It was a case of third time not lucky for the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), and its frontman Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha. The setback suffered by the PPRP in the by-election on Sunday for Bangkok's Constituency 9 covering Laksi and parts of Chatuchak district was its third defeat in a row.
The ruling party, led by Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, lost two by-elections in the southern provinces of Chumphon and Songkhla to its coalition partner the Democrat Party earlier last month.
The latest defeat seems to have hurt the PPRP the most, however. Not only was the ruling party crushed by the opposition Pheu Thai, but it also lost by a wide margin.
The winner, Surachart Thienthong, claimed a landslide victory with more than 29,000 votes while the PPRP's Saralrasmi Jenjaka, wife of the disqualified former MP Sira Jenjaka, managed only 7,906 votes, about 9% of the 87,177 people who cast their ballots.
That the top two candidates Mr Surachart and the Move Forward Party's Karunpol Thiansuwan are from the opposition, together winning almost 50,000 votes, while the candidates associated with the government namely the PPRP, Kla and Thai Pakdee receiving some 33,900 votes altogether, seems to suggest a desire for change.
It is true that the appeal of individual candidates must have played a role in the by-election. Still, the PPRP's consecutive losses could carry consequences as they came on top of high-profile bickering within the party which saw its former secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow leaving with 20 other MPs.
The Thamanat split, which was centred around his challenging the suitability of Gen Prayut as premier, not only left the PPRP with fewer MPs but also has deepened doubts over whether Gen Prayut will remain an asset should a new election be called.
That is why the Bangkok by-election defeat may look bad for the PPRP and could be deadly for the PM.
Why did the PPRP lose? When it comes to political overtones, many people would argue that the PPRP's leader Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit is losing his grip both on the party and out there on the campaign trail.
Internally, fighting has escalated among power groups.
Some factions remain satisfied under the "big brother". Others, however, appear eager to see power change hands and possibly for PM Gen Prayut to take control of the party himself.
The consecutive defeats offer a perfect excuse for the unsatisfied factions to attack Gen Prawit and press for a party leadership change. The situation would create an awkward dilemma for PM Gen Prayut.
In a way, Gen Prawit and his supporters could defend themselves by saying that the Bangkok by-election results are as damning for Gen Prawit as they are against the government's performance and the prospect of PM Gen Prayut returning for another term.
After all, supporting Gen Prayut is the key message that the PPRP used as it campaigned for votes ahead of Sunday's by-election.
If Gen Prayut does not like to hear that he is a liability, and he still believes that the PPRP is the best vehicle for him to return as prime minister but its appeal to voters was compromised by Gen Prawit, then his natural course of action would be to remove the big brother and show he is on top of the situation by taking the helm of the party himself.
It would be a tough choice. Not only would the PM, who has so often been seen struggling with anger management issues, have to deal with constant power-wrangling among groups within the party but he would have to carry the party banner when it seems past its prime.
Fatigue has definitely set in after his almost eight years in office. Also, the Bangkok by-election results clearly show a surge in the opposition's popularity, which underlines the dissatisfaction with Gen Prayut's government.
If the PM decides to take charge of the PPRP, he will face an uphill task leading the party to victory at the next election.
Internally, the party is fractious. A sense of belligerence remains even after the departure of Capt Thamanat and his supporters. Capt Thamanat sending a not-so-cryptic message following the by-election saying "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" must have added fuel to the fire within his former party.
Some PPRP MPs may be mulling whether the fragmented party still has a chance of winning. Switching camps is always possible, complete with endless bargaining.
The scenario does not look like one that the notoriously short-fused PM would excel in.
Keeping things as they are and Gen Prawit as the party's leader does not look promising for Gen Prayut either.
Three consecutive losses do not spark confidence. Worse, there will be people who say the losses were caused by his government's performance. The road ahead looks paved with difficulties for the PM.
Atiya Achakulwisut is a Bangkok Post columnist.
