The NFL is back.
The 2020 season — imperiled by the global coronavirus pandemic — will start on time. A few players have opted out to avoid possible Covid-19 infection, but training camp passed with impressively low infection rates among the athletes, coaches and support staff working for NFL teams.
This season is sure to be unlike any season before it, as players had severely limited practice time over the summer and all exhibition games were canceled.
There’s a chance you missed some of the changes teams made during these unprecedented times, or have simply forgotten about them. It was a long summer, with unrest roiling throughout the country.
So we’ve gathered everything you need to know about each team in one place: Roster changes, draft picks, how they fared last year, what the numbers tell us about this year, strengths, weaknesses. It’s all here, arranged by Division (teams appear in order of expected finish).
You can click one of these links to jump to your team, or page through the whole article if you need to catch up on the entire league.
NFC
AFC
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
2019 record: 8-8 (+113 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 2nd (Pass: 5th / Run: 3rd)
Defensive DVOA: 19th (Pass: 23rd / Run: 15th)
New coaches: Mike McCarthy, Head Coach; Mike Nolan, Defensive coordinator
Added: EDGE Aldon Smith, EDGE Everson Griffen, QB Andy Dalton
Lost: CB Byron Jones, EDGE Robert Quinn, WR Randall Cobb, C Travis Frederick
Injuries: DT Gerald McCoy (season), RT La’el Collins (3 weeks, at least)
Opt-outs: CB Maurice Canady, WR Stephen Guidry and FB Jermaine Olawale
Key Rookies: WR CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma (17th); CB Trevon Diggs, Alabama (51st); DT Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma (82nd); CB Reggie Robinson, Tulsa (123rd); C Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin (146th)
Regression alert! Underperformed Pythagorean win expectation by three wins; 29th in Adjusted Games Lost.
Over-under: 9.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.8 wins
Offense
- Dak Prescott still hasn’t been signed to a long-term deal and will play the season on the franchise tag, but he’s poised for maybe the best season of his career with a deep supporting cast, including returners Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup.
- Randall Cobb left for Houston but was immediately replaced with first-round pick CeeDee Lamb, who should be able to replace Cobb’s production while adding more big-play ability to the Cowboys offense.
- The offensive line has long been a strength in Dallas but there is some uncertainty with Joe Looney replacing Travis Frederick at center and La’el Collins starting the year on short-term IR, leaving journeyman Cam Erving manning the right tackle spot for the first month.
Defense
- The pass rush from the defensive line will be the key to the for a defense lacking proven talent in the secondary.
- Good news: There’s a lot of talent in the pass rush with Everson Griffen signing in Dallas late and the NFL re-instating Randy Gregory. Aldon Smith is also back in the NFL and should get plenty of pass rush opportunities. DeMarcus Lawrence is the star of the group.
- On the inside, the Cowboys were hoping for some production out of free agent Gerald McCoy, but he’s already out for the season. Now they’ll lean on young guys Tyrstan Hill and Neville Gallimore for interior pressure. Dontari Poe is also here after a down season in Carolina.
- Mike Nolan could bring a more blitz-heavy scheme, which would help generate pressure if some of the less reliable pass rushers aren’t productive.
- Chidobe Awuzie and Anthony Brown are the presumed starters at cornerback but rookies Trevon Diggs and Reggie Robinson could push Brown for the snaps. Xavier Woods and Darian Thompson are an underwhelming pair of safeties but, hey, Earl Thomas is still out there.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Cornerback
Biggest strength: Offensive firepower
Player who needs to make the leap: Chidobe Awuzie
Floor/ceiling: 8-13 wins
Win total over-under: Over 9.5 wins
Philadelphia Eagles
2019 record: 9-7 (+31 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 17th / Run: 13th)
Defensive DVOA: 12th (Pass: 16th / Run: 4th)
New coaches: Press Taylor, Pass-game coordinator; Jeff Stoutland, run-game coordinator; Rich Scangarello, senior offensive assistant
Added: CB Darius Slay, DT Javon Hargrave, CB Nickell Robey-Coleman
Lost: S Malcolm Jenkins, WR Nelson Agholor, CB Ronald Darby, RB Jordan Howard
Injuries: OG Brandon Brooks (season); OT Andre Dillard (season)
Opt-outs: WR Marquise Goodwin
Key Rookies: WR Jalen Reagor, TCU (21st); QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (53rd); LB Davion Taylor, Colorado (103rd); S K’Von Wallace, Clemson (127th); OT Jack Driscoll, Auburn (145th); WR John Hightower, Boise State (168th)
Regression alert! 27th in fumble recovery percentage; 3rd in Adjusted Games Lost on defense
Over-under: 9.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.5 wins
Offense
- Carson Wentz should have more weapons to work with compared to last year when he was throwing to insurance salesmen. But, Marquise Goodwin opting out puts pressure on Desean Jackson to stay healthy or Jalen Reagor to hit the ground running for the team to have the downfield speed it lacked last season. John Hightower did turn some heads in camp and could add some downfield play-making. Miles Sanders and Boston Scott are contributors in the passing game, as well.
- The receiver group has to be better in 2020, but the same can be said of the tight ends. Not that Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert were bad last season, but they are the center of the passing game and that’s not changing any time soon.
- Offensive line continuity is the big concern after the Brandon Brooks injury. Now there are questions at right guard spots and left tackle. Jason Peters was brought into play guard, but after Andre Dillard’s season-ending injury, he’s sliding back to left tackle. Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson are really the only sure things of a group the Eagles offense will lean heavily on.
Defense
- Philly will have more depth on the defensive line after getting hit hard with injuries the last two seasons. Malik Jackson returns after missing most of the season and he’ll be joined on the interior by free agent Javon Hargrave, who actually outperformed Fletcher Cox in some key metric last season. Brandon Graham remains the team’s most reliable edge rusher at 32.
- There are a lot of unproven players at linebacker but there is speed and athleticism with Duke Riley, and rookies Davion Taylor and Shaun Bradley, joining the group. But the rookies probably won’t play early on, It’s an unsettled group and it wouldn’t be surprising if there’s a lot of turnover on the depth chart throughout the season.
- The secondary is much improved after the trade for Darius Slay, who gives the Eagles a legit No. 1 corner. Avonte Maddox is the starter across from Slay after Rasul Douglas and Sidney Jones were cut. Newcomer Nickell Robey-Coleman gives them a solid option in the slot.
- Losing defensive leader Malcolm Jenkins will hurt both in the locker room and on the field. He’ll be replaced by converted corner Jalen Mills.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Offensive depth
Biggest strength: Defensive line
Player who needs to make the leap: Derek Barnett
Floor/ceiling: 6-12 wins
Win total over-under: Over 9.5 wins
New York Giants
2019 record: 4-12 (-110 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 26th / Run: 18th)
Defensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 31st / Run: 7th)
New coaches: Joe Judge, head coach; Jason Garrett, offensive coordinator; Patrick Graham, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB James Bradberry, LB Blake Martinez, RB Dion Lewis
Lost: S Antoine Bethea, LB Alec Ogletree, OT Mike Remmers,
Opt-outs: LT Nate Solder (opt-out), CB Sam Beal (opt-out)
Key Rookies: T Andrew Thomas, Georgia (4th); S Xavier McKinney, Alabama (36th); T Matt Peart, Connecticut (99th)
Regression alert! T32nd in turnover margin
Over/under: 6.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7 wins
Offense
- Daniel Jones is coming off a surprisingly competent rookie campaign, which was marred by a fumbling issue. Jones was better on quick passing plays than he was on longer ones, which matters because new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is known for a vertical passing scheme. It may not be the best fit.
- Outside of the guard positions, the offensive line is shaky. LT Nate Solder opted out and wasn’t last year very good anyway. Andrew Thomas is a raw rookie who will have to start in his place, leaving Cam Fleming to take over on the right.
- Darius Slayton needs to build on his rookie season for this receiving corps to come together. Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate have overlapping skill sets and neither profile as a true WR1. Slayton does. The receivers will get help if talented tight end Evan Engram can stay on the field. Dion Lewis joins Saquon Barkley in the backfield. It’s on Garrett to maximize those versatile backs, which is concerning.
Defense
- The defensive line is still a bunch of run stuffers … plus Markus Golden, whom the team was willing to let go at the start of the offseason before he returned in the summer. Last year’s first-round pick Dexter Lawrence needs to step up if the line is going to be productive against the pass. Dave Gettleman has said that he expects the new defensive coaching staff to scheme up pressure.
- Linebacker has been a problem for over a decade now and nothing changed in the offseason. Free-agent signing Blake Martinez was well compensated but he’s hardly an upgrade over Alec Ogletree.
- The secondary could be a strength depending on the development of younger guys. James Bradberry is high-end CB2 who’s miscast as a No. 1, but he’s better than what NY had. Rookie Xavier McKinney is an undersized but a do-it-all safety who could fill in a lot of gaps. Jabrill Peppers hasn’t lived up to the pre-draft hype but he’s been solid. Julian Love impressed in limited snaps late last season.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Linebackers
Biggest strength: Run defense
Player who needs to make the leap: Darius Slayton
Floor/ceiling: 4-9 wins
Win total over-under: Under 6.5 wins
Washington Football Team
2019 record: 3-13 (-169 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 30th (Pass: 29th / Run: 25th)
Defensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 24th / Run: 24th)
New coaches: Ron Rivera, head coach; Scott Turner, Offensive coordinator; Jack Del Rio, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB Kendall Fuller, LB Thomas Davis Sr., OG Wes Schweitzer
Lost: RB Adrian Peterson, OG Ereck Flowers, CB Josh Norman, CB Quinton Dunbar, RB Derrius Guice
Injuries: LB Reuben Foster (season)
Opt-outs: DT Caleb Brantley and LB Josh Harvey-Clemons
Key Rookies: EDGE Chase Young, Ohio State (2nd); RB Antonio Gibson, Memphis (66th); OT Saahdiq Charles, LSU (108th); WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty (142nd)
Regression alert! 2nd in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 6 wins
Offense
- QB Dwayne Haskins had a rough rookie season statistically, but some advanced metrics suggest that it was the result of a poor supporting cast. He had the biggest gap between Total Points per attempt — Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary stat that takes EPA and adjusts it based on a player’s individual contribution to a play — and EPA per attempt in the league. The inflated sack numbers, though, were on him. He held the ball too long, and his sack rate was double that of Case Keenum, who played behind the same line.
- Antonio Gibson hasn’t been named the starter after Adrian Peterson’s release but he’s the most interesting player in the group. He was a receiver/running back hybrid at Memphis, so Scott Turner’s experience with Christian McCaffrey in Carolina should help him know how to get the most out of the rookie.
- Receiver is the biggest concern for the team going forward: Terry McCalurin was PFF’s highest-graded rookie receiver, but there isn’t much behind him after Kelvin Harmon tore his ACL. Steven Sims is an interesting player in the slot but not a game-changer. Rookie Antonio Gandy-Gauldin is a big prospect out of Liberty but probably won’t be ready to contribute this year. The tight end cupboard is bare, too, with Jeremy Sprinkle at the top of the depth chart.
