How do you define clutch when it comes to NBA basketball?
It’s a question that even NBA executives don’t know how to answer. But starting this year, voters around the league will have to come up with some measurements to define this word because the league announced that at the end of the season, they will begin handing out the Jerry West Trophy for the NBA Clutch Player of the Year.
Even if the idea of what it means to be a clutch basketball player feels immeasurable, someone is going to hoist the trophy at the end of this NBA campaign. So we wanted to look at who the top candidates are based on how the season has played out thus far.
For this story, we used resources from Inpredictable as well as PBPStats and NBA.com. You can learn more about Inprecictable’s Clutch Win Probability Added (clWPA) or how PBPStats defines high-leverage possessions.
1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
clWPA: 2.09
Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander currently leads the league in Inpredictable’s Clutch Win Probability Added, and it’s for good reason.
Gilgeous-Alexander is 6-for-7 (85.7 percent) on shots to tie or take the lead within the final minute of the game so far this season, and he is 4-for-5 (80.0 percent) with two 3-pointers made to either tie or to take the lead within the final second of the game.
The Thunder may have a losing record, but it would be far worse if not for Gilgeous-Alexander’s late-game heroics.
2
Jerami Grant
clWPA: 1.63
The most important highlight in his resumé to note is that Portland’s Jerami Grant (coached by Chauncey Billups, nicknamed Mr. Big Shot) has already connected on one of the NBA’s six game-winning buzzer-beaters so far this season.
But the forward is also a perfect 5-for-5 on his field goals to take the lead within the final minute of the game. Additionally, he is 5-for-8 (62.5 percent) overall on his 3-pointers in clutch minutes and he has made the second-most clutch free throws (27) as well. Grant has drawn 18 personal fouls in clutch minutes, which is tied for the most in the NBA.
Overall, the Trail Blazers are outscoring opponents by 18.1 points per 100 possessions during clutch minutes when Grant has played thus far. Grant should be considered a frontrunner for the NBA’s Clutch Player of the Year.
3
DeMar DeRozan
clWPA: 1.44
Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan was a buzzer-beating darling last season, hitting game-winners in back-to-back games. He is once again bringing that same energy to the floor for the Bulls as the NBA’s overall leader in clutch scoring (61) in 2022-23.
The five-time All-Star leads all players in total shots taken (65) that have a high impact on win probability, per Inpredictable. He is tied with Trae Young for the most attempts (13) considered most crucial to the game outcome.
He leads the league in second-chance points (11) during clutch minutes. DeRozan has also attempted the most total free throws (10) defined as crucial to the outcome of a game and he has connected on each of them.
DeRozan, however, is 0-for-2 on clutch 3-pointers and his effective field goal percentage in clutch minutes (44.6 percent) is lower than it is in normal minutes (52.4 percent). Unfortunately, the Bulls have also been outscored by 10.6 points per 100 possessions during clutch minutes when DeRozan is on the floor.
4
Kevin Durant
clWPA: 1.42
Kevin Durant is known as “Easy Money” for a reason. The Brooklyn Nets superstar is tied with Luka Doncic for the most baskets to tie or take the lead (15) within three minutes of the final buzzer.
Overall, it is clear that the two-time NBA Finals MVP is unfazed by the biggest moments. His effective field goal percentage in the clutch (62.5 percent) is nearly identical to normal minutes (62.2 percent) this season, per Inpredictable.
Most impressive, though, is that Brooklyn’s net rating when Durant is on the floor (39.5) during clutch minutes is shockingly high.
5
Anfernee Simons
clWPA: 1.44
Portland’s Anfernee Simons leads the league in clutch 3-pointers made (7) so far this season. He also leads the league in shots made (11) to either tie or to take the lead within the final two minutes of the game.
His teammates (Grant and Josh Hart) have hit the game-winners for the Blazers this season, but Simons has looked great when the game is on the line as well.
6
Bam Adebayo
clWPA: 1.18
Everyone would be very surprised if the first-ever Clutch Player of the Year goes to a defensive-oriented player. But defense also matters during clutch minutes, and that’s where Adebayo has especially shined. Adebayo leads the league in steals (5) and defensive rebounds (13) during moments defined as high leverage or very high leverage, per PBPStats.
On the offensive end of the floor, meanwhile, the big man ranks among the top 5 in assists (5) during these minutes as well. He is 6-for-8 (75.0 percent) to tie or take the lead within the final two minutes of the game. According to Inpredictable, the big man is also shooting better on free throws during clutch minutes (93.3 percent) than he is during regular minutes (79.4 percent).
Adebayo has the highest overall plus-minus (40) in such minutes, and even if he isn’t hitting buzzer-beaters, he is stepping up when the game matters most.
7
Stephen Curry
clWPA: 1.36
Golden State’s Stephen Curry is assuredly one of the reasons why this trophy exists. His usage rate spikes to an unreal 41.8 percent during clutch minutes, and it’s not even a question of whether or not Curry is getting the ball if the Warriors are trailing. The only question is if the opponents can do anything to slow him down if he has a hot hand.
8
Damian Lillard
clWPA: 1.12
Damian Lillard has some of the most iconic game-winning moments in recent memory, and the final minutes of the game are known as “Dame Time” for a reason.
Lillard has missed several games due to injury so far this season, yet still manages to lead all NBA players in 3-pointers made to tie or take the lead (6) within three minutes of the final buzzer.
Portland’s net rating when Lillard is on the court during clutch minutes (28.6) proves exactly why the six-time All-Star is known as one of the most trusted players in the league when the game is on the line.
9
AJ Griffin
clWPA: 1.00
Atlanta’s AJ Griffin is the first NBA player to hit multiple game-winning buzzer-beaters in his rookie season since Toni Kukoc did as much in 1993-94. Kukoc was 25 during his first campaign in the NBA while Griffin is still only 19 years old.
10
Zion Williamson
clWPA: 1.38
Zion Williamson may not have a traditional resumé for a clutch player, however, this isn’t a traditional award. Let’s make up the rules.
New Orleans is outscoring opponents by 0.86 points per minute when Williamson is on the court during clutch minutes. Among the 126 players who have logged at least 30 minutes in the clutch, that ranks as the second-best in the league.
The most clutch players are the ones who contribute to winning the most, and Williamson is doing exactly that for the Pelicans, who have the best record in the Western Conference.
