In the financial world, markets react to the news and trends of the day. In the world of fantasy football, those ebbs and flows show up in ever-changing average draft position (ADP) data.
Earlier this week, I looked at 10 players whose stock is up and today I’m analyzing 10 players whose stock is trending down. I’m using NFFC ADP data to get a feel for which players are on the move one way or the other. Maybe these players who are on the downturn should be avoided entirely, or perhaps now that they can be had for a lower cost in drafts, they should be targeted.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
ADP: 16.68
Taylor (ankle) returned to Indianapolis on Monday after rehabbing away from the team last week but he remains on the PUP list with September fast approaching. The 2021 rushing leader entered the 2022 season as the consensus No. 1 pick and failed to deliver on that draft capital as he limped to an RB33 finish in 11 games. Taylor, who is heading into the final year of his rookie deal, is in the midst of a contract dispute that culminated in a training camp trade request.
Head coach Shane Steichen didn’t reveal much when he spoke with reporters Tuesday about the timeline for Taylor’s return, saying: “Going forward, he's rehabbing, and I'm not going to get into specifics. Like I said last week, once he's out here, he'll be out here."
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
ADP: 29.42
Burrow (calf) was seen throwing and running before Cincinnati’s first preseason game Friday, a positive sign for the quarterback who’s been out since July 27 with a strain. Head coach Zac Taylor originally set the timeline at “several weeks.” The former No. 1 pick has played sparingly in the preseason throughout his career and is not expected to do so this year, either. Burrow’s slide has seen some skill-position players surpass him in ADP but he remains the fourth quarterback off the board after Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
Breece Hall, RB, Jets
Chris Pedota/USA Today Sports Network
ADP: 38.66
Hall (ACL) was activated from the PUP list the day after New York added Dalvin Cook to its running back room. ESPN reported that the team plans to lean on Cook as the primary ball carrier early in the season and limit Hall’s workload. Head coach Robert Saleh has said he is “very confident” Hall will be available for the season opener, which is roughly 10 months after he underwent surgery. Between the injury, Cook’s arrival and that report, Hall’s ADP could continue to plummet.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks
ADP: 46.22
Walker (groin) returned to practice over the weekend and coach Pete Carroll said Tuesday that he’ll be ready for the regular season. His backfield counterpart, second-rounder Zach Charbonnet, has already returned from a shoulder injury that was said to keep him out indefinitely and the rookie running back impressed in his preseason debut Thursday. If Walker is indeed available for Week 1, it might be worth buying the dip. However, Charbonnet’s arrival in Seattle was already a concern before Walker, who missed two games in 2022, landed on the injury report. Keep an eye on his progression in preseason.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens
ADP: 60.51
Dobbins was removed from the PUP list and returned to practice Monday. Though he was officially out with a knee injury, he made no bones about his desire for a new deal this offseason. Dobbins, who played eight games in 2022 and missed all of 2021, is set to be the lead back in Baltimore’s revamped offense under Todd Monken ahead of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Health, not ability, remains the biggest question for Dobbins, who finished as the RB23 as a rookie in 2020.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts
Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports
ADP: 64.48
Pittman’s minor slide is a bit curious considering not much has changed in Indianapolis. Yes, he has a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson, a player who dealt with completion percentage issues in college. However, Pittman turned in back-to-back top-20 wide receiver finishes with a combination of Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles under center. Now he’ll at least have some semblance of consistency considering Richardson was already named the Week 1 starter. Pittman undoubtedly disappointed in 2022, when he was drafted as a top-12 receiver, but now he’s going outside the top 30 and has an opportunity to outperform his ADP.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Eagles
ADP: 67.15
Swift looked good in Philadelphia’s preseason opener, specifically on a 22-yard run where he made a defender miss in the backfield. But the murky pecking order may be scaring managers away from Swift, who’s never played more than 14 games in a season. There was no standalone RB1 on the team’s initial depth chart and Kenneth Gainwell rested while Swift and Rashaad Penny played in the preseason. Swift is the most expensive of the Eagles’ backs and his upside may be capped by Jalen Hurts’s low passing rate to running backs and his efficiency as a rusher in the red zone.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Chiefs
ADP: 88.62
Toney’s ADP is falling at the same time Skyy Moore’s is on the rise. The former first-round pick has game-breaking ability, which he flashed in the Super Bowl with a record-setting, 65-yard punt return, but he’s had issues staying on the field. Toney suffered a meniscus tear in Kansas City’s first preseason practice and is expected to be available for the season opener. Even as he remains sidelined, Toney’s draft price is still well ahead of Moore, rookie Rashee Rice and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The injury dip is starting, but his ADP is still a bit rich due to his tantalizing upside.
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
ADP: 88.80
It’s unclear what’s behind Prescott’s recent dip. Yes, Dallas lost Dalton Schultz, one of his top targets in the offseason, but Brandin Cooks was brought in to soak up that vacated volume and both of those moves were made months ago. Head coach Mike McCarthy has also talked of a run-heavy offense, but it doesn’t seem like the Cowboys have the personnel for that on their roster at the moment. All signs point to a resurgent season for Prescott as he enters the year at full health with CeeDee Lamb, Cooks and Michael Gallup as his primary weapons. He’s a solid late-round quarterback with four top-10 finishes under his belt.
Jameson Williams, WR, Lions
ADP: 107.00
Williams, who has already dealt with leg injuries in camp, left practice with an apparent hamstring injury Wednesday, the latest blow to the former first-round pick who was already suspended for the first six games of the season for violating the league’s gambling policy. Williams only appeared in six games as a rookie and logged just two touches, both of which went 40-plus yards, a sign of the explosiveness that inspired Detroit to spend the 12th overall pick on a player who was recovering from an ACL tear.
Most leagues don’t allow suspended players to be moved to injured reserve, so Williams will be using up a roster spot until he is eligible to return Week 7.