- The line is fine but there’s a big hole at left tackle after trading away Trent Williams and not bringing back Donald Penn. Rookie Saahdiq Charles was in the mix but a camp injury set him back. It looks like Cornelius Lucas, a decent pass protector, will take over for Williams. Wes Schweitzer was brought in to replace a resurgent Ereck Flowers. Morgan Moses and Branden Scherff form one of the best right sides in the league.
Defense
- Washington has a deep defensive line after drafting Chase Young. Montez Sweat, last year’s first-round pick, reportedly looked good in camp. While Ryan Kerrigan is clearly in decline he’s still useful. Jonathan Allen and Deron Payne are formidable in the middle and Matt Iodanis has been one of the team’s more consistent pass rushers.
- The linebacker group is full of question marks. Thomas Davis is the most notable name but looked washed in Los Angeles last season. Kevin Pierre-Louis comes over from Chicago where he played well when given snaps but wasn’t given a lot of them. Reuben Foster would have been a good starter but he was placed on IR at the end of camp.
- Secondary play will largely depend on the pressure the front is able to produce. Kendall Fuller and Ronald Darby will likely start. Fabian Moreau is an option as well. Landon Collins and Troy Apke, an athletic prospect who has impressed in camp, look like the starters at safety.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Secondary
Biggest strength: Defensive line
Player who needs to make the leap: Montez Sweat
Floor/ceiling: 3-7 wins
Win total over-under: Over 5 wins
Jump to a different division:
NFC
AFC
AFC East
New England Patriots
2019 record: 12-4 (+195 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 11th (Pass: 14th / Run: 15th)
Defensive DVOA: 1st (Pass: 1st / Run: 6th)
New coaches: Lost OL coach Dante Scarnecchia
Added: QB Cam Newton, DT Beau Allen, WR Damiere Byrd
Lost: QB Tom Brady, EDGE Kyle Van Noy, LB Jamie Collins Sr., DT Danny Shelton, C Ted Karras, S Duron Harmon
Opt-outs: LB Dont’a Hightower, CB Patrick Chung, OT Marcus Cannon, WR Marqise Lee, RB Brandon Bolden, TE Matt LaCosse, FB Dan Vitale
Key Rookies: S Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne (37th); EDGE Josh Uche, Michigan (60th); EDGE Anfernee Jennings, Alabama (87th); TE Devin Asiasi, UCLA (91st); TE Dalton Keene, Virginia Tech (101st)
Regression alert! 1st in turnover margin; 2nd in fumble recovery percentage
Over-under: 9.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.5 wins
Offense
- They solved the QB issue by signing Cam Newton, but they’re still short on pass catchers behind Julian Edelman. They need some young guys — N’Keal Harry or Jakobi Myers, in particular — to step up. Mohamed Sanu was seen as a potential bounce-back candidate but got bounced off the roster instead. Rookie TE Devin Asiasi was a stand out in camp, and we know Cam likes his tight ends.
- Personnel is not really the issue of the offensive line –though the Marcus Cannon opt-out hurts — because Dante Scarrnecia is gone. The long-time offensive line coach was considered to be one of the best in league history. The tackle spot is a concern. The hope is Isaiah Wynn is ready to start playing like a first-round pick after missing his rookie season and going through some inconsistency in Year 2. He did earn a 75 pass-blocking grade from PFF, so there’s reason to be optimistic.
Defense
- The defense was already due for some turnover regression and was going to have a hard time replacing Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy, but then the opt-outs hit. Now there’s almost no way this unit doesn’t regress. Football Outsiders actually has them regressing to the 26th ranked defense.
- Young players like Chase Winovich, Josh Uche and Ju’Whaun Bentley need to fill the void left behind by departures/opt-outs.
- Mosty of the losses were to the front seven. The secondary is still as deep as ever with rookie Kyle Dugger stepping in for Patrick Chung, who opted out. The cornerback group is deep with Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson at the top of the depth chart.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? down
Biggest weakness: Skill players
Biggest strength: Coaching staff
Player who needs to make the leap: N’Keal Harry
Floor/ceiling: 9-12 wins
Win total over-under: Over 9.5 wins
Buffalo Bills
2019 record: 10-6 (+55 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 21st (Pass: 20th / Run: 19th)
Defensive DVOA: 6th (Pass: 5th / Run: 18th)
Added: WR Stefon Diggs, EDGE Mario Addison, DT Vernon Butler, DT Quinton Jefferson, CB Josh Norman
Lost: EDGE Shaq Lawson, EDGE Lorenzo Alexander, CB Kevin Johnson, DT Jordan Phillips
Injuries: OG John Feliciano (IR, at least until Week 4)
Opt-outs: DT Star Lotulelei and CB E.J. Gaines
Key Rookies: EDGE AJ Epenesa, Iowa (54th); RB Zack Moss, Utah (86th); WR Gabriel Davis, UCF (128th)
Regression alert! Outperformed win expectation by 2 games based on DVOA
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.9 wins
Offense
- Some reason to be optimistic about Josh Allen: The Bills ranked 10th in passing DVOA over the second half of the season. The problem: That was almost entirely based on unsustainable turnover luck. Allen benefitted from being among the league leaders in having potential interceptions dropped and because the Bills recovered a high percentage of his fumbles.
- Buffalo is hoping the Stefon Diggs acquisition will help Allen improve but Diggs dominates down the field and hitting on deep throws has been Allen’s biggest issue so far during his career.
- The front office rebuilt the offensive line last year and those five guys return: Dion Dawkins (who just signed a 4-year extension) at left tackle, Quinton Spain at left guard, Mitch Morse in the middle and John Feliciano and Cody Ford manning the right side.
Defense
- The Defense is expected to be good once again, but replacing Lorenzo Alexander, who was an early-down linebacker and passing down pass rusher, will be difficult. Two former Panthers — AJ Klein and Mario Addison — will replace him by committee. Sean McDermott has earned the benefit of doubt he’ll be able to make it all work with a new-look front seven.
- Tack end of the defense remains intact with top 5 players in terms of snaps played return: Tre White, Levi Wallace, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Taron Johnson. Plus the team added Josh Norman.
- Something that will help the Bills pass defense avoid regression: They have one of the easiest slate of opposing QBs in 2020, per The Athletic’s Tier rankings.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Josh Allen
Biggest strength: Secondary
Player who needs to make the leap: Dawson Knox
Floor/ceiling: 7-12 wins
Win total over-under: Over 8.5 wins
New York Jets
2019 record: 7-9 (-83 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 31st (Pass: 32nd / Run: 31st)
Defensive DVOA: 10th (Pass: 18th / Run: 2nd)
Added: OT George Fant, C Connor McGovern, CB Quincy Wilson, QB Joe Flacco
Lost: WR Robby Anderson, C Ryan Kalil, OT Brandon Shell, OT Kelvin Beachum, CB Trumaine Johnson
Opt-outs: LB C.J. Mosely, WR Josh Doctson and OL Leo Koloamatangi
Key Rookies: T Mekhi Becton, Louisville (11th); WR Denzel Mims, Baylor (59th); S Ashtyn Davis, California (68th); EDGE Jabari Zuniga, Florida (79th); CB Bryce Hall, Virginia (158th)
Regression alert! 1st in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 6.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.4 wins
Offense
- Sam Darnold sturggled, in part, because he didn’t have a lot of weapons to work with. Well, the receiver corps is not any better on paper in 2020, though the ceiling is higher with second-round pick Denzel Mims (who missed camp with a hamstring injury) and Breshad Perriman joining Jamison Crowder. Tight end Chris Herndon is being hyped for a second straight offseason after missing all but one game in 2019. He did have a good camp.
- The offensive line is the big question mark, but the front office did take the Buffalo approach this offseason, signing mid-level free agents and using draft picks to try to build it up. Noah Fant, Mekhi Becton and Connor McGovern are the big additions to one of the worst lines in the league last season.
- Darnold could help out by being more controlled in the pocket and getting rid of the ball quicker. Only two QBs had a higher average time to throw than Darnold last year.
Defense
- The defense is in good hands with Gregg Williams running things, as crazy as that sounds. They were a top defense last year and that was with bad turnover luck.
- Jamal Adams was a good player but it’s not a huge loss for the team, which got Bradley McDougald back in the trade and drafted Ashtyn Davis to go along with Marcus Maye. In camp, Maye was in the Adams role with McDougald playing deep and Davis spelling McDougald occasionally.
- Cornerback is the problem area with Pierre Desir and Young Guy Who Wins the Job in Camp starting.
- It looks like Neville Hewitt and Blake Cashman will start at linebacker with C.J. Mosley opting out and Avery Williamson still on the PUP list. Cashman is the more promising of the two. He put up elite athletic numbers at the combine and drew some praise from Adam Gase during camp.
- Still no clear threats on the edge. They drafted Jabari Zuniga, who is an athlete more than a football player but could be given good opportunities thanks to Williams’ blitzes. They’ll rely on scheme to get pressure.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Adam Gase
Biggest strength: Gregg Williams
Player who needs to make the leap: Quinnen Williams
Floor/ceiling: 5-9 wins
Win total over-under: Over 6.5 wins
Miami Dolphins
2019 record: 5-11 (-188 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 27th (Pass: 25th / Run: 32nd)
Defensive DVOA: 32nd (Pass: 32nd / Run: 27th)
New coaches: Chan Gailey, Offensive coordinator; Josh Boyer, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB Byron Jones, EDGE Kyle Van Noy, EDGE Shaq Lawson, G Ereck Flowers, EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah, RB Jordan Howard, C Ted Karras, RB Matt Breida
Lost: No key losses
Injuries: OLB Vince Biegel (season)
Opt-outs: WR Albert Wilson and WR Allen Hurns
Key Rookies: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (5th); T Austin Jackson, USC (18th); CB Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn (30th); OG Robert Hunt, Louisiana (39th); DT Raekwon Davis, Alabama (56th); S Brandon Jones, Texas (70th); DT Solomon Kindley, Georgia (111th)
Regression alert! 3-1 in coin-flip games; 5th in Adjusted Games Lost; 27th in turnover margin
Over-under: 6 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 6.4 wins
Offense
- If not for a weird offseason, it would be concerning that Tua Tagovailoa did not win the starting job out of camp. But given the injury, the abbreviated offseason and him not getting live reps in preseason, I wouldn’t read into it.
- The Dolphins had arguably the worst offensive line in the league last season, both in the run game and pass game, but they added a lot of (slight) upgrades, signing Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras in free agency before drafting Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt and Solomon Kindley. Julie’n Davenport and Ja’Marcus Webb were the worst tackle pair in the league and 2019 third-round pick Michael Deiter wasn’t much better. They’re all back but none are long-term solutions.
- The receiving corps took a hit with Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opting out, but there’s still plenty of young talent to get excited about here. Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Jakeem Grant could form a decent trio. And Mike Gesicki is just cosplaying as a tight end.
Defense
- Brian Flores is building his defense in the Patriots’ image. They’re loaded at corner after signing Byron Jones and drafting Noah Igbinoghene (Igbee-Nog-Buh-Nee) to go along with Xavien Howard and Nik Needham. Former Pats corner Eric Rowe is switching to SS.
