 games (.246 with 15 runs, five home runs and 11 RBI over 130 at-bats) before seeing his season end after having surgery in June. A setback in September ended his year with no more playing time.
Lewis took more walks (12.9%) over the past two seasons than he did in the minors (9.7). He finished 2021 with a slight improvement in his strikeout rate (25.2), falling in line with his path on the farm.
Over his first 407 at-bats with the Mariners, Lewis hit .258 with 62 runs, 22 home runs, 52 RBI and seven steals. His average hit rate (1.743) supports 30 home run upside.
Lewis hit .260 with 30 home runs, 171 RBI and 10 steals over 1,089 at-bats over four seasons in the minors.
Fantasy Outlook
A knee injury hindered his development in 2017 and 2018 while being Baseball America’s College Player of the Year in 2016 (.395 with 70 runs, 20 home runs, 72 RBI and six steals over 223 at-bats). The season, his ADP (294) is a better fit for fantasy teams. However, I’m concerned with his ability to stay healthy. Lewis is on a path to hit .260 with 25 home runs with 500 at-bats.
1B Ty France
Over five seasons in the minors, France hit .294 with 69 home runs, 352 RBI and 16 stolen bases over 1,957 at-bats. His bat improved in 2018 between AA and AAA (.267 with 22 home runs, 96 RBI and three steals over 509 at-bats). In 2019 at AAA, France turned into a beast over 296 at-bats (.399 with 83 runs, 27 home runs and 89 RBI) while posting a career-high in his average hit rate (1.932) and a fantastic contact batting average (.482). His walk rate (9.0) in the minors graded well, with a favorable strikeout rate (16.1).
France hit .265 over his first 325 at-bats in the majors with 11 home runs and 47 RBI. Last season, the Mariners gave him the best opportunity of his career, leading to a steady skill set in four categories and the 72nd ranking by SIscore (0.30) for batters. However, his average hit rate (1.530) failed to match up higher ceiling set in 2018 and 2019 in the minors.
He finished with a step forward in his strikeout rate (16.3 – 24.2 over his first 356 plate appearances in the majors). France had a low fly-ball rate (31.4 – 31.7 in 2020) over the past two years. His barrel rate (6.8 – 194th) wasn’t high enough to foresee a jump in home runs.
Fantasy Outlook
France had most of his at-bats at first base last year, helped by Evan White struggling with injuries and regression in his approach at the plate. With a bounce-back in White’s game, Seattle will mix and match France and Frazier between second base and outfield while also having some days at the corner positions. His ADP (138) prices him as a foundation bat. Improving player, but France looks overpriced for me based on him losing some at-bats in 2022. His hot second half (.321/46/10/37 over 277 at-bats) also drives his price point this season.
3B Abraham Toro
Over 442 at-bats between AA and AAA in 2019, Toro hit .324 with 17 home runs, 80 RBI and four steals. He only has 120 at-bats of experience at AAA (.392/27/3/21/2). After 35 productive games for Houston (.211 with 17 runs, six home runs, 20 RBI and three stolen bases), the Mariners acquired Toro in late July. His season ended with starting at-bats over the final two months (.252 with 28 runs, five home runs, 26 RBI and three steals over 226 at-bats).
His contact batting average (.272) has been extremely low in his time in the majors. Toro finished with an improved strikeout rate (14.4) and walk rate (8.3) while having more strength in both areas in the minors (17.4/11.2). Last year, he failed to hit a home run against left-handed pitching (.250 with eight RBI over 108 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
With 3B Kyle Seager no longer on the roster, Toro has a path to starting at-bats. He looks the part at the plate while not making enough hard contact at this point of his career to be helpful in batting average and home runs. His ADP (260) in the NFBC in late January paints him as a starting player based on his price point. With 450 at-bats, I expect some drag in batting average with 60 runs, 15 home runs and 60 RBI. I prefer to draft him as a bench player while also understanding his potential to be much better in 2022.
OF Jake Fraley
In his last two seasons in the minors, Fraley proved he could handle AA pitching (.313 with 11 home runs, 47 RBI and 16 stolen bases over 230 at-bats) while also receiving 192 at-bats at AAA (.287 with 11 home runs, 40 RBI and nine steals). His walk rate (9.4) and strikeout rate (19.0) came in above the league average in the minors.
