LONDON — Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s success in securing a new settlement for Northern Ireland with the European Union has killed off any lingering prospects of a return to U.K. power by Boris Johnson, Conservatives said.
In the run-up to Sunak’s announcement of the deal on Monday, Johnson had refused to back his efforts, instead pointing to legislation he proposed as prime minister as the “best way forward” to resolve the post-Brexit standoff. But so far, Sunak’s agreement has been well-received by Tory members of Parliament, including some ardent Brexiteers.
Now, the former premier’s stock has never been lower in the parliamentary party, Conservative MPs said Wednesday. One joked it was time to sell stocks in Johnson, while another said any comeback was now dead in the water. The MPs requested anonymity talking about internal party dynamics.
It’s a remarkable reversal in Johnson’s fortunes. Less than 18 months ago, his backers were speculating about a decade in power. In October, just seven weeks after leaving office, he secured the nominations of 110 Tory MPs in the race to succeed Liz Truss, enough to put him in a run-off against Sunak if he’d decided to continue.
Even last week, his backers were still trying to talk up the possibility of the former premier swooping in to lead the ruling party into the next general election if the Tories perform badly at local polls in May.
Supporters of Johnson have pointed to his personal appeal and the fact he delivered the party an 80-seat majority in 2019 as reasons to consider reinstating him as the Tories slide toward electoral defeat. Sunak must call a vote by January 2025 at the latest, and his party trails Labour by more than 20 points in most recent polls.
But speculation around a comeback has all but vanished in the wake of the deal on trading arrangements announced Monday by Sunak alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
One minister said Johnson could have commanded some support from the pro-Brexit wing of the Tories had he come to Parliament on Monday when the premier set out his plans to the House of Commons. Johnson could have owned the moment and claim he paved the way for the deal. Instead he skulked away, the minister said.
An ally of Johnson said he was still making up his mind how to respond to the deal.
A second minister said if Johnson rejected Sunak’s deal, he would have to align himself with a minority grouping of Conservative MPs in the European Research Group who are currently considering whether to back the prime minister. Those MPs no longer reflect anything like mainstream thinking in the party, the minister said, so Johnson would be making a mistake to do so.
Johnson works best when the battalions are massed for him, the minister said. The ERG is no longer the battalion it once was at the height of the Parliamentary Brexit battles; more like the army catering corps, the minister joked.
Sunak ditched Johnson’s flagship bill which would have unilaterally ripped up parts of the current Brexit arrangements with the EU and took a more emollient approach to negotiations.
One MP said it showed the era of Donald Trump-style bombastic populism was over. Sunak’s measured approach was a reminder of what statecraft should be, the Tory said, predicting Sunak would be safe in post until the general election.
Johnson’s supporters haven’t given up, however. Some predict he may lead the party again if Sunak loses the election to Labour.
The Johnson ally said the former premier still commands significant support in the parliamentary party especially as he delivered on his manifesto pledge of getting Brexit done. The debates about the EU divorce are not over yet and Sunak must deliver on reducing inflation, equalizing opportunities nationwide and halting illegal immigration if he is to maintain the support of his MPs, the ally said.
(With assistance from Ellen Milligan.)
