To put it kindly, the Denver Broncos are not getting what they bargained for with Sean Payton and Russell Wilson. To strip away any semblance of euphemism and be as blunt as possible, the Broncos have driven a dagger through their future by entrusting Payton and Wilson to turn them into a marquee team again.
We still have over two-thirds left of the 2023 season. Even with that much time remaining, I’m finding it challenging to just let things play out for the NFL’s most overhyped, over-the-hill coaching and quarterback duo. Some situations deserve time to breathe and develop, but that does not apply to these albatross 1-4 Broncos.
When a bad football team with poor leadership shows you what it is, believe it! They usually don’t lie!
As Denver tries to dig itself out of an impossible early-season hole, let’s dive into some more context about all the chaos Payton and Wilson have wrought upon the most popular football team in the Rocky Mountains. Broncos fans, a word of advice: Try not to grow too squeamish reading this. Treat it like a horror movie where you cover your eyes at climactic jump scares and tense moments.
1
A monstrous overall trade haul for six wins (so far)
There’s no sugarcoating it. The Broncos mortgaged their future for Russell Wilson in a blockbuster trade. Then, when he enjoyed the worst season of his career in 2022, and they couldn’t afford the “monthly payments” on any other quarterback, they took out a second mortgage on Sean Payton to fix him.
It’s all been an utter disaster. At a certain point, you quit while you were never ahead:
A reminder what the Broncos gave up for Russell Wilson and Sean Payton:
• three 1st round picks
• three 2nd round picks
• one 5th round pick
• 5yr, $245M ($165M guaranteed) for Wilson
• 5yr, $100M for PaytonAll to be 1-4 this year.
And just 6 wins in their last 22 games.
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) October 8, 2023
2
Denver is somehow worse with Sean Payton than Nathaniel Hackett
I don’t need to rehash the Broncos-New York Jets drama much further. I think that’s been covered. BUT Payton did talk a lot of smack about Hackett in the offseason. Now, Payton’s Broncos are 1-4 through five games, whereas Hackett’s version was actually 2-3 at this same juncture. Oh, and Hackett’s Jets (as an offensive coordinator) were the ones to solidify this disappointing mark last Sunday.
C’mon now. That’s almost too poetic:
“One of the worst coaching jobs in NFL history” just came into Denver with Zac Wilson…not Aaron Rodgers…and out gained Sean Payton & Russell Wilson by 100+ yards and sent the Broncos to 1-4. Incredible.
— Zach Bye (@byesline) October 8, 2023
3
Russell Wilson is literally having a better season than Patrick Mahomes and it doesn't matter
After his atrocious 2022 campaign, Wilson has rebounded nicely and finally found a second win at Mile High. He’s playing efficiently, generating explosive plays, and conducting a Denver offense that, for the most part, doesn’t have trouble moving the ball. Better yet, Wilson even has better statistics than his AFC West counterpart in Mahomes.
Despite that, his team still has just one win:
Russell Wilson is statistically having a better season than Patrick Mahomes in many categories:
Russell Wilson:
1,210 passing yards
11 pass TDs
2 INTs
106.1 passer rating
44.1 QBR
15 sacksPatrick Mahomes:
1,287 passing yards
10 pass TDs
4 INTs
96 passer rating
73.5 QBR
4 sacks— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) October 9, 2023
4
An offense that capitulates the longer a game goes on
Per For The Win’s Christian D’Andrea, Wilson’s passing efficiency is so spotty from quarter to quarter, making some of his gaudy, quality numbers seem a little inflated from an improved perspective:
This fundamental break relates to how Wilson and Payton both fail once the opening game script is out of their hands. Here’s Wilson’s expected points added (EPA) per play by quarter to start 2023:
- First quarter: 0.788 (best among starting quarterbacks)
- Second: 0.102 (16th)
- Third: -0.293 (29th)
- Fourth: 0.093 (18th)
If you can’t finish halves and games, you’ll never be a consistent winner in the NFL. What’s a hot start if you can’t maintain it?
5
The irrelevance of Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton
Payton says the Broncos won’t be sellers at the trade deadline on Halloween — in likely reference to some of his receivers — but that’s hard to believe. Why on Earth would Denver not move mountains (no pun or wordplay intended here) to trade Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton? Are the Broncos really using them as well as, say, a competent contender?