After losing OF Kyle Lewis to a knee injury, Fraley made the Mariners out of spring training. His bat looked overmatched over six games (1-for-10 with eight walks and three strikeouts), leading to a trip down to AAA. Seattle called him back up on the last day of May. Over the next 15 games, Fraley flashed starting fantasy value (.311 with 11 runs, four home runs, 15 RBI and three steals over 45 at-bats) while taking 14 walks.
Pitchers owned him over his next 29 games (.193 over 83 at-bats), thanks to a spike in his strikeout rate (32.3). Fraley missed the second half of July with COVID-19 and the start of September with a shoulder injury. He ended the year with only seven hits over 36 at-bats with no home runs and six RBI.
His walk rate (17.4) was elite with Seattle, but Fraley still needs to clean up his strikeout rate (26.8).
Fantasy Outlook
I’m intrigued by Fraley’s bat and his ability to take walks. His struggles with lefties in 2021 (.169 over 71 at-bats with one home run, six RBI and 30 strikeouts) point to a platoon role. In draft champion formats, he had a favorable ADP (642). He should be treated as a handcuff for OF Kyle Lewis or potentially a bridge player to OF Julio Rodriguez.
C Tom Murphy
Over seven seasons in the minors, Murphy hit .277 with 93 home runs, 326 RBI and 15 steals over 1,737 at-bats.
The Mariners never gave him over 537 at-bats over the last two years, leading to 67 runs, 29 home runs and 74 RBI with a .236 batting average. His strikeout rate (32.8) has been an issue in the majors while an average walk rate (8.8). In addition, he struggled against right-handed (.170 with three home runs and 12 RBI, 49 strikeouts over 135 at-bats).
Murphy allowed 49 wild pitches over the past two seasons, with regression throwing out bases runners (9-for-53) in 2021.
Fantasy Outlook
His swing path gives him 30 home run upside if ever given 500 at-bats, but his defense and swing-and-miss approach suggest fewer at-bats this season. He has never had over 400 at-bats at any season of his career. His ADP (489) puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft formats.
SS J.P. Crawford
Seattle gave Crawford 160 games to prove his worth in the majors last year. Volume of at-bats (619) led to a slight edge in runs (89) and his batting average (.273) beat the league. His contact batting average (.335) improved in back-to-back years.
Most of his power and RBI production came in June (.352/17/3/14/2 over 108 at-bats) and September (.312/22/3/16 over 122 at-bats). Crawford has a bottom-tier average hit rate (1.379), highlighted by a sliding fly-ball rate (30.8), weak HR/FB rate (5.8), shallow hard-hit rate (30.6) and minuscule barrel rate (2.4).
His walk rate (8.4) and strikeout rate (16.6) grades well.
Fantasy Outlook
The Mariners handed Crawford the bulk of his at-bats (449) in the leadoff spot. His combination of walks and batting average made sense, but Seattle needs a better player to push higher in the offensive rankings. He has enough size (6-2 and 200 pounds.) to figure out a better swing path. Last year, Crawford finished 112th in SIscore (-1.76) for batters. His ADP (325) makes him an easy target for any believers. Unfortunately, he is the wrong kind of player to fight for in fantasy drafts. Crawford offers no real advantage in any area without more speed or power.
Bench Options
OF Taylor Trammell
Trammell has already been traded twice after getting drafted in the first round (35th) of the 2016 June Amateur Draft. Over five seasons in the minors, he hit .269 with 294 runs, 45 home runs, 244 RBI and 118 stolen bases over 1,826 at-bats.
Fantasy managers took Trammell for a ride last year after making the Mariners out of spring training. Unfortunately, contact was a massive problem (41 strikeouts over 95 plate appearances), leading to a .157 batting average with 12 runs, four home runs, 11 RBI and two stolen bases. At AAA, his bat had more life (.263/43/12/49/8 over 274 at-bats).
His stolen bases (118 over 1,826 at-bats) and walk rate (12.2) give him leadoff upside in the minors while owning a league-average strikeout rate (22.7). With Seattle, Trammell whiffed 42.1% of the time.