- After Vince Beigel tore his Achilles in camp, it’s really Kyle Van Noy left on the edge. The Dolphins do have big defensive linemen capable of occupying blockers. Even if there have no bona fide pass rushers, they have the players to scheme up some pressure.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Offensive line
Biggest strength: Cornerback depth
Player who needs to make the leap: Christian Wilkins
Win total over-under: Under 6 wins
Jump to a different division:
NFC
AFC
NFC North
Green Bay Packers
2019 record: 13-3 (+63 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 8th (Pass: 11th / Run: 4th)
Defensive DVOA: 15th (Pass: 9th / Run: 23rd)
Added: LB Christian Kirksey, OT Ricky Wagner
Lost: LB Blake Martinez, OT Bryan Bulaga, CB Tramon Williams, WR Geronimo Allison, TE Jimmy Graham
Opt-outs: WR Devin Funchess
Key Rookies: QB Jordan Love, Utah State (26th); RB AJ Dillon, Boston College (62nd); TE Josiah Deguara, Cincinnati (94th)
Regression alert! +3 pythagorean wins; 4th in turnover margin; The second-worst DVOA of any 13-3 team. The 1999 Colts were the worst of the DVOA era.
Over-under: 9 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.8 wins
Offense
- The front office seemed to be content with the offense it had in place, adding Devin Funchess and Ricky Wagner in free agency, only for Funchess to opt-out. And Wagner isn’t a clear upgrade over his predecessors, Brian Bulaga. In the draft, the Packers’ first three picks were on the offensive side of the ball, but they picked three players who won’t start in 2020: Jordan Love, A.J. Dillon and Josiah Deguara.
- Aaron Rodgers hasn’t produced at a top-10 level in four years. He’s still making plays but not at the same rate and he’s taking too many sacks and not taking enough chances. His interception rate is the lowest in the league, but at what cost? Even without the interceptions, his advanced numbers are around league average. He needs to be a little more like Brett Favre.
- Especially with this receiving corps of Devante Adams and a bunch of guys. Allen Lazard might be the most promising based on numbers alone, but it seems like the coaching staff is intent on making Marquez Valdez-Scantling a thing.
- The offensive line is the strength of the team, with David Bakhtiri, Elgton Jenkins and Corey Linsley making up maybe the best left side of a line in the league. The right side isn’t so hot. Billy Turner is a sieve at right guard and Wagner is coming off a down year
Defense
- The defense is largely the same. And it was good against the pass last year but some regression is coming based on how dependent on interceptions and sacks this defense was. With Za’Darius Smith, who led the league in pressures, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark all back, the sacks should still be there, though.
- Jaire Alexander is one of the league’s brightest young stars at corner, and the safety pair of Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage is a good one. If Kevin King or Josh Jackson can emerge and take the CB2 job, this could be one of the best secondaries in the league. That’s a big “if,” though.
- The big schematic question is how much dime Mike Pettine will play after leaning heavily on it in 2019 before the tactic was exploited by the 49ers in the NFC title game.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Wide receiver
Biggest strength: Edge rushers
Player who needs to make the leap: Allen Lazard
Floor/ceiling: 7-11 wins
Win total over-under: Under 9 wins
Minnesota Vikings
2019 record: 10-6 (+104 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 10th (Pass: 10th / Run: 16th)
Defensive DVOA: 7th (Pass: 7th / Run: 8th)
New coaches: Gary Kubiak, Offensive coordinator; Adam Zimmer and Andre Patterson, co-DCs
Added: EDGE Yannick Ngakoue
Lost: WR Stefon Diggs, CB Trae Waynes, EDGE Everson Griffen, CB Mackensie Alexander, DT Linval Joseph, CB Xavier Rhodes, EDGE Yannick Ngakoue
Opt-outs: DT Michael Pierce
Key Rookies: WR Justin Jefferson, LSU (22nd); CB Jeff Gladney, TCU (31st); OT Ezra Cleveland, Boise State (58th); CB Cameron Dantzler, Mississippi State (89th); EDGE D.J. Wonnum, South Carolina (117th); EDGE James Lynch, Baylor (130th)
Regression alert! 32 in Adjusted Games Lost; 5th in TO magin
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.6 wins
Offense
- Kirk Cousins was very good in 2019, but will have to be even better in 2020 if Minnesota is going to compete for a playoff spot. The success of the offense will largely be based on the performance of Cousins on play-action passes. That was the heart of the offense last year but play-action performance is volatile year-to-year and Stefon Diggs is no longer around to haul in those deep shots.
- Mike Zimmer is still a little too insistent on establishing the run, which could limit the offense’s ceiling further. The Vikings were one of the least efficient teams on first down when running the ball. But Gary Kubiak has, in general, called fewer runs on early downs than the average NFL team, so there’s some hope.
- The offense managed to be successful in spite of the offensive line, which is good in the run game but doesn’t hold up well in pass protection. That’s certainly the case with last year’s first-round pick Garrett Bradbury. The entire line outside of the right tackle spot is shaky. Brian O’Neil is a rock on the right side, but Riley Reiff is declining at left tackle. Left guard is an open competition with not a lot of good options outside of rookie Ezra Cleveland, who played tackle at Boise State. Pat Elflein is moving over to right guard after fizzling out at left guard and center. He showed promise as a rookie but hasn’t bounced back from injuries and remains a liability in pass pro.
- The job of replacing Diggs will fall on rookie Justin Jefferson, who is a similar player in terms of how and where on the field he wins. Irv Smith making the second-year leap could help replace Diggs’ production. With Kyle Rudolph and Adam Theilen still around, the Vikings aren’t hurting for weapons. Plus Dalvin Cook is productive as a receiver out of the backfield.
Defense
- While they were able to replace the corners they lost with young guys, Minnesota was struggling to find a replacement for Griffen … then the Yannick Ngakoue trade happened and the pieces all fell into place. Ngakoue joins stud Danielle Hunter and the promising Ifeadi Odenigbo to form a solid group of edge rushers.
- Linebacker remains the strength of the defense with Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr leading that group and providing useful pass defense in their own ways.
- Cameron Dantzler was a standout in camp. If Mike Hughes is healthy and Jeff Gladney lives up to his draft hype, the Vikings secondary should be fine. Especially with Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris back at safety.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Offensive line
Biggest strength: Safeties
Player who needs to make the leap: Irv Smith
Floor/ceiling: 6-11 wins
Win total over-under: Under 8.5 wins
Detroit Lions
2019 record: 3-12-1 (-82 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 18th (Pass: 15th / Run: 27th)
Defensive DVOA: 28th (Pass: 29th / Run: 17th)
New coaches: Cory Undlin, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB Desmond Trufant, LB Jamie Collins Sr., DT Danny Shelton, OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, S Duron Harmon
Lost: CB Darius Slay, G Graham Glasgow, DT Damon Harrison, EDGE Devon Kennard
Opt-outs: WR Geronimo Allison and DL John Atkins
Key Rookies: CB Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State (3rd); RB D’Andre Swift, Georgia (35th); EDGE Julian Okwara, Notre Dame (67th); G Jonah Jackson, Ohio State (75th); G Logan Stenberg, Kentucky (121st)
Regression alert! 1-5-1 in “coin flip” games; -3 pythagorean wins;
Over-under: 6.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8 wins
Offense
- A lot of the Lions hype is based on how good Matthew Stafford was in a small sample size during his first season under new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Stafford got back to chucking the ball downfield and there weren’t as many mistakes as there had been before Jim Bob Cooter’s offense reigned him in. It will be interesting to see which version of Stafford we get for a full 16 game season.
- Stafford will have a deep and balanced group of receivers to work with. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones can both win all over the field. Danny Amendola is still chugging along as a possession receiver in the slot. Marvin Hall provided some speed and big-play potential in a reserve role. Quintez Cephus is a big-bodied rookie who could give Stafford another threat in the red zone. Detroit is hoping for a break out for T.J. Hockenson in Year 2.
- There are no clear answers on the line outside of Frank Ragnow at center. LT Taylor Decker signed and extension recently but has been serviceable at best. LG Joe Dahl is entering Year 2 as a starter and wasn’t good in pass pro in Year 1. The same could be said for big free-agent acquisition Halapoulivaaati Vaitai, who will play right tackle.
Defense
- The Lions are going to be relying on Matt Patricia to scheme up pressure once again. It didn’t go so well in 2019, when Detroit had the worst pass rush in the league. It’s Trey Flowers, rookie Julian Okwara and … not much else.
- Jamie Collins wasn’t a good player last time he left New England but at least he’s in the same system now. He could also help out as a blitzer. Jarrad Davis will likely start but he’s been bad since being taken in the first round of the draft. During the offseason, Davis said he had to get better in coverage and against the run, so pretty much “playing linebacker.”
- The secondary looks strong after the team used the third pick on Jeff Okudah, who replaces Darius Slay. They also took a flier on Desmond Trufant. If he’s serviceable, the Lions have a good group with Justin Coleman manning the slot. Tracy Walker and Duron Harmon aren’t household names but both are reliable safeties, and Harmon obviously knows the system.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Pass rush
Biggest strength: Secondary
Player who needs to make the leap: TJ Hockenson
Floor/ceiling: 5-10 wins
Win total over-under: Over 6.5 wins
Chicago Bears
2019 record: 8-8 (-18 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 25th (Pass: 19th / Run: 29th)
Defensive DVOA: 8th (Pass: 8th / Run: 13th)
New coaches: Bill Lazor, Offensive coordinator
Added: QB Nick Foles, EDGE Robert Quinn, TE Jimmy Graham, CB Artie Burns, OL Germain Ifedi
Lost: CB Prince Amukamara, WR Taylor Gabriel, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, EDGE Leonard Floyd, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, OG Kyle Long
Opt-outs: DT Eddie Goldman
Key Rookies: TE Cole Kmet, Notre Dame (43rd); CB Jaylon Johnson, Utah (50th)
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.8 wins
Offense
- Almost all of the positivity from Mitch Trubisky’s 2018 season — which is really why the team still has some belief in him — was based on his play under pressure (unsustainable) and his scrambling (ditto). When he wasn’t able to maintain his performance in those facets, we saw the drop off in 2019. Even returning to his 2018 is a big ask.
- The offensive line is mostly the same. Germain Ifedi was brought in to replace the retiring Kyle Long. Ifedi is a better run blocker than pass protector, which is what Chicago needs after a dismal performance in the run game by the offensive line in 2019. Things will be better if LT Charles Leno rebounds after a down season. RT Bobby Massie has been solid throughout his career. Cody Whitehair is a good run blocker at center and James Daniels is solid-to-mediocre at left guard.
- The receiving corps is led by the under-appreciated Allen Robinson, who has managed to earn the reputation as a true No. 1 WR despite terrible QB play throughout his career. Anthony Miller needs to break out in Year 3 after getting hype coming out of the draft. There are some intriguing options for the third spot with Riley Ridley and Ted Ginn in the mix.
- The Bears have a million tight ends on their roster and none of them are terribly exciting. Jimmy Graham got $16 million over two years for some reason. Cole Kmet has a chance to become a good player but Chicago will probably waste him. Demetrius Harris is returning to a familiar system but won’t have Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball in this one.
