NO PART OF the world matters more to America’s interests than Asia, and no part stands to lose so much from an American retreat: ever since its victory over Japan in the second world war, the United States has underwritten not just Asia’s security but also its remarkable prosperity, based on trade and relatively open markets. America’s standing in the region ought, therefore, to be high. Yet four years of Donald Trump have damaged it—and prompted some Asians to ask how sensible it is to rely on America to uphold the international order in their region.
Mr Trump’s people understood one big thing: that authoritarian China poses a direct challenge not only to American supremacy in the western Pacific but also to the economic order that it has underpinned. The good news is, given China’s pushiness in the South China Sea, its nibbling away at India’s territory in the Himalayas, its belligerence towards Taiwan, its repression in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, its reluctance to open its own market and its habit of attaching strings to development aid, none of China’s neighbours wants it to call all the military and economic shots. The bad news is, even with a new American administration in place, it will be difficult to persuade those neighbours to do anything that will rock the boat, given China’s growing clout and America’s diminished standing. In fact, the trick for President Joe Biden will be to restore faith in America without asking Asian countries to take its side openly against China.
This is where the Trump administration’s approach fell flat. In private Asian leaders welcomed its frequent “freedom of navigation” operations as a way of rebuffing China’s attempts to turn the South China Sea into its own lake. But they felt ignored or—worse—exploited by America in its arguments with China. Mr Trump trash-talked allies, especially South Korea and Japan, and threatened to withdraw American troops from their soil if the pair did not pay a lot more towards the costs of deployment. Some in Taiwan worried that Mr Trump’s main interest in their country was as a means to poke China in the eye. When Mike Pompeo, his secretary of state, did remember the medium powers of South-East Asia, it was to demand that they should sign up to the administration’s ideological campaign to demonise “Communist China”. For governments in South-East Asia, which have long tried to safeguard their autonomy by hedging and balancing between great powers, openly taking sides is anathema. Mr Pompeo came across as smashing up the bar before closing time.
What is more, America’s interest in Asian security came alongside an assault on the free-market principles that it did so much to instil and that have so benefited the region. On his fourth day in office, with bipartisan support, Mr Trump pulled America out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-country free-trade deal. China pushed ahead with a different pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which it and 14 other Asian countries signed in November. The symbolism in terms of economic leadership could scarcely be starker.
Mr Biden’s team promises to be more tactful. It is stuffed with knowledgeable Asia hands, of the sort his predecessor despised (see article). Just sending experts or political heavyweights as ambassadors instead of party donors hoping for a junket would help; so would attending tedious ASEAN talking-shops at which China scores an easy win because the United States does not show up.
But even a more engaged America will struggle to place itself back at the heart of Asian discussions on supply chains, technology standards and investment regimes. Mr Biden has made it clear he is not in a rush to sign any trade deals at all, much less re-embrace TPP. What is more, there are bound to be other frictions with Asian countries. The new president, understandably, wants human rights at the heart of his foreign policy, and he is right to condemn China for its egregious abuses. But the records of some of America’s friends are not much better, and their governments are prickly about criticism.
In other words, America, like China, is not the perfect ally in the eyes of many Asian countries. The countries of the region have no choice but to deal with both. Asians have grown used to American engagement as a counterweight to an overweening China, but fear being dragged into a fight. It would be better if Asian countries wanted to work with America in its own right, because they are drawn to American innovation, economic vitality, openness and moral coherence. America should aspire to be more than a security hedge against China. Asia would be a safer and more prosperous place for it. ■
This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "Free not to choose"