Fantasy Outlook
Once Trammell cleans up his approach in the majors, he should be a good piece of the Mariners’ offense. He has plenty of upside in speed and his average hit rate made strides at AAA (1.736) and the major (2.240) last season. His ADP (729) looks to be in the lost and found department in the NFBC. Trammell is a player to follow as his speed could be relevant at some point in 2022.
C Cal Raleigh
Seattle has three viable options at catcher in 2022. Raleigh emerged in 2019 between High A and AA, leading to a .251 batting average with 64 runs, 29 home runs, 82 RBI and four steals over 455 at-bats. Last year, his bat showed growth at AAA (.324/34/9/36/3 over 176 at-bats).
Raleigh drew some attention from fantasy managers after his callup to the majors in 2021, but his approach (52 strikeouts and seven walks over 138 at-bats) didn’t come along for the ride. He hit only .180 with two home runs and 13 RBI.
Fantasy Outlook
His average hit rate at all levels supports 30-plus home runs if given 500 at-bats. Raleigh is a better game at catcher than his early ADP (598) in the NFBC shows. His defense projects to be better than C Tom Murphy, so I would keep track of his bat this season.
1B Evan White
Seattle drafted him with the 17th pick in the 2017 MLB June Amateur Draft after playing well over three college seasons (.356 with 17 home runs, 109 RBI and 18 stolen bases over 655 at-bats). The Mariners signed White to a six-year, $24 million contract in November of 2019 despite having 18 career at-bats at AAA.
In 2019, he hit .293 over 365 at-bats at AA with 18 home runs and 55 RBI while missing some development time due to a hip injury in April. However, his bat shined in June (.371 with eight home runs and 19 RBI over 97 at-bats).
In his first two seasons with Seattle, White has been overmatched at the plate (strikeout rate – 37.6). Last year, he struggled over 97 at-bats (.144 with eight runs, two home runs and nine RBI) with some improvement in strikeouts (31). Unfortunately, his season ended in mid-May with a hip injury that ended up needing surgery in July.
Fantasy Outlook
White is a better player than he has shown, and the Mariners believed enough in his bat to sign him early to a multi-year contract. His ADP (713) seems dismissive in the NFBC based on his talent potential for a starting job. White has a lot to prove, but Seattle should give him their starting first base job in 2022. He projects as a .280/80/20/80 player once his swing improves in the majors.
Top Prospect
OF Julio Rodriguez
Seattle signed Rodriguez in 2017 at the age of 17 out of the Dominican Republic. Over three seasons in the minors, he hit .331 with 177 runs, 30 home runs, 152 RBI and 32 stolen bases over 838 at-bats. Last year Rodriguez gained 174 at-bats of experience at AA (.362 with 35 runs, seven home runs, 26 RBI and 16 steals). His approach (strikeout rate – 18.9 and walk rate – 10.2) already grades at the major-league average.
Rodriguez missed some development time in 2017 and 2020 with left wrist and hand injuries.
Fantasy Outlook
The Mariners should start him out at AAA while being on the fast track to the majors. Rodriguez is on a similar path as Juan Soto. He doesn’t have elite speed and his power will have a higher ceiling once he fills out. His ADP (279) in the National Fantasy Baseball League Championship puts him in the majors early in 2022. Future beast and his bat may come a lot quicker than some expect.
Starting Pitching
SP Robbie Ray
A trip to the American League and a home schedule in multiple smaller ballparks didn’t hurt Ray’s success. He led the AL in ERA (2.84), WHIP (1.045), innings pitched (193.1) and strikeouts (248).
His push to elite ace status came from the best command of his career (2.4 walks per nine), showcased by his strike rate (66.0) and first-pitch strike rate (61.5). Before arriving in Toronto, Ray only had a first-pitch strike rate of more than 60% in one other season (2015 – 60.7).
Batters hit .210 against him, which fell in a range of 2017 (.199) and 2018 (.216). Right-handers blasted 27 of his 33 home runs allowed while hitting .216 with 46 walks and 204 strikeouts. He pitched well at all three Blue Jays venues (TD Ballpark – 3.33 ERA, Sahlen Field – 2.93 ERA and Rogers Center – 2.04 ERA). Ray gave up only six of his 17 home runs over 53 innings in Canada (1.02 per nine). He pitched more in the top of the strike zone over the past two seasons (51.5 and 44.2% fly-ball rate).