Defense
- The defense will still be very good and could be even better than it was a year ago with Robert Quinn joining Khalil Mack. Losing Eddie Goldman hurts but only on early downs. Akiem Hick played only 5 games last year, so getting him back healthy will provide a huge boost.
- The linebacker corps got a little worse with Nick Kwiatkowski leaving for Las Vegas, which puts more pressure on Danny Trevathan to stay healthy and play well. It’s time for Roquan Smith to establish himself as a Pro Bowl-level linebacker. Trevathan and Smith were good against the run in 2019. They need to be better in coverage for this unit to return to elite status.
- The pass defense will be better if Kyle Fuller bounces back after a bad year in coverage. His track record suggests that’s likely. Rookie Jaylon Johnson could start across from him. He’s a physical corner who showed off man coverage skills at Utah. Buster Skrine is a non-liability in the slot but was a clear downgrade from Bryce Callahan.
- Eddie Jackson is the highest-paid safety in the league for a reason. He’s a deep safety who does more than just man the deep middle. He actually makes plays from that spot which is hard to do. The second safety spot is up for grabs with veterans Deon Bush and Tashaun Gipson vying for the job.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Quarterback
Biggest strength: Pass rush
Player who needs to make the leap: Anthony Miller
Floor/ceiling: 6-10 wins
Win total over-under: Under 8.5 wins
Jump to a different division:
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Baltimore Ravens
2019 record: 14-2 (+249 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 1st (Pass: 1st / Run: 1st)
Defensive DVOA: 4th (Pass: 4th / Run: 20th)
Added: DE Calais Campbell, DE Derek Wolfe
Lost: DT Michael Pierce, TE Hayden Hurst, CB Brandon Carr, FS Earl Thomas
Opt-outs: OT Andre Smith and WR De’Anthony Thomas
Key Rookies: LB Patrick Queen, LSU (28th); RB JK Dobbins, Ohio State (55th); DT Justin Madubuike, Texas A&M (71st); WR Devin Duvernay, Texas (92nd); LB Malik Harrison, Ohio State (98th); OG Ben Bredeson, Michigan (143rd)
Regression alert! 3-0 in coin flip games; 6th in turnover margin; 3rd in fumble recovery percentage
Over-under: 11.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 10 wins
Offense
- There were some questions about Lamar Jackson’s passing ability after the playoff loss, but his stats show that he’s one of the top passers in the league. He led the league in QBR and was in the top-5 in nearly every major statistical category, even those that don’t factor in his scrambling. Jackson improved his completion percentage by 8 points. And did it with his best WR being a hobbled rookie (Hollywood Brown).
- The Ravens played 3 TEs on nearly half of their snaps. That will likely change with Hayden Hurst traded to Atlanta. They’ll need sophomore Miles Boykin to take the next step with more reps — gained 198 yards on 22 targets — or one of the rookies Devin Duvernay (Texas, third round) and James Proche (SMU, sixth round) to hit the ground running for this offense to reach its ceiling in 2020. Outside of the young guys, it’s just Willie Snead, who has transitioned from deep threat to possession outlet for Lamar. Even without a strong WR corps last year, the Ravens were still the NFL’s best team when using 11 personnel. There were, by far, the NFL’s best team when in empty. Lamar makes everything better.
- One big change on the offensive line: Baltimore is replacing Marshall Yanda with D.J. Fluker, who has somehow cut his body fat in half from 44% to 22%. He’s never been more than a mediocre blocker, but with Lamar behind center, the Ravens offense should be able to navigate the loss.
- Mark Ingram is a year older but the team drafted JK Dobbins in the second and Justice Hill looked good in flashes as a rookie.
Defense
- The run defense is what needed the biggest overhaul, and it came in the form of Calais Campbell. They also signed Derek Wolfe, who has consistently graded out well against the run. Patrick Queen was brought in to add more athleticism to the front seven. Wink Martindale will scheme up pressure as he did last year and the numbers suggest the Ravens benefit from some regression after leading the league in QB hits but finishing only 15th in sack rate.
- One of the league’s best secondaries had remained intact up until last weekend when Earl Thomas was released. There’s the addition-by-subtraction thing at play here, but Thomas is still an elite safety who allowed some of the off-the-wall Martindale did last year. This will be a big loss for the defense.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Interior offensive line
Biggest strength: Lamar Jackson’s presence
Player who needs to make the leap: Hollywood Brown
Floor/ceiling: 10-14 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Pittsburgh Steelers
2019 record: 8-8 (-14 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 32nd (Pass: 30th / Run: 30th)
Defensive DVOA: 3rd (Pass: 3rd / Run: 3rd)
Added: FB Derek Watt, OG Stefen Wisniewski, TE Eric Ebron, DT Chris Wormley
Lost: DT Javon Hargrave, CB Artie Burns, LB Mark Barron
Key Rookies: WR Chase Claypool, Notre Dame (49th); EDGE Alex Highsmith, Charlotte (102nd); RB Anthony McFarland Jr., Maryland (124th)
Regression alert! 7th in turnover margin
Over-under: 9 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 9 wins
Offense
- Ben Roethlisberger’s return from injury is the big question obviously. GM Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin are confident he’ll return to form, but history suggests it’s a long shot. Vinny Testaverde is the lone QB in NFL history beyond age 35 to attempt fewer than 100 attempts and then re-enter the next season as a starter. He led the league in INTs and the Cowboys went 5-10 with him as a starter. But the question isn’t just: Can Ben play at a high level again? It’s can Ben play at a high level again AND stay healthy? The answer is most likely no.
- Anything from Ben will be an upgrade over what Pittsburgh got out of Rudolph and Hodges, though. Pittsburgh threw for 200 yards as a team just three times from Week 2 on according to Football Outsiders. Two of those came against the Bengals and Dolphins’ league-worst defenses.
- The quarterback issues affected everyone else on the offense. The Steelers saw the 4th-most loaded boxes in the league. The receivers had to deal with bad service plus QBs who were incapable of getting beyond their first read. Expect some bounce-back years for James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
- Pittsburgh added some speed to the RB group by drafting Anthony McFarland in the fourth round. Ran a 4.44 40-yard dash. Was a big play threat at Maryland.
- The receiving corps is promising on paper after the team drafted Chase Claypool to add to JuJu, James Washington and Diontae Johnson. Johnson is the best bet to emerge behind Smith-Schuster. Washington hasn’t been good through two years (though he started to show some flashes last year) and Claypool’s tape at Notre Dame was underwhelming.
Defense
- The Steelers led the NFL in sack rate for a third-straight season. T.J. Watt is the star but Bud Dupree was very good last year as well. The interior is a little thinner with Javon Hargrave in Philly, but Cam Heyward is one of the league’s best interior rushers, so they should be fine in terms of pass rush. Hargrave’s presence will be missed in the run game but the Steelers are hoping the return of Stefon Tuitt will make up for it.
- Devin Bush looks like a star linebacker in the making. Missed some tackles and was only OK against the run but his coverage was as advertised. Vince Williams should be the other linebacker but there are questions about his coverage ability.
- Terrell Edmunds is on track to become the next Marc Barron or Deone Bucannon, which is not a good thing. He just doesn’t do well enough in coverage to consider him more than a box safety.
- The Steven Nelson signing worked out last year. He leads a solid cornerback group that will probably need to be upgraded a year from now because Joe Haden is 31 with a history of injuries. Mike Hilton is in the last year of his deal.
- Minkah Fitzpatrick is obviously the star. He’s not going to create as many turnovers as he did in his debut season in Pittsburgh, but he doesn’t need to to be considered one of the best safeties in the league.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Roethlisberger’s health
Biggest strength: Pass rush
Player who needs to make the leap: James Washington/Diontea Johnson
Floor/ceiling: 9-13 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Cleveland Browns
2019 record: 6-10 (-58 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 20th (Pass: 21st / Run: 8th)
Defensive DVOA: 22nd (Pass: 17th / Run: 30th)
New coaches: Kevin Stefanski, HC; Alex Van Pelt, Offensive coordinator; Joe Woods, Defensive coordinator
Added: OT Jack Conklin, TE Austin Hooper, QB Case Keenum, CB Kevin Johnson, DT Andrew Billings, S Andrew Sendejo
Lost: S Damarious Randall, LB Joe Schobert
Injuries: S Grant Delpit (season)
Opt-outs: DT Andrew Billings, OG Colby Gossett, OG Drew Forbes and OT Drake Dorbeck
Key Rookies: OT Jedrick Wills, Alabama (10th); S Grant Delpit, LSU (44th); DT Jordan Elliott, Missouri (88th); LB Jacob Phillips, LSU (97th); TE Harrison Bryant, FAU (115th)
Regression alert! 26th in turnover margin
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.5 wins
Offense
- The Browns hired Kevin Stefanski then immediately got to work building the team to fit his scheme, signing Jack Conklin and Austin Hooper before drafting Jedrick Wills and Harrison Bryant. The tackles should help the Browns run those outside zone run plays the system is known for. And with Hooper (a smart tight end who knows how to find openings in the zone), David Njoku (an athletic seam stretcher) and Bryant (a catch and run tight end), Stefanski can mix and match his tight ends for his play-action package.
- The hope with a rebuilt offensive line is that Mayfield will be more comfortable in the pocket, but his issues in that area go back to college. His footwork has looked better in training camp videos, but what happens when the pass rushers are actually trying to hit him?
- Increased play action is expected to help Mayfield, but it’s not like the Browns weren’t calling PA. They ranked 12th in PA rate last year and they were pretty good at it too, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt per FO.
- The offensive line got upgrades at the tackle spots … in theory. Wills and Conklin should help out in the run game, but there are concerns with each in pass protection and that’s where the Browns had issues with Mayfield tending to take deeper drops in the pocket to get a better view downfield. Right guard is an open competition with a bunch of castoffs and UDFAs competing for the starting job. JC Tretter and Joel Bitonio offer some reliable play at left guard and center.
- The wide receiver corps is top-heavy with Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry not having a lot behind them. Rashard Higgins appeared as if he was on the verge of a breakout after 2018 but didn’t play a lot in 2019. Maybe a new coaching staff will get him back on track. Beckham and Mayfield have to work out some chemistry issues. Beckham had a problem with drops and Mayfield supplied him with one of the lowest rates of catchable passes downfield, per Sports Info Solutions.
Defense
- Myles Garrett will provide pass rush, but the Browns need Olivier Vernon to bounce back after a down year that was marred by a knee sprain. The only proven commodity behind those two on the edge is Adrian Clayborn. Cleveland is deep in the middle with Larry Oghunjobi, Sheldon Richardson and third-round pick Jordan Elliott, though.
- The linebacker corps is a bit of a mess now. Joe Schobert, one of the league’s best coverage linebackers, left in free agency, Christian Kirksey followed him out the door and Mack Wilson’s season is in doubt after suffering a knee injury in camp. Jacob Phillips and Sione Takitaki are next in line but are both run stuffers. B.J. Goodson is the veteran but was deemed expendable by two teams — the Packers and Giants — who don’t have linebackers.
