October may bring ghosts and ghouls alive, but Bitcoin bulls’ hoping for “Uptober” are finding that even the typically positive month can’t resurrect the token’s price.
The largest digital asset is down roughly 1% this month, which, were it to close at that level, would mark its first down October since 2018, coinciding with the last time it was mired in a crypto winter. At this time last year, Bitcoin had gained 40%, 30% the year before that and 12% the one prior.
This year’s tepid moves prompted analysts at Genesis, among others, to wonder: “Wen Uptober?” That’s the name crypto fans have bequeathed the month for typically being positive. “Wen” is their version of “when” and is used in memes and on social media.
“When I think about Uptober, I’m usually looking for a bit more than a flattish green candle,” said Quantum Economics Founder and Chief Executive Officer Mati Greenspan. “If Bitcoin is to fulfill the meme this month, it better start moving soon.”
Coming into the month, die-hards hung their hopes on October being a good one for the token, which has only seen three positive months so far this year. And history’s been on their side: Bitcoin tends to rise roughly 25% during the month, and has since 2015 advanced more than 85% during it, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Bitcoin’s been stuck in a tight range in recent weeks, with the coin largely hovering around $20,000. On Monday, it traded around $19,300. Even big announcements, like BlackRock Inc.’s recent partnership with crypto platform Coinbase Global Inc., have failed to shake the asset class from its stupor.
Its lack of swings, in contrast to its usual turbulent reputation, has analysts pointing out that the coin, along with some others, has become less volatile in that time frame. The average spread between the past month’s peak and trough across the 10 largest digital assets has only been around 23%, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group. Since late 2017, no other period has seen this level of serenity. Since the start of 2020, in fact, the average reading was in a range of over 80%, the researcher said.
“Given that we expect a rather hawkish Fed meeting in November, I think it’s not likely we’ll get an Uptober,” said Max Gokhman, chief investment officer for AlphaTrAI. “I think a lot of Bitcoin holders will be asking ‘Why-tober?’”
The coin could still finish October up or down 5% from where it started, he said, adding that he expects the token will likely stick to the range it’s traded in for the past several months.
Wilfred Daye, chief executive officer of Securitize Capital, a digital-asset management firm, says the crypto market is being swayed by macro forces, including what the Federal Reserve has been doing in regards to interest rates. That, and the fact that Bitcoin became positively correlated with tech stocks during the Covid years is what’s largely swaying prices currently.
“We were in a macro bull market since 2012 -- QE worked in BTC’s favor,” he said. “Macro risk-off sentiment puts pressure on BTC.”
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