A good portion of his struggles with home runs came in May (10 over 29.1 innings), plus two other poor outings (July 21st – three home runs over five innings to Boston and September 30 – four home runs to the Yankees over 5.1 innings).
His average fastball (94.6) had the highest velocity of his career. Ray dominated with his slider (.171 BAA), four-seamer (.223 BAA) and show me changeup (.188 BAA). His changeup was a new pitch that he only threw to right-handed batters.
Fantasy Outlook
With a new five-year deal for $115 million, Ray needs to prove his growth is repeatable. A move to Seattle should help his overall stats, but he still has to solve his issues with long balls and not give back his gains in command. His ADP (47) prices him as a top 15 starter drafted in the early draft season in the NFBC. I don’t believe last year was an outlier, but I have concerns that his slider usage (over 30% over the past three years) could lead to an elbow issue. Also, I would drop his arm down a few notches in the pitcher rankings with any drop in fastball velocity in March. Just a reminder, his career WHIP is 1.321 and he only has one other season with a WHIP under 1.330 (2017 – 1.554).
SP Marco Gonzales
After two starts, Gonzales already allowed 12 runs, 22 baserunners and five home runs over 10.1 innings. By the end of April, he was on the injured list for five weeks with a left forearm strain.
Gonzales went 10-5 over his final 23 starts with a 3.45 ERA and 100 strikeouts over 133 innings. Over this span, he served up 24 home runs (1.6 per nine). Gonzales allowed 12 runs, 19 baserunners and five home runs over 8.1 innings in his two other disaster starts. His regression in long balls came vs. right-handed batters (.242 BAA with 23 home runs, 37 walks and 79 strikeouts over 392 at-bats).
He finished with a change in philosophy to batters, leading to a much higher fly-ball rate (47.9 – 38.1 in his career). His average fastball (88.6) continues to fade in velocity, but batters only hit .225 against his four-seamer. His changeup (.191 BAA) and curveball (.236 BAA) rated well while struggling with his cutter (.288 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
A forearm issue can lead to TJ surgery, so I would closely watch Gonzales’s arm in spring training. A battle with home runs and a low strike rate invites disaster innings. When on his game, Gonzales pounds the strike zone, helping his secondary pitches. His ADP (301) puts him in the free-agent pool in 12-team leagues. He has a knack for winning games, but his career ERA (4.06) should be enough to temper expectations. Easy fade for me, but I’m a fantasy snob.
SP Chris Flexen
Flexen battled his way through eight seasons in the minors, leading to a 43-31 record with a 3.61 ERA and 513 strikeouts over 588 innings. However, his lack of success at AAA (4.43 ERA and 179 strikeouts over 170.2 innings) and the Mets (3-11 with an 8.07 ERA and 49 strikeouts over 68 innings) led him to a trip to Korea. His stuff played well overseas in 2020 (8-4 with a 3.01 ERA and 132 strikeouts over 116.2 innings).
With the Mariners last year, Flexen had five disaster games (25 runs, 46 baserunners and six home runs over 21.2 innings) over his 31 starts. He had a 2.68 ERA, 1.133 WHIP and 109 strikeouts over his other 158 innings.
His struggles with right-handed batters (.297 with nine home runs over 371 at-bats) should be a red flag. He barely threw his changeup to righties (5.6%).
His fastball came in at 92.9 MPH. Flexen has a plus changeup (.157 BAA), but batters had success with his four-seamer (.270 BAA), cutter (.311 BAA) and curveball (.290 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Flexen will throw strikes, but he lacks any swing-and-miss pitches. His changeup gets batters out while not having enough usage (15.3%) to save him when Flexen is behind in the count. His ADP (374) in the NFBC is above my trust zone. He is a possible double-starter with a chance at a hot ride when Flexen is throwing the ball well. His goal this season is a better approach/pitch to get right-handed batters out.
SP Logan Gilbert
Over his last two seasons in college, Gilbert went 21-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 270 strikeouts over 201.1 innings. Seattle drafted him with the 14th overall pick in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft.