- The secondary doesn’t have a lot of proven talent outside of Denzel Ward, but there is a lot of potential with Greedy Williams and Kevin Johnson filling out the corner group. Rookie Grant Delpit could have added talent to the secondary but was lost for the season with a camp injury. Ronnie Harrison was brought in from Jacksonville but is a totally different player.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Depth across the roster
Biggest strength: Top end talent across the roster
Player who needs to make the leap: Greedy Williams
Floor/ceiling: 6-11 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Cincinnati Bengals
2019 record: 2-14 (-141 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 29th (Pass: 28th / Run: 23rd)
Defensive DVOA: 30th (Pass: 28th / Run: 28th)
Added: CB Trae Waynes, CB Mackensie Alexander, DT D.J. Reader
Lost: DT Andrew Billings, TE Tyler Eifert, LB Nick Vigil, LT Cordy Glenn, CB B.W. Webb, CB Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Darqueze Dennard
Injuries: CB Trae Waynes (season)
Opt-outs: DT Josh Tupuo and OT Isaiah Prince
Key Rookies: QB Joe Burrow, LSU (1st); WR Tee Higgins, Clemson (33rd); LB Logan Wilson, Wyoming (65th); LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, Appalachian State (107th)
Regression alert! 0-3 in coin flip games; -2 pythagorean wins; 30th in turnover margin
Over/under: 5.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 6.7 wins
Offense
- Zac Taylor showed he can adapt by adjusting his favored zone-blocking run game but it was odd that we didn’t see as much play-action or pre-snap motion as we saw in Los Angeles when he was there. Ranked 21st and 19th in PA and Pre-snap motion per Football Outsiders.
- The offensive line, which was a big problem last season, has been reshuffled: Jonah Williams replaces Cody Glenn at LT. Michael Jordan looks like the left guard after struggling as a rookie. Trey Hopkins looks solid after replacing Billy Price last year and was a key to the Bengals run game success late.
- Receiver looks like a position of strength on paper but it’s not a sure thing. AJ Green is coming off a significant lower-body injury. John Ross is a good player — his combo of speed and start-and-stop ability makes him a good route runner even if he isn’t overly nuanced in his approach — but is never healthy. Tee Higgins is a rookie. Tyler Boyd is a sure thing but he’s an elite second banana — not a true no. 1.
Defense
- D.J. Reader fills in a missing piece on the defensive line, which looks a lot deeper but is relying on a lot of veterans to stay healthy. It’s also relying on Carl Lawson to finally stay healthy after missing 13 games over the last two seasons. Mike Daniels can still play in a limited role. Carlos Dunlap and Hubbard are a solid pair of ends and Geno Atkins and Reader could be one of the best interior duos.
- The linebacker unit got a much-needed makeover. Josh Bynes, a solid three-down player, signed in free agency. They also drafted two athletic dudes in Akeem Davis-Gaither and Logan Wilson.
- The secondary got some upgrades, as well: Mackenzie Alexander and Trae Waynes came over from Minnesota, but Waynes is already out for the season. Vonn Bell signed in free agency, too. He’s really only a box safety but a sure tackler, which was sorely needed in Cincy. It seems the Bengals were intent on shoring up their tackling and adding speed to the backend of the defense.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Offensive line
Biggest strength: Potential offensive firepower
Player who needs to make the leap: Jonah Willams and Michael Jordan
Floor/ceiling: 3-9 wins
Win total over-under: Over 5.5 wins
Jump to a different division:
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New Orleans Saints
2019 record: 13-3 (+117 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 4th (Pass: 3rd / Run: 10th)
Defensive DVOA: 11th (Pass: 13th / Run: 5th)
Added: S Malcolm Jenkins, WR Emmanuel Sanders, RB Ty Montgomery, OT James Hurst
Lost: S Vonn Bell, CB Eli Apple, LB A.J. Klein, OG Larry Warford
Opt-outs: TE Jason Vander Laan and TE Cole Wick
Key Rookies: C/G Cesar Ruiz, Michigan (24th); LB Zack Baun, Wisconsin (74th); TE Adam Trautman, Dayton (105th)
Regression alert! 2nd in turnover margin; 1st in fumble recovery percentage; 26th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 10.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 10.5 wins
Offense
- The ceiling for the offense is quite high but still tied to how well Drew Brees ages. He’s still as accurate as ever and even though his aDOT did dip a bit, we’ve seen similar dips in past years only for it to jump back up. With Emmanuel Sanders offering another down-field target, Brees won’t have to rely heavily on backs as outlets, which will naturally boost his aDOT.
- With Sanders here, the passing game shouldn’t be nearly as Michael Thomas-centric. He led the league with 185 targets, which was just 23 short of Rob Moore’s record. The approach has worked during the regular season, but Thomas has been blanketed in the team’s last two playoff losses. Now they have another option who can get open on his own.
- The rest of the offense is largely the same with Larry Warford being replaced by rookie Cesar Ruiz in a money-saving move. TE Adam Trautman and RB/WR Ty Montgomery are the other two additions but will mostly be depth guys.
Defense
- The defense is also largely the same with Malcolm Jenkins offering an upgrade over the departing Vonn Bell. The Saints were vulnerable to big plays, and Jenkins’ presence could help solve that issue.
- The defensive line is loaded both inside and out and is equally effective at stopping the run and getting after the passer. The Saints just missed out on signing Jadeveon Clowney (because the NFL is a bunch of haters) but it’s not like they needed him.
- The secondary is deep with two good outside corners in Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins plus a group of capable slot defenders in PJ Williams, Chauncy Gardner-Johnson and Patrick Robinson.
- Demario Davis might be the league’s most underrated linebacker but there are question marks behind him with Kiko Alonzo and Alex Anzalone on the depth chart.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Drew Brees’ age
Biggest strength: Depth at every position
Player who needs to make the leap: Marcus Davenport
Floor/ceiling: 10-14 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2019 record: 7-9 (+9 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 22nd (Pass: 18th / Run: 26th)
Defensive DVOA: 5th (Pass: 12th / Run: 1st)
Added: QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski
Lost: QB Jameis Winston, WR Breshad Perriman, EDGE Carl Nassib
Opt-outs: OT Brad Seaton
Key Rookies: T Tristan Wirfs, Iowa (13th); S Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota (45th); RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt (76th); WR Tyler Johnson, Minnesota (161st)
Regression alert! 31st in Adjusted Games Lost; 28th in turnover margin
Over-under: 10 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.9 wins
Offense
- Even if Tom Brady isn’t Tom Brady, the Bucs will get one huge benefit from switching QBs: Better field position. Tampa Bay’s opponents had the best average starting field position in the league and that was a direct result of Jameis Winston’s interceptions. Not to mention the NFL record seven pick-6s. The Bucs were fifth in defensive DVOA but at the bottom of the league in points allowed. That will change.
- But even with all the turnover, Jameis was still a more productive QB than Brady was. Of course, having Mike Evans and Chris Godwin helped, but even when those two were hurt, Jameis was still racking up numbers. Brady’s decline might offset whatever benefits a reduction in turnovers might provide. Brady was a below-average QB over the second half of the season per DVOA.
- Brady used a lot of play-action throughout his career, but it hasn’t really been a thing for Arians’ offense. That will be the first clue into whether Arians plans to adjust his offense to fit Brady — or if he’ll just hope that the 43-year-old can handle a completely new approach.
- Offensive line has long been an issue in Tampa, but Brady should make it better. And he can mitigate the issues at tackle, where they have the inconsistent Donovan Smith and rookie Tristan Whirfs playing. The interior is good, at least to the left with guard Ali Marpet and center Ryan Jensen holding things down. Alex Cappa is the weak link at right guard.
Defense
- Todd Bowles orchestrated an almost-historic defensive turnaround, but when a team improves that much, we expected some regression the next season. However, the Bucs are bringing back nearly everyone on that side of the ball: 10 of 11 starters return with highly touted rookie Antoine Winfield being the new guy. Ndamukong Suh, Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett were all free agents but came back. The secondary is young and promising.
- The line is deep. JPP flourished under Bowles. Barrett led the league in sacks. Suh is still good and Vita Vea is emerging as a star nose tackle. Plus Bowles is one of the best coaches in the league at drawing up blitzes.
- The linebacker group is wildly talented, too, with Lavonta David and 2019 first-rounder Devin White. There aren’t big names in the secondary but Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jameel Dean played well as first and second-year players in a demanding scheme.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Running game
Biggest strength: Playmakers on offense
Player who needs to make the leap: Devin White
Floor/ceiling: 9-12 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Atlanta Falcons
2019 record: 7-9 (-18 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 15th (Pass: 12th / Run: 22nd)
Defensive DVOA: 20th (Pass: 25th / Run: 14th)
New coaches: Raheem Morris, Defensive coordinator
Added: EDGE Dante Fowler Jr., TE Hayden Hurst, RB Todd Gurley, EDGE Charles Harris
Lost: CB Desmond Trufant, RB Devonta Freeman, EDGE Vic Beasley Jr., LB De’Vondre Campbell, TE Austin Hooper
Key Rookies: CB A.J. Terrell, Clemson (16th); DT Marlon Davidson, Auburn (47th); C Matt Hennessey, Temple (78th)
Regression alert! 3-0 in coin flip games; 28th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 7.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.1 wins
Offense
- As long as the passing game is strong, which it should be once again with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, the floor for this team remains higher than most. Though Dirk Koetter is doing his best to lower it with an unimaginative offense and outdated approach. It was a down year for Ryan, by his standards, but his tape looks as good as ever.
- Atlanta invested a lot into the offensive line and it didn’t play very well in 2019. Chris Lindstrom showed flashes but injuries wiped out most of his rookie season. Kaleb McGary was straight-up bad as a rookie, which did not come as a surprise. Veteran signings James Carpenter and Jamon Brown were both bad and now Brown is gone. Alex Mack is nearing retirement and coming off a down year but the team did draft his successor in Matt Hennessey. Jake Matthews also had a bad year but he’s still young and should rebound.
Defense
- The Falcons have finished 20th or worse in defensive DVOA for the last three seasons. Injuries have certainly been an issue, but the team’s poor drafting has been the biggest one. Takk McKinnley has underachieved and he’s been the best out of the team’s recent picks on that side of the ball. CB Isaiah Oliver, DT Deandre Senat and LB Duke Riley have been liabilities when they’re on the field.
- The defense did improve after Raheem Morris took over the defensive coordinator role, but that had a lot to do with an easier schedule.
- There still isn’t an obvious area of strength on the defense outside of maybe the line which is at least more promising. Grady Jarrett is a destroyer of worlds but has no reliable help. Dante Fowler was brought in and he’s a solid No. 2 pass rusher. Takk McKinley has to be more consistent. The team did use a second-round pick on Marlon Davidson, an undersized pass rusher in the mold of Jarrett.
- Injuries have clearly affected Deion Jones, whose missed-tackle numbers have been on the rise. Next to him are positional converts Deone Bucannon and Charles Harris.
