Close to 300,000 lives could be saved across Europe by February if countries impose tighter restrictions, but national lockdowns should be a “very last resort”, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
Speaking at a weekly briefing Dr Hans Kluge, director of WHO Europe, urged countries across the continent to swiftly “step up” to stem rising infections, warning that “the pandemic won’t reverse its course on its own”.
In the last week more than 700,000 cases have been confirmed in Europe – the highest figure since the pandemic began – and Dr Kluge said projections from “reliable epidemiological models” are “not optimistic”.
“These models indicate that prolonged relaxing policies could propel – by January 2021 – daily mortality at levels four to five times higher than what we recorded in April,” he said.
But Dr Kluge added that hundreds of thousands of lives could be saved if swift action is taken now, according to modelling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
“With measures such as generalised and systematic mask wearing in public and private places, and strict control on social gatherings, models estimate that 281,000 deaths could be saved in six months in the whole WHO European region,” he said.
“The message to governments is: don't hold back with relatively small actions to avoid the painful damaging actions we saw in the first round,” he added, suggesting that the virus has shown it is “merciless” in the face of delayed action, disinformation and denial.
Yet Dr Kluge stopped short of calling for a return to national lockdowns due to the “collateral damage”. While they were the “default option” in March because countries were caught off guard, governments should now have “proportionate, targeted and time limited” measures at their disposal.
“So lockdowns are a very last resort,” he said. “Any nationwide tightening of decisions must consider both the direct risks, and the collateral damage associated with the pandemic.”
The WHO director also appeared apprehensive about the idea of a “circuit breaker” – a temporary national lockdown where household mixing is banned and non essential businesses closed.
The idea has gathered momentum in the UK this week, following Keir Starmer's suggestion that it was the only way to buy us time, break chains of transmission and “avoid sleepwalking into a long and bleak winter”.
According to modelling presented to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) in late September, such a policy could reset the pandemic clock by about a month, resulting in a 30 to 50 per cent drop in new cases.
But asked about the measures, Dr Hans Kluge was weary.
“If it is implemented, the time has to be taken to further develop the basics… for example the test, track, trace, isolate,” he said.
“But maybe the most important point is that it's not a panacea. It cannot be taken in isolation. Because if the people suffer hardship because of that measure and then it is lifted, then the people do not adhere to the basic public health measures, then the effect will wane very quickly.
“So it has to be seen within a comprehensive approach. If it is implemented, we definitely need to have to look at the dashboard of the potential collateral damages, to protect the mental health of the people, the economic health, the students, etc.”
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