After five great starts at A-ball in 2019 (1.59 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 22.2 innings), Gilbert held form at High A (1.73 ERA and 73 strikeouts over 62.1 innings). His arm also performed well after a promotion to AA (2.88 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 50 innings).
Last year Seattle pushed him to the majors after one start at AAA (one runs over five innings with no walks and five strikeouts). Over his first 11 starts with the Mariners, Gilbert went 4-2 with a 3.50 ERA, 0.982 WHIP and 62 strikeouts over 54 innings. His arm went backward over his next seven starts (8.72 ERA, .321 BAA and eight home runs over 32 innings). In September, he regained his form over 33.1 innings (2.70 ERA, 1.020 WHIP and 31 strikeouts).
His average fastball (95.5) was challenging to hit (.239 BAA). In addition, Gilbert flashed a plus slider (.219 BAA but allowed seven home runs) and a low-volume curveball (.071 BAA). Unfortunately, his changeup (.364 BAA) was an issue despite showing some strikeout ability.
Fantasy Outlook
The baseline of Gilbert’s arm projects well in his second season with Seattle. He throws strikes while offering swing-and-miss pitches. Based on his WHIP (1.173), he should have had an ERA closer to 3.60 than 4.68. Additionally, with more experience, his struggles with home runs (1.3 per nine) should diminish. I expect Gilbert to raise his inning output to a minimum of 160 innings, leading to a 3.50 ERA and 175 strikeouts. His ADP (150) in the NFBC paints him as an upside SP3. Call me interested, especially if he slides a round or so in drafts.
SP Justin Dunn
Over two seasons at AA, Dunn went 15-10 with 3.82 ERA and 263 strikeouts over 221.1 innings. The Mariners gave him 10 starts in his rookie season. He was tough to hit (.189), but home runs (10 over 45.2 innings) and command (6.1 walks per nine) led to risk in WHIP (1.358).
In 2021, Dunn walked eight batters in his first start (three runs over 4.2 innings with three strikeouts) before finding his groove over his next eight games (2.88 ERA and 42 strikeouts over 40.2 innings). After a poor showing on June 11 (five runs and 11 baserunners over three innings), Dunn left his next start with a right shoulder injury that ended his season.
Last season, his walk rate (5.2) was still a problem, but Dunn lowered that number to 4.2 over his improved success in eight games. He has been a fly-ball pitcher (49.1%) with Seattle.
His average fastball (93.8) came in better than expected. Batters struggled with his four-seam fastball (.232 BAA) while offering two elite pitches (curveball – .196 BAA and slider – 1.30 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Dunn should have time to be ready for spring training, but his shoulder injury does put a damper on his outlook. He shows the ability to get major batters out and his strikeout rate (8.1) will rise once Dunn figures out how to throw more strikes. His ADP (600) in the NFBC is well off fantasy managers’ radar in late January as they wait for an injury update. I expect WHIP risk, but Dunn has a live arm with breakout upside. He is only a player to follow in spring training while being careful not to overpay if he looks sharp.
SP George Kirby
Seattle snatched up Kirby with the 20th selection in the 2019 June Amateur Draft. He dominated over his final two years in college (18-5 with a 2.82 ERA and 203 strikeouts over 178.2 innings). His highlight stat came in 2019 when he walked only six batters over 88.1 innings.
The Mariners gave him nine appearances at Low A 2019, leading to a 2.35 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 23 innings while not walking a batter. Last year, Kirby breezed through High A and AA (5-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 80 strikeouts over 67.2 innings) while missing some time midsummer with a left shoulder issue.
Kirby works off a mid-90s fastball with a plus slider and a changeup with upside potential. He also mixed in a curveball with swing and miss value.
Fantasy Outlook
Seattle will start Kirby at AAA, but he looks ready to pitch in the majors. His next step is adding stamina to his resume. Kirby has never pitched more than 91 innings in a season. In 2021, he averaged only 4.5 innings per start. His blend of command and improving arsenal point to a front-line ace. Kirby looks like a steal based on his ADP (627) in the NFBC, but he doesn’t look draftable in 12-team and 15-team redraft leagues without an excellent spring training and an early-season starting job with the Mariners. His goal in 2022 should be to reach 130 innings.