- The cornerback group is an abomination: AJ Terrell could win the No. 1 job and he was seen as a work in progress by draft experts. Isaiah Oliver and Kendall Sheffield were both lost in coverage last season. The safety pair of Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal has played well in the past, but both have suffered serious injuries in the last two years.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Secondary
Biggest strength: Passing game
Player who needs to make the leap: Kaleb McGary
Floor/ceiling: 6-10 wins
Win total over-under: Under
Carolina Panthers
2019 record: 5-11 (-130 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 28th (Pass: 31st / Run: 9th)
Defensive DVOA: 25th (Pass: 11th / Run: 32nd)
New coaches: Matt Rhule, HC; Joe Brady, Offensive coordinator; Phil Snow, Defensive coordinator
Added: QB Teddy Bridgewater, S Tre Boston, OT Russell Okung, WR Robby Anderson, CB Eli Apple, CB Rasul Douglas
Lost: QB Cam Newton, OG Trai Turner, EDGE Mario Addison, DE Gerald McCoy, TE Greg Olsen, DT Vernon Butler, S Eric Reid, LB Luke Kuechly
Injuries: Eli Apple (IR, at least until Week 4)
Opt-outs: OLB Christian Miller and LB Jordan Mack
Key Rookies: DT Derrick Brown, Auburn; EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State (38th); S Jeremy Chinn, SIU (64th); CB Troy Pride Jr., Notre Dame (113th)
Regression alert! 29th in turnover margin
Over-under:
Football Outsiders projection: 5.7 wins
Offense
- The defense is going to give up a lot of points, which means Teddy Bridgewater is going to have to throw the ball a lot. That’s never really been his thing, but he has a bunch of playmakers around him. And Joe Brady’s scheme seems like a perfect fit. There’s hope for the offense despite a questionable offensive line. It’s just not good enough to make up for the defense.
- Bridgewater does have a few YAC weapons to work with in Christian McCafferey, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, so he may not have to push the ball down the field to produce. But he will have to start throwing deep if he’s going to get the most out of free-agent pickup Robby Anderson.
- The offensive linemen could be solid if Russell Okung can stay healthy, which he has rarely done. Left guard Michael Schofield has held up well in pass protection even if he’s not much of a run blocker. Center Matt Paradis is a reliable veteran. Right guard John Miller is not reliable but is a veteran. Right tackle Taylor Moton is talented but the last coaching staff didn’t have much faith in him.
Defense
- The NFL’s worst team based on FO’s projections. Also projected as the worst defense, which makes a lot of sense after looking at the roster. Almost every recognizable name is gone from last year’s unit. Luke Keuchly, Dontari Poe, Gerald McCoy, Mario Addison, Bruce Irvin and Vernon Butler left or retired, leaving Kawaan Short all by himself. The Panthers have reloaded the line with young, cheap talent in Derrick Brown, Yetur Gross-Matos and Brian Burns, but that’s the strength of the defense and outside of Short, there isn’t anyone with a proven track record.
- Shaq Thompson is a good linebacker but Tahir Whitehead is a replacement-level player and you’ve never heard of anyone else in the group. Kuechly will be sorely missed.
- The team’s best corners, James Bradberry and Ross Cockrell, left in free agency. Donte Jackson regressed after a promising rookie season, giving up way too many big plays. Eli Apple was brought in to bring his brand of inconsistent coverage and the team drafted Troy Pride, who is a little stiff. Other than that, it’s just a bunch of guys off the street.
- There’s a little more hope for the safety group. Tre Boston is the veteran presence in the back end. He’s not a playmaker but he’s not a liability. Rookie Jeremy Chinn is an athletic hard-hitter but his coverage skills are lacking.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Secondary
Biggest strength: Playmakers
Player who needs to make the leap: Donta Jackson
Floor/ceiling: 3-7 wins
Win total over-under: Under
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Indianapolis Colts
2019 record: 7-9 (-12 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 19th (Pass: 24th / Run: 7th)
Defensive DVOA: 17th (Pass: 19th / Run: 19th)
Added: DT DeForest Buckner, QB Philip Rivers, CB Xavier Rhodes
Lost: EDGE Jabaal Sheard, TE Eric Ebron, WR Devin Funchess
Injuries: TE Trey Burton (IR, at least until Week 4), DT Sheldon Day (IR, at least until Week 4), DE Kemoko Turay (PUP, at least until Week 6)
Opt-outs: LB Skai Moore, CB Marvell Tell and S Rolan Milligan
Key rookies: WR Michael Pittman Jr., USC (34th); RB Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (41st); S Julian Blackmon, Utah (85th)
Regression alert! 2-4 in coin flip games
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.9 wins
Offense
- Philip Rivers was presumed “washed” by a lot of NFL observers, who mostly tuned in just in time to watch him throw a game-ending interception in crunch time. Based on his film, though, Rivers is still a very good quarterback. He’s got a weak arm but it’s not really an issue for him. He’s not Mahomes but his decline is overblown, mostly because of the interceptions. But a lot of those interceptions came when the game was already lost.
- The offensive line returns all five starters for a second straight year. If there’s a weakness it’s on the right side of the line, which had a hard time protecting the passer, but that probably had a lot to do with Jacoby Brissett having the second-highest average-time-to-throw in the league. The ball will come out quicker with Rivers back there, making things easier for the line. This remains one of the league’s best run-blocking units, though its run blocking did slip a bit last season.
- T.Y. Hilton is still T.Y. Hilton but the success of the receiving corps likely comes down to rookie Michael Pittman having a good season. Fortunately for him, Rivers loves his big receivers. It’s a big year for Parris Campbell, who missed a lot of the 2019 season with various injuries: sports hernia, broken hand, fractured foot, and a hamstring injury. And he was just involved in a car accident, which disrupted what was reportedly a good camp for him.
Defense
- The Colts’ biggest strength on defense is the linebacker corps, unfortunately. Not really where you want to be strongest on that side of the ball. Darius Leonard, Anthony Walker and Bobby Okereke is a very good group, though.
- Adding DeForest Buckner to the defensive line should help all of their pass rushers. The 49ers used him as a protection-dictating chess piece and I’m expecting defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus to deploy him in a similar manner. That should benefit Justin Houston, who was still very productive in 2019.
- The secondary is a bit unsettled. I guess Xavier Rhodes is penciled in as a starter. Behind him, it’s 2019 Day 2 pick Rock Ya-Sin and veteran T.J. Carrie. Second-year box safety Khari Willis will start alongside Malik Hooker, a rangy centerfield safety who hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Rookie Julian Blackmon should also get some time as a nickel-safety hybrid.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Coverage
Biggest strength: Offensive line
Player who needs to make the leap: Rock Ya-Sin
Floor/ceiling: 8-11 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Tennessee Titans
2019 record: 9-7 (+71 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 6th (Pass: 6th / Run: 5th)
Defensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 21st / Run: 9th)
New coaches: Jim Haslett hired as LB coach, no replacement for Dean Pees hired
Added: EDGE Vic Beasley
Lost: QB Marcus Mariota, OT Jack Conklin, DT Jurrell Casey, TE Delanie Walker
Opt-outs: OT Anthony McKinney
Key rookies: T Isaiah Wilson, Georgia (29th); CB Kristian Fulton, LSU (61st); RB Darrynton Evans, App State (93rd)
Regression alert! 30th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.1 wins
Offense
- It’s going to be nearly impossible for Ryan Tannehill to replicate what he did last year, and that’s what the Titans were paying for when they essentially gave him the Kirk Cousins deal. There weren’t really improvements in the areas where Tannehill was weak — processing time and pocket presence — as he still took a bunch of sacks. The difference in 2019 was him hitting throws at an unsustainable rate. He also performed well on PA passes and under pressure — both are typically volatile year to year.
- While it was Tannehill’s breakout that carried the offense, traditional football observers still see Derrick Henry as the engine of the offense. But there’s a lot of wear and tear on that engine after another high-volume season. Henry is an alien in terms of size and strength, but you have to imagine all those hits will start taking their toll eventually.
- Play-action was a big weapon for Tennessee in 2019 but their usage didn’t really increase all that much, per Football Outsiders, going from 29% to 31% from 2018 to 2019. They were just a lot more effective. The Titans led the league by almost a full yard, averaging 11.2 yards per play. The last team to average over 11 yards per play on play-action was the record-breaking 2013 Broncos. Looking at the best play action teams of the last decade, almost all of them regressed the next year. Their average DVOA dropped from 71.5% to 32%, per Football Outsiders.
Defense
- The Jadeveon Clowney signing was sorely needed. Before he agreed to terms, the pass rush was going to rely heavily on defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons, Harold Landry and Vic Beasley, plus Mike Vrabel drawing up some exotic pressures. With Clowney around, the defensive staff has a proven talent to build its pass rush around. It should be a strength for the team.
- Kevin Byard is a rock at the back of the secondary, but the cornerback group is a big question mark. At the same time, there’s potential there. Adoree Jackson can play when healthy. Malcolm Butler may be overpaid but he’s a reliable No. 2. And Tennessee added the ageless Jonathan Joseph to the room. The team also drafted Kristian Fulton, who was one of the best man corners in the class. Given the volatility of cornerback play around the NFL in general, this could end up being one of the better groups in the league — or slightly below average, as it was a year ago.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up, I guess
Biggest weakness: Regression
Biggest strength: Coaching staff
Player who needs to make the leap: Harold Landry
Floor/ceiling: 6-11 wins
Win total over-under: Under
Houston Texans
2019 record: 10-6 (-7 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 16th / Run: 11th)
Defensive DVOA: 26th (Pass: 26th / Run: 22nd)
New coaches: Anthony Weaver, Defensive coordinator
Added: RB David Johnson, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Randall Cobb
Lost: WR DeAndre Hopkins, DT D.J Reader, CB Jonathan Joseph
Injuries: CB Gareon Conley (IR, at least until Week 4)
Opt-outs: DT Eddie Vanderdoes
Key Rookies: DT Ross Blacklock, TCU (40th); EDGE Jonathan Greenard, Florida (90th); OT Charlie Heck, UNC (126th); CB John Reid, Penn State (141st); WR Isaiah Coulter, Rhode Island (171st)
Regression alert! +2 Pythagorean wins
Over-under: 7.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.5 wins
- The offense still revolves around Deshaun Watson — which certainly isn’t a bad thing — but his degree of difficulty was raised considerably with DeAndre Hopkins leaving town. He was replaced by Brandin Cooks, who’s suffered five concussions in his career, and Randall Cobb, who is on the wrong side of 30. Will Fuller, Watson’s best weapon, can’t stay healthy.
- Houston has invested a lot into the offensive line and it’s still just fine but, on paper, it could be one of the better ones in the league if everything breaks right: Tunsil is one of the more talented blindside protectors in the league. Tytus Howard was inconsistent as expected but shows flashes. 2019 draft pick Max Scharping was solid in pass pro as a rookie. And C Nick Martin looks to have developed into a good player. Right guard is still a black hole.
Defense
- J.J. Watt’s health is the biggest question mark on the defense. He was the Watt of old last year before suffering a pectoral tear, which somehow didn’t stop him from making it back for the playoffs. Whitney Mercilus was disappointing in the starring role after Watt was hurt, The highly-paid edge rusher tallied only 7.5 sacks. The pass-rushing cupboard is bare beyond those two unless second-round pick Ross Blacklock is productive as a rookie.
- The linebacking corps is a strength. Zach Cunningham just signed an extension and it’s well deserved. He’s a dominant run defender who is reliable in coverage but not a difference-maker. Benardrick McKinney is like a lesser version of him, but a useful player.
