ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves moving in the mid- and eastern Atlantic on Sunday with increased chances of developing, according to the NHC 2 p.m. update.
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands could become a tropical depression if favorable conditions contribute to the development of the low as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
The disturbance, currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and move near Hispaniola around the middle of the week. Forecasters have given this system 40% odds of development in the next two days, and 50% in the next five days.
Another small low-pressure system over the tropical Atlantic, midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles, has become more concentrated since Saturday and continues to bring showers and thunderstorms. Weather conditions are predicted in favor of this low pressure evolving into a tropical depression by the middle of next week, based on NHC reports.
NHC forecasters gave it a 40% chance of developing within five days and a 30% chance of developing within two.
The third wave in the Atlantic, spotted about a hundred miles west of the Windward Islands earlier Sunday, has dissipated.
If any system develops into a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater, the first one to do so will be the sixth named storm of the season and don the moniker of Fred. If two develop, the second will be named Grace. Should one of them form, it would be ahead of when the NOAA typically expects the sixth named storm of the year to form, which according to records takes place on average around Sept. 8.
As the season pushes forward, the tropics will be entering a period of time known as the “peak of season,” which is between mid-August and mid-October and is typically the stretch of time meteorologists see the most hurricane activity.
Colorado State University published its first sub-season outlook Thursday, indicating its expectations for the next two weeks to have above-normal activity citing warmer-than-usual sea-surface temperatures.
Temperature ranges in the Caribbean and the west Atlantic are in the mid- to low 80s and appear to be “highly favorable” for tropical storm development, according to Spectrum News 13 Atlantic measurements.
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(Orlando Sentinel staff writer Katie Rice contributed to this report.)