A former first-round pick, Jeudy’s production through five games (17 catches, 208 yards, zero touchdowns) puts him in illustrious company with Hunter Henry and Tyler Conklin. Gross. A former apparent WR1, Sutton’s production through five games (21 receptions, 229 yards, three touchdowns) has him sharing stat pages with … Jonnu Smith and Jaylen Warren? Double gross.
The Broncos are obviously wasting what talent and firepower they do have on offense. They should be selling while they still can.
6
Denver's offense as a team looks playoff-caliber and again, it doesn't matter
Okay, let’s aside the inconsistencies, caveats, and underperforming weapons.
Wilson is playing better, the Broncos are blocking better, and they’re generating more explosive plays. That is a fact. All of this translates to the 12th-best expected points added (EPA) per play. All of this, again, is washed away by an otherwise very flawed team (and defense, which we’ll get to):
7
Can't hold a lead
Even when the Broncos do play well for a half, they usually let go of the rope once the going gets tough in crunch time. Everyone knows that’s the mark of a terrible team — one that can’t finish games. Officially, Denver’s 10 straight losses after leading at halftime is the longest (woeful) streak in NFL history:
The Broncos have lost 10 straight games after having a lead at halftime (3 in 2023), the longest streak of any team in #NFL history.#BroncosCountry @NFLResearch @OptaSTATS
— Tony Holzman-Escareno (@FrontOfficeNFL) October 11, 2023
8
Can't make QBs uncomfortable
The Broncos might have 12 sacks as a team, but sacks can be a misleading indicator of defensive success. That’s because bringing down a quarterback a few times a game while they otherwise carve you up isn’t necessarily as valuable as continually breaking their “bubble.” Any rational defensive coordinator would take a higher pressure mark over a raw number of sacks any day.
So, of course, no one in the NFL is worse at generating defensive pressure right now than the Broncos:
The #Broncos, according to Pro Football Reference, are dead last in the NFL in pressures and pressure % through 5 games
26 total pressures
14.8% pressure rateThe team has an abnormal # of sacks in comparison to pressures
Likely meaning sack rate will regress… https://t.co/j56VnKtrEb
— Nick Kendell 🏔 (@NickKendellMHH) October 11, 2023
9
An atrocious scoring defense
The Broncos’ defense, overall, is so bad that it probably doesn’t even matter what the offense can accomplish. No NFL team can reasonably and consistently win if it has to score over 30 points every single week. There are just too many unpredictable variables at hand to expect any different.
That’s what makes this graphic from Up & Adams — featuring Denver’s second-worst scoring defense ever through five games — so crushing:
For additional context, only two offenses in NFL history — the 2013 Broncos and 2007 New England Patriots — averaged enough points per game to clear this defensive bar. Imagine needing your offense to score roughly 600 season points just to have a chance to win.
10
A run defense surrendering running lanes the size of semi-trucks
The root of the Broncos’ defensive issues might be their atrocious run defense. Of late, everyone (and I mean everyone) has been able to gash them by taking the air out of the ball. It’s so bad that they’ve already allowed more rushing yards in five games than celebrated defenses like the 2000 Super Bowl champion Ravens did all season:
Rushing yards given up by the 2000 Ravens: 970
Rushing yards given up by the 2023 Broncos, as of Week 5: 938
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) October 9, 2023
Furthermore, Denver is allowing 5.9 yards per carry (!) and has surrendered 43 rushing first downs (!!). Most good offenses would love to have around six yards a play, let alone achieve that goal by running and pounding the ball. The Broncos are clearly more than happy to oblige.
11
Payton and Wilson's respective contracts are rusty anchors weighing Denver down
If this makes the Broncos’ chaotic start somehow seem like even more of a catastrophe, rest assured: it’s likely only just begun.
After being rewarded with over $160 million guaranteed over five years, the Broncos can’t cut Wilson without incurring a massive dead cap penalty (read: less than $30 million) until 2027. They could, of course, move on from him before then, but, you know, they’d be eating $85 million this offseason, $49.6 million in 2025, and $31.2 million in 2026.
As for Payton, NFL coach contracts are entirely guaranteed by default. So, after this year, Denver will still owe him $80 million from a total $100 million contract. Woof and oof, all around.
A lot can change in pro football overnight. But it’s really, REALLY hard not to write off the Broncos outright for most of the rest of this decade. This is a lot of future assets and money to surrender for two guys who aren’t providing much benefit to the franchise. When it comes to Denver’s favorite sports team, everything seems impeccably grim on the Colorado Front Range.