- There are a lot of recognizable corners here: Bradley Roby, Gareon Conley, Lonnie Johnson, Phillip Gaines, Vernon Hargraves, rookie John Reid. Houston is just hoping that three of them can stay healthy and play well. It’s not a terrible strategy, actually.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Bill O’Brien
Biggest strength: Deshaun Watson
Player who needs to make the leap: Lonnie Johnson
Floor/ceiling: 6-10 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Jacksonville Jaguars
2019 record: 6-10 (-97 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 22nd / Run: 28th)
Defensive DVOA: 29th (Pass: 22nd / Run: 31st)
New coaches: Jay Gruden, Offensive coordinator
Added: LB Joe Schobert, TE Tyler Eifert, CB Rashaan Melvin (opted out)
Lost: EDGE Calais Campbell, CB A.J. Bouye, QB Nick Foles, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, RB Leonard Fournette
Opt-outs: DT Al Woods, CB Rashaan Melvin and DE Lerentee McCray
Key Rookies: CB CJ Henderson, Florida (9th); EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU (20th); Round 2; WR Laviska Shenault, Colorado (42nd); DT Davon Hamilton, Ohio State (73rd); OT Ben Bartch, St. John’s (116th)
Regression alert! 4th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.1 wins
Offense
- Gardner Minshew was a far worse player per DVOA after that first stretch before Foles returned from injury. QBR and PFF grades both paint a similar picture of his season. He put up five straight “below average” PFF grades before a meaningless Week 17 game v. Indianapolis.
- Minshew’s supporting cast is actually pretty solid. The offensive line is average and there’s continuity there. Right guard is the only question mark, with two young tackles (Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor), highly paid LG Andrew Norwell and C Brandon Linder coming off his best season as a pro.
- The receiving corps is young, talented and athletic with Laviska Shenault joining D.J. Chark, Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook, who all had good years despite the unsettled quarterback situation. Tyler Eifert is playing tight end but hasn’t been healthy in half a decade. In Jay Gruden, they have a proven offensive play-caller making sure they get the most out of those players.
Defense
- Unlike the offense, the defense saw a lot of turnover. Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Yannick Ngakoue and Calais Campbell are all gone. They’ve been replaced by rookies and mid-level free agents.
- It looks like it’ll be Josh Allen on his own in the pass rush. K’Lavon Chaisson better have a big rookie season or quarterbacks will have plenty of time to attack the unproven secondary. 2018 first-round pick Taven Bryan has reportedly been a standout in camp and could provide interior pressure.
- The secondary is going to rely on C.J. Henderson has the no. 1 guy as a rookie. What could go wrong there? Rashaan Melvin was supposed to be the No. 2 guy but opted out, now that role falls to Tre Herndon.
- The strength of the defense is probably the linebacker pair of Joe Schobert and Myles Jack. Both guys can cover a lot of ground in coverage, and they’ll have to in order to cover for the secondary.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down (but for good reason)
Biggest weakness: Quarterback
Biggest strength: Young playmakers
Player who needs to make the leap: Taven Bryan
Floor/ceiling: 3-6-wins
Win total over-under: Under
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San Francisco 49ers
2019 record: 13-3 (+169 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 7th (Pass: 8th / Run: 12th)
Defensive DVOA: 2nd (Pass: 2nd / Run: 11th)
Added: LT Trent Williams
Lost: DT DeForest Buckner, WR Emmanuel Sanders, LT Joe Staley
Injuries: WR Jalen Hurd (season)
Opt-outs: WR Travis Benjamin
Key Rookies: DT Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina (14th); WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State (25th)
Regression alert! 7-3 coin flip games; 6th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 10.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.4 wins
Offense
- Given the question marks at receiver, Jimmy Garoppolo needs to evolve as a passer if the 49ers are going to take a step back after taking a giant step forward in 2019. The two areas where he needs to show the most growth: Throwing the ball to the perimeter and decision making. Garoppolo is still relatively young (at least in terms of on-field experience) so there is still hope.
- Emmanuel Sanders was the big loss on offense and puts pressure on Brandon Aiyuk to perform from Day 1 Kendrick Bourne is underrated and Dante Pettis still has talent but neither are a savior for this group. Deebo Samuel may have to take on the No. 1 receiver role after serving as more of a swiss-army knife role last year. If Kyle Shanahan can get a healthy season out of Jordan Reed — lol — the deficiencies at receiver may not matter. George Kittle needs some more help than Samuel.
- Joe Staley retired but was replaced by Trent Williams, who’s actually an upgrade and should be healthy after taking the 2019 season off while fighting with the inept Washington front office.
Defense
- The roster purge wasn’t nearly as bad as it was expected to be, thanks in large part to the trade of DeForest Buckner, which opened up cap space. The draft pick they got in return allowed the 49ers to immediately replace him with Javon Kinlaw.
- Everything else is essentially the same. Underrated linebacker Fred Warner was placed on the COVID-19 list but shouldn’t miss more than one week. The secondary remains strong with the ageless Richar Sherman at the No. 1 spot and Emmanual Moseley, now a full-time starter, and slot ace Ka’Waun Williams rounding out the starting group. Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward form one of the best safety pairs in the league.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Receiver
Biggest strength: Defensive line
Player who needs to make the leap: Deebo Samuel
Floor/ceiling: 10-13 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Seattle Seahawks
2019 record: 11-5 (+7 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 5th (Pass: 4th / Run: 6th)
Defensive DVOA: 18th (Pass: 15th / Run: 26th)
Added: TE Greg Olsen, EDGE Bruce Irvin, C B.J. Finney, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, OT Brandon Shell, CB Quinton Dunbar, RB Carlos Hyde, WR Josh Gordon, S Jamal Adams, WR Paul Richardson
Lost: DT Quinton Jefferson, EDGE Ezekiel Ansah, OT Germain Ifedi, OT George Fant, OG Mike Iupati, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney*, C Justin Britt, OG D.J. Fluker
Opt-outs: OG Chance Warmack
Key Rookies: LB Jordyn Brooks, Texas Tech (27th); EDGE Darrell Taylor, Tennessee (48th); OG Damien Lewis, LSU (69th)
Regression alert! 5-1 in coin flip games; +3 pythagorean wins; 27th in Adjusted Games Lost
Over-under: 9.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.7 wins
Offense
- This is the most talent Russell Wilson has had to work with in his career. If Greg Olsen is healthy and Josh Gordon is on the field, it’s arguably one of the best supporting casts in the league. Hopefully, this is the year the Seahawks coaching staff let’s Wilson throw the ball around.
- Tackles Germain Ifedi and George Fant are gone, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. They brought in a bunch of mid-level free agents to help fill in the line. Damien Lewis, the rookie guard out of LSU, will eventually earn playing time. Mike Iupati re-signed after a bit of a bounce-back season and should start at left guard. Justin Britt retired, leaving an opening at center that will be filled by Ethan Pocic, another LSU product.
Defense
- The defensive line is devoid of pass rush talent after the Seahawks passed on a number of productive veteran free agents. Jadeveon Clowney returning was really Seattle’s last hope for putting together a reliable pass rush. Now, they’re banking on guys like Benson Mayowa, L.J. Collier and Bruce Irvin to creat pressure. Not good. It’s a good thing they have guys who can cover.
- The secondary was deep even before they traded for Jamal Adams. The trade for Quinton Dunbar and the development of Marquise Blair should allow Seattle to play more nickel sets and a lot more man coverage. It’s not the Legion of Boom but the secondary is the clear strength of this team behind Wilson.
- The linebacker group isn’t far behind with first-round pick Jordyn Brooks joining Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. Cody Barton is a good depth piece who would be a starter for most teams.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Pass rush
Biggest strength: Russell Wilson
Player who needs to make the leap: LJ Collier
Floor/ceiling: 8-11 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Arizona Cardinals
2019 record: 5-10-1 (-81 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 20th / Run: 2nd)
Defensive DVOA: 23rd (Pass: 27th / Run: 12th)
Added: WR DeAndre Hopkins, EDGE Devon Kennard, DT Jordan Phillips, LB De’Vondre Campbell
Lost: RB David Johnson, C A.Q. Shipley
Injuries: CB Robert Alford (season)
Opt-outs: OT Marcus Gilbert
Key Rookies: LB Isaiah Simmons, Clemson (8th); T Josh Jones, Houston (72nd); DT Leki Fotu, Utah (114th)
Regression alert! 1-3-1 in coin flip games
Over-under: 6.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.1 wins
Offense
- Kyler Murray is the key to the team’s turnaround, obviously. He has to stop taking sacks at such a high rate in order to make the leap. Some positive regression in the red zone should give him a statistical boost. As Murray gets more used to NFL speed, his running ability should be more of an asset, as well.
- The Cardinals offensive line finished last in adjusted games lost for a second straight year. If healthy, it’s probably a below-average unit, which is an upgrade. D.J. Humphries is fine-to-good. Justin Pugh is reliable, Mason Cole is a question mark but isn’t going to be any worse than A.Q. Shipley. Right guard J.R. Sweezy is a good run blocker and tackle Kelvin Beachum has experience, which is the best thing we can say about him. Third-round pick Josh Jones, whom a lot of draft experts loved, is not in the mix at right tackle apparently.
- DeAndre Hopkins was the missing piece for the receiver group. He gives the Cardinals an answer vs. man coverage, which they didn’t have last year. It also allows Christian Kirk to settle into the No. 2 role. Andy Isabella needs to break out for this offense to reach its ceiling.
Defense
- Once again, it’s Chandler Jones and just a bunch of guys in the pass rush. Zach Allen does offer some promise as a second-year guy who had some pre-draft fans. The linebacker group is more athletic after drafting Isaiah Simmons, but will he be good at football right away?
- The play of the secondary really comes down to Patrick Peterson who struggled after returning from a PED suspension — never a good sign — but did rebound late with some good games. Robert Alford is missing a second consecutive season due to injury which puts more pressure on Byron Murphy to get up to speed after an underwhelming rookie season.
- Budda Baker is a stud and his coverage “issues” are overblown. He held up well against George Kittle, for instance. He’ll continue to get better. Jalen Thompson is the other safety and played well as a fifth-round rookie.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Pass defense
Biggest strength: Offensive scheme
Player who needs to make the leap: Andy Isabella
Floor/ceiling: 6-10 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Los Angeles Rams
2019 record: 9-7 (+30 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 17th (Pass: 13th / Run: 20th)
Defensive DVOA: 9th (Pass: 10th / Run: 10th)
New coaches: Brandon Staley, Defensive coordinator; Kevin O’Connell, Offensive coordinator
Added: DT A’Shawn Robinson, EDGE Leonard Floyd
Lost: RB Todd Gurley, WR Brandin Cooks, LB Cory Littleton, EDGE Dante Fowler Jr., CB Nickell Robey-Coleman, S Eric Weddle, EDGE Clay Matthews
Opt-outs: OT Chandler Brewer
Key Rookies: RB Cam Akers, Florida State (52nd); WR Van Jefferson, Florida (57th); EDGE Terrell Lewis, Alabama (84th); S Terrell Burgess, Utah (104th)
Regression alert! 0-4 in coin flip games
Over-under: 8.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 8.4 wins
- Jared Goff showed last year that he’s mostly a product of what’s around him. About that…
- The team’s biggest issue last year — the offensive line — doesn’t appear to be improved this year. Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein are the reliable players but neither are without their issues. The interior was not improved at all. Austin Corbett, Brian Allen and Austin Blythe are back and all ranked at the bottom of the league in PFF grade.
