If Bears fans had been in attendance at the introductory press conference for Ryan Poles and Matt Eberflus in January of 2022, “We’re gonna take the North and never give it back,” would have been Poles’ show-stopping, raise-the-roof moment.
But that might have been topped by a drop-the-mic moment, when Poles — who had hired Eberflus less than 48 hours after he himself was hired — was asked if he could have done a more expansive search for his first head coach as an NFL general manager.
“I was given that opportunity. I found him,” Poles said confidently, pointing to Eberflus on the dais at the “Mugs” Halas Auditorium at Halas Hall.
At that moment, Poles owned the room and questions about the convenience of that hire did not resonate. It seemed unusual that a first-time NFL general manager could find his coaching soul mate (“my brother,” Poles said at the time) less than two days after being hired — and it just happened to be a candidate the Bears already had interviewed, who happened to share the same agency representation.
Less than two years later, with the Bears 3-18 in the Poles/Eberflus era and the 2023 rebuild looking as shaky as the 2022 teardown, Poles’ hiring of Eberflus tops the list of decisions by the first-time GM that have put his own standing at Halas Hall under more intense scrutiny than that celebratory day in 2022.
His intuition on Eberflus looks faulty. His trade for Chase Claypool now looks like the panic move he was trying to avoid — did he not know that Mike Tomlin doesn’t get rid of talented players for no reason?
Trading Roquan Smith and replacing him with Tremaine Edmunds was a “trust me” moment for Poles and Eberflus that’s not looking too good right now. Roquan is the leader of a Ravens defense that ranks third in points and yards after four weeks. Edmunds doesn’t look like any better of a fit for Eberflus’ defense than Roquan did.
While GM Brad Holmes has put the Lions in position to take the North by building solid offensive and defensive lines, Poles is struggling in both foundation areas.
Even with rookie right tackle Darnell Wright looking like a hit, the offensive line is a work-in-progress at best — still undependable in crunch-time moments. The fortified defensive line has two sacks. Rookie defensive tackles Gervon Dexter (10 snaps vs. the Broncos) and Zacch Pickens (nine snaps vs. the Broncos) are playing less when they should be playing more.
It’s still relatively early for Poles, but almost every move he’s made is either trending negative (Eberflus, Claypool) or a work-in-progress (Edmunds, Wright, Dexter/Pickens, DJ Moore’s impact on the offense).
Things need to happen quickly — like the next three games — because the Bears are dangerously close to another nightmare, where the worst-case scenario (another 3-14 season) might be the best-case scenario (the chance to get USC quarterback Caleb Williams and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.).
And even if that ensues, how much faith will Bears fans have in Ryan Poles to get it right?
2. Here’s how bad Poles’ luck is running these days: With the Bears last in the NFL in sacks (two) and tied for 28th in takeaways (two), four players Poles inherited but let go combined for 11 sacks, five forced fumbles and three takeaways last week — the Chargers’ Khalil Mack (six sacks, two forced fumbles), the Eagles’ Nick Morrow (three sacks, one forced fumble), the Titans’ Trevis Gipson (one sack, one forced fumble) and the Seahawks’ Mario Edwards (one sack, one forced fumble).
Mack’s six sacks against the Raiders are more than the Bears’ defensive line has had in the last 15 games.
3. Signing T.J. Edwards to replace Morrow was an upgrade, but perhaps not as much as it looked. Both led their respective teams in tackles in 2022, but Edwards played behind the best defensive line in the NFL with the Eagles. Morrow played behind the worst defensive line in the NFL with the Bears.
Morrow was cut by the Eagles after the preseason and signed to the practice squad. But since being promoted in Week 2, he’s getting better every week — 16 tackles, three sacks, four quarterback hits, five tackles for loss (including a safety) and one forced fumble in three games (179 snaps).
Edwards has 51 tackles in four games (244 snaps), with two tackles for loss and two quarterback hits.
4. The Bears’ defense really has zero takeaways this season — the two they have are interceptions of Chiefs’ back-up Blaine Gabbert in garbage time of a 41-10 blowout. But even the two takeaways are the fewest they’ve had through four games since at least 1939, per research via pro-football-reference.com.
In fact, the Bears not only don’t have any fumble recoveries in four games, they’ve only forced one fumble — by cornerback Jaylon Johnson against Buccaneers tight end David Wells that was recovered by Baker Mayfield, who threw a 32-yard touchdown to Mike Evans on the next play.
5. Justin Fields’ 335 passing yards and 132.7 passer rating against the Broncos were career highs, but stellar passing performances against bad defenses are Confederate currency in Chicago.
Mitch Trubisky’s four best passer ratings (154.6, 148.6, 131.0, 126.7, with 15 touchdowns and no interceptions) came against teams that ranked 32nd, 30th, 27th and 31st in passer rating allowed. And as a passer, Fields has shown no more inclination than Trubisky to be an elite quarterback.
6. Red Flag Dept.: Fields had a 155.7 passer rating through three quarters against the Broncos (23-of-24, 285 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions). In the fourth quarter he had a 21.0 rating (5-of-11, 50 yards, one interception).
Of the 43 quarterbacks in the past three seasons who have had a 140-plus passer rating through three quarters, Fields now has two of the three worst fourth quarters: 21.0 vs. the Broncos on Sunday and 2.8 (after a 147.0 rating through three quarters) in a 31-30 loss to the Lions in Week 10 last season (2-of-6, 13 yards, one interception).
Entering the fourth quarter, the Broncos’ defense had allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 48-of-52 passes (92.3%!) for 661 yards (12.7 per attempt), nine touchdowns and no interceptions for a perfect 158.3 rating in the previous seven quarters.
7. Quick Hits: The Bears have been outscored 66-28 in the second half in games that weren’t blowouts at halftime. … The Bears’ defense has allowed opponents to convert more than 50% of their third-down conversions for four consecutive weeks — the first time that’s happened in at least the last 30 seasons. … Russell Wilson (133.5) is the sixth consecutive quarterback with a 100-plus rating vs. the Bears. … The Bears had 10 penalties for 91 yards vs. the Broncos — they’re tied for seventh with 28 penalties this season. They had the third fewest last year (80).
8. Jim Harbaugh Watch: The former Bears quarterback is now 30-3 at Michigan over the past three seasons after the No. 2 Wolverines (5-0) routed Nebraska 45-7 in Lincoln.
9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack had a franchise-record six sacks of back-up. Aidan O’Connell and forced two fumbles in a 24-17 victory over the Raiders. Mack had just three sacks in his previous 14 games with the Chargers.
10. Bear-ometer: 3-14 — at Commanders (L); vs. Vikings (L); vs. Raiders (W); at Chargers (L); at Saints (L); vs. Panthers (W); at Lions (L); at Vikings (L); vs. Lions (L); at Browns (L); vs. Cardinals (W); vs. Falcons (L); at Packers (L).