SP Matt Brash
After pitching well over three seasons in college (12-7 with a 2.97 ERA and 215 strikeouts over 190.2 innings), the Padres selected Brash in the fourth round of the 2019 MLB June Amateur Draft. The Mariners acquired him in the summer of 2020 for SP Taylor Williams.
In his first entire season in the minors, Brash went 6-4 between High A and AA with a 2.31 ERA and 142 strikeouts over 97.1 innings. His walk rate (4.4) needs plenty of work while posting an elite strikeout rate (13.1).
Brash has a mid-90s fastball and upside changeup. However, his slider is a below-average pitch at this point in his career.
Fantasy Outlook
The Mariners should start Brash at AAA. His stuff is challenging to hit (.180 BAA in 2021), but he needs better command to hit the ground running in the majors. Seattle should give him a call at some point over the summer. Brash is a pitcher to follow early in 2022.
Bullpen
RP Ken Giles
Giles threw great for most of 2019, but he had too many stretches with no innings pitched (15, 13 and 16 days between appearances) due to a battle with right elbow soreness. Giles converted 23 of his 24 save chances with his best ERA (1.87) since 2015 (1.80). He also set a career-high in his strikeout rate (14.1), while his walk rate (2.9) came in just above his career average (2.7).
After four appearances in 2020 (9.82 ERA), Giles landed on the injured list with a right elbow injury that required surgery in October. He did not pitch at any level last season.
His average fastball (94.6) in 2020 was over two MPH lower than 2019 (97.0). When healthy, Giles offers an electric slider.
Fantasy Outlook
The closing job for the Mariners could come from multiple directions in 2022. Giles has 115 career saves with a history of throwing strikes and whiffing batters. His ADP (270) sits in the flier zone in the early draft season in the NFBC. Viable closing cheat if his spring reports are positive and Seattle drops a hint that Giles is first in line to close.
RP Diego Castillo
Over the first month of the season in 2020, Castillo worked in a setup role for the Rays, leading to a 2.53 ERA and 12 strikeouts over 10.2 innings. He pitched well with the closing job late in August (3-for-3 in save conversions) when Nick Anderson went on the injured list.
Last year Tampa awarded him their closing role over the first half of the season. Castillo converted 14 of his 16 chances with a 2.72 ERA and 49 strikeouts over 36.1 innings. After a late July trade to the Mariners, he worked more in a setup role (2.86 ERA, 26 strikeouts and two saves over 22 innings).
Castillo finished with the best command of his career (2.6 walks per nine) while also setting a new top in his strikeout rate (11.6). His closing risk came from nine home runs allowed over 58.1 innings. In addition, he offered more dominance over right-handed batters (.190 BAA with six walks and 55 strikeouts over 137 at-bats).
His average fastball (95.7) was about three MPH lower than his peak in 2018 (98.9). Batters drilled his sinker (.352 BAA), but Castillo still has an elite slider (.128 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Castillo has the tools to close games once he eliminates his disaster innings via the longball. He is getting tougher to hit with improving command. However, his ADP (404) in the NFBC puts him on the back burner for saves for the Mariners. Castillo fits the handcuff mode in this bullpen.
RP Andres Munoz
Over five seasons in the minors, Munoz went 9-6 with a 3.20 ERA and 157 strikeouts over 109.2 innings while converting 14 saves. He struggled with walks (5.4 per nine) in his minor-league career.
The Padres called him up to the majors in mid-July in 2019, which led to a great 21.1 innings to start his career (1.69 ERA and 27 strikeouts). Unfortunately, Munoz blew out his right elbow in March of 2020, leading to TJ surgery. Last year, he made five appearances between the minors and the majors (two runs, four baserunners and eight strikeouts over 41. Innings).
His average fastball (99.8) is one of the best in the game while featuring a dominating slider.
Fantasy Outlook
Munoz had the arsenal to be an elite closer once he irons out his command issues. His ADP (596) in the NFBC makes him a deep flier for saves in Seattle, but he has the highest ceiling. Munoz is a must-follow this spring. If he is throwing more strikes, I would try to get ahead of the curve by adding him to my bench.