- Everything else around the offensive line is basically the same. Cooper Kupp will continue to improve in the slot, but Robert Woods’ best football is probably behind him. Van Jefferson has looked good in camp and was one of the smooth route runners in school.
Defense
- They’re replacing Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews with Leonard Floyd and Samson Ebukam in the starting lineup. That’s a downgrade but at least Aaron Donald is still around to devour offensive lines, so the pass rush should fine.
- Corey Littleton, the team’s best linebacker, was lost because of poor cap management and there is nobody you’ve heard of in line to replace him.
- Jalen Ramsey will lead the secondary and has help in safeties John Johnson and Taylor Rapp. Troy Hill is a good No. 2 corner and Darious Williams isn’t a liability. The secondary could be the strength of the defense. But Wade Phillips is gone.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Offensive line
Biggest strength: Sean McVay
Player who needs to make the leap: Brian Allen
Floor/ceiling: 6-10 wins
Win total over-under: Under
Jump to a different division:
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Kansas City Chiefs
2019 record: 12-4 (+143 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 3rd (Pass: 2nd / Run: 14th)
Defensive DVOA: 14th (Pass: 6th / Run: 29th)
Added: RG Kelechi Osemele
Lost: CB Kendall Fuller, EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah, RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff (Opt out)
Opt-outs: OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff and RB Damien Williams
Key Rookies: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU (32nd); LB Willie Gay Jr., Mississippi State (63rd); OT Lucas Niang, TCU (96th)
Over-under: 11.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 10.6 wins
Offense
- We’re probably at the point where we can just pencil the Chiefs in as division champs. Even last year with Mahomes missing games and being hobbled for others, they won 12 games. There’s no reason to suspect any of their success on either side of the ball was flukey and they retained basically everyone.
- The only real change is on the offensive line with Duvernay-Tardiff being replaced by former all-pro guard Kelechi Osemele, which may actually be an upgrade in the run game, which is the one area where the Chiefs struggled. Especially in the red zone, suggesting that the offense could be even better. The line was banged up a lot last year, so better health should lead to improvements. Rookie Lucas Niang opted out, too.
- It looked like Sammy Watkins was gone but the Chiefs restructured him so the supporting cast is all back. Mecole Hardman is the one player to watch. If he takes a second-year leap, defenses don’t have a chance. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Damien Williams will split snaps at running back.
Defense
- The defensive line remains the same with Chris Jones being retained. Getting a full, healthy season from Frank Clark, who came on down the stretch after a rough start to his Chiefs career, should help the pass rush, which was inconsistent at best last season.
- Kansas City added some much-needed speed to what was a bad linebacker corps by drafting Willie Gay out of Mississipi State.
- The secondary will miss Breshad Breeland for four-games due to suspension and lost Kendall Fuller, but the safety pairing of Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill should offer enough cover for an undermanned cornerback group.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Defensive depth
Biggest strength: Patrick Mahomes
Player who needs to make the leap: Any of the young defensive linemen
Floor/ceiling: 10-15 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Los Angeles Chargers
2019 record: 5-11 (-8 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 12th (Pass: 9th / Run: 24th)
Defensive DVOA: 21st (Pass: 20th / Run: 25th)
Added: CB Chris Harris Jr., DT Linval Joseph, OT Bryan Bulaga, OG Trai Turner, OG Ryan Groy
Lost: QB Philip Rivers, OT Russell Okung, RB Melvin Gordon
Injuries: Derwin James (season)
Key rookies: QB Justin Herbert, Oregon (6th); LB Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (23rd); RB Joshua Kelley, UCLA (112th)
Regression alert! 2-4 in coin flip games; -3 pythagorean wins; 3rd in Adjusted Games Lost; T32nd in turnover margin; 32nd in fumble recovery percentage
Over-under: 7.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.5 wins
Offense
- The quarterback situation is a question mark (without any satisfying answers) but there are so many skill players to work with — Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler — that playing quarterback should be a bit easier. Tyrod Taylor will get the first crack at it, but it’s only a matter of time before Justin Herbert sees the field. At least that should be the plan.
- The offensive line could actually be good for the first time in what feels like forever — if you just close your eyes when you get to left tackle on the depth chart. Brian Bulaga and Trai Turner were brought in to solidify the right side. Mike Pouncey is the center and a good one when he’s not hurt. Dan Feeny and Forrest Lamp will spar for snaps at left guard. Sam Tevi is not good but he’s starting at left tackle after the team flirted with the idea of moving Lamp there.
- The line might be healthier, and therefore better, but the sack numbers probably won’t reflect it with Philip Rivers being replaced by Tylor and Herbert.
Defense
- The pass rush should be great if Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are healthy. Linval Joseph is old but an upgrade over the even older Brandon Mebane. Jerry Tillery was not good as a rookie but did look good at Notre Dame, so there’s still hope.
- Linebacker will probably be the weak spot with rookie Kenneth Murray and Bengals castoff/missed tackle machine Nick Vigil holding things down as the nickel pair. Derwin James could have made up for their deficiencies, but he was injured because the Chargers can’t have anything nice.
- The secondary is considered to be the deepest in the league, but its reputation is largely based on how it’s performed with James on the field. Chris Harris is old, same goes for Casey Hayward. It’s not a given that this is a strength for them.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Down
Biggest weakness: Quarterback
Biggest strength: Pass rush
Player who needs to make the leap: Nasir Adderly
Floor/ceiling: 5-9 wins
Win total over-under: Under
Denver Broncos
2019 record: 7-9 (-34 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 26th (Pass: 27th / Run: 19th)
Defensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 14th / Run: 16th)
New coaches: Pat Shurmur, Offensive coordinator
Added: DT Jurrell Casey, CB A.J. Bouye, G Graham Glasgow, RB Melvin Gordon, TE Nick Vannett
Lost: CB Chris Harris Jr., C Connor McGovern, DE Derek Wolfe
Opt-outs: OT Ja’Wuan James and DT Kyle Peko
Key Rookies: WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama (15th); WR KJ Hamler, Penn State (46th); CB Michael Ojemudia, Iowa (77th); C Lloyd Cushenberry, LSU (83rd); DT McTelvin Agim, Arkansas (93rd)
Regression alert! 2-4 in coin flip games
Over-under: 7.5 wins
Football Outsiders win projection: 7.0 wins
Offense
- Drew Lock has plenty of talent around him, but Denver is still banking on a lot of young dudes. Cortland Sutton is clearly a star, but we have no idea what they’re going to get from Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, though both have produced highlight training camp videos. TE Noah Fant showed flashes as a rookie and could develop into a Pro Bowl-level player as soon as this year.
A lot of Lock’s production came in the quick game, which wasn’t seen as his thing coming out of college. His efficiency fell off a cliff the longer he held the ball. That will need to change if the Broncos are going to get the most out of this supporting cast. - The Broncos have a solid interior offensive line with Dalton Risner, Graham Glasgow and rookie Lloyd Cushenberry but the tackle position is a mess. Garrett Bolles is physically gifted but can’t stop drawing flags. Ja’Wuan James opted out, leaving Elijah Wilkinson to take the job instead of challenging for Bolles’ spot on the left. Veteran Demar Dotson will compete for the starting right tackle job.
Defense
- Von Miller is starting to show some signs decline but he’s still very productive. And Bradley Chubb is coming back after missing his second year following an impressive rookie campaign. The knee injury is still giving him problems and he’ll apparently be on a pitch count to start the season. Jurrell Casey is still a good player but just turned in 30 and isn’t a massive upgrade over the departing Derek Wolfe.
- Secondary looks like a strength on paper. A.J. Bouye was a low-risk/high-reward acquisition from Jacksonville. Rookie Michael Ojemudia produced some good tape at Iowa. And Bryce Callahan returns to the nickel spot in Fangio’s defense after missing his first season in Denver with a foot injury.
- After the reliable-but-not exciting Todd Davis was cut, it’s Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson. Both are young, and therefore have potential, but this looks like the weak link on the defense.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up
Biggest weakness: Reliance on youth
Biggest strength: Playmakers
Player who needs to make the leap: Drew Lock
Floor/ceiling: 5-10 wins
Win total over-under: Over
Las Vegas Raiders
2019 record: 7-9 (-106 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 9th (Pass: 7th / Run: 21st)
Defensive DVOA: 31st (Pass: 30th / Run: 21st)
Added: LB Cory Littleton, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, QB Marcus Mariota, TE Jason Witten, S Jeff Heath, EDGE Carl Nassib, WR Nelson Agholor
Lost: S Karl Joseph, CB Daryl Worley
Injuries: WR Tyrell Williams (season)
Opt-outs: LB Ukeme Eligwe, DE Jeremiah Valoaga and CB D.J. Killings
Key Rookies: WR Henry Ruggs III, Alabama (12th); CB Damon Arnette, Ohio State (19th); WR Bryan Edwards, South Carolina (81st)
Regression alert! +2 pythagorean wins
Over-under: 7.5 wins
Football Outsiders projection: 7.7 wins
- Given Derek Carr’s sensitivity to pressure, the passing game’s success will be tied directly to the play of the offensive line. It looks quite good on paper. LT Kolton Miller, the one cheap player on the roster (though he was a first-round pick) improved after a bad rookie season. Richie Incognito is an awful human but good football player. Rodney Hudson is old but one of the smartest centers in the league. Gabe Jackson is a good starter and the same goes for the expensive Trent Brown, whose biggest issue is staying healthy.
- With Tyrell Williams out for the year, it’s on Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs to produce on the perimeter, which is concerning. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow do provide some play-making inside, though Renfrow is just a possession receiver and Waller could be a one-hit wonder. Josh Jacobs is the best player on the offense, but he’s also a running back, so…
Defense
- The Raiders are still trying to figure out how to replace Khalil Mack’s production. Clelin Ferrell was not it and started losing snaps at the end of the season. Maxx Crosby surprised as a rookie, but his production is a little flukey and a lot of it came in a few games against bad competition. Maurice Hurst could be a star on the interior.
- The one area where Las Vegas is clearly better is at linebacker after signing Corey Littleton and Nick Kwiatwoksi. Both players are much better in coverage compared to what the Raiders had last year.
- The young secondary is getting a lot of hype out of camp and Prince Amukamara being cut is probably a good sign for the young guys. Damon Arnette produced good tape at Ohio State but his testing numbers raised some huge red flags. Amik Robinson is feisty, undersized rookie who was a cult hero for draft twitter. Trayvon Mullen looked good for a rookie.
Rapid fire
Trending up or down? Up, I guess
Biggest weakness: Pass rush
Biggest strength: Offensive line
Player who needs to make the leap: Clelin Ferrell
Floor/ceiling: 5-11/9-7
Win total over-under: Under
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