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APARNA NARAYANAN

EV Stocks: Why Toyota And This 'Top Pick' Tesla Rival Are Surging

In another strong month for China EV sales, BYD exceeded 300,000 monthly deliveries in October for the first time.

The Chinese electric-vehicle and battery giant on Wednesday also reported growing overseas deliveries in October, stepping up its challenge to Tesla. Among Chinese EV startups chasing both BYD and Tesla, Li Auto and XPeng set monthly delivery records, with XPeng seeing the biggest month-over-month gain. Nio grew October deliveries but lagged startup rivals, despite several new and refreshed models.

XPeng stock jumped Wednesday, a day after one Wall Street firm called it a top pick in the EV space. Toyota stock surged on strong earnings and EV sales.

Toyota Earnings, EV Sales

On Wednesday, Japan's Toyota Motor hiked its full-year operating profit forecast by 50% after posting record earnings for its fiscal second quarter. It cited strong global demand for hybrid electric vehicles and a weaker yen.

On top of that, Toyota's North America unit said U.S. "electrified vehicle" sales totaled 61,775 in October, up 46% year over year and making up nearly a third of total sales for the month. Its overall U.S. sales grew 4.5% in October to 195,799 vehicles. Toyota mostly sells hybrid electric vehicles, though it's expanding in battery electric vehicles.

U.S.-listed shares of Toyota Motor stock popped 6.1% to 185.78 Wednesday. The relative strength line is hitting highs on the weekly MarketSmith chart, a positive sign.

TM stock gapped above the 50-day line, flashing an aggressive entry. Toyota has a 195.65 official base buy point.

BYD Sales

In October, BYD sold 301,833 battery electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles, up 5% from September. More than half of the October tally was made up of battery electric vehicles (also known as BEVs, or "pure" electric vehicles).

That marked the first time the EV giant has surpassed the 300,000-unit monthly sales benchmark. It also marked the sixth consecutive month of record deliveries.

BYD aims to sell at least 3 million electric vehicles this year. To reach its target, the Tesla archrival in China will have to sell about 310,000 EVs in each of the next two months. On Wednesday, BYD announced discounts on a number of models, aiming for that goal.

In Q3, BYD sold 431,603 battery electric vehicles, just below Tesla's 435,059 deliveries.

The Warren Buffett-backed Chinese EV maker is expected to outpace Tesla in BEV sales during the current fourth quarter.

Most of BYD's EV sales still come from China, but it is expanding rapidly overseas. In October, BYD sold a record 30,521 EVs in foreign markets, up 9% from September.

Shares of BYD and Tesla stock both fell Wednesday. Both EV giants have undercut their 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

On Tuesday, BYD began presales of the Song L, a crossover version of its top-selling electric model. On Monday, BYD reported record profits and expanding margins for Q3.

China's BYD is backed by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathway, which further trimmed its position in the EV giant in late October.

Industry data will show Tesla China's October exports and local sales later this month. Tesla China sales were soft in September. Tesla started deliveries of its updated Model 3 in late October.

On Monday, Japan's Panasonic slashed its full-year operating profit outlook for its EV battery unit by 15%, blaming tepid demand for Tesla electric vehicles.

Li Auto Sales

Li Auto sold 40,422 electric vehicles in October, the first time monthly deliveries topped the 40,000-unit mark. Sales grew 12.1% from September's 36,060.

The startup touted "steady growth for 10 consecutive months." Li said it has led sales of premium SUVs priced above RMB 300,000 (almost $50,000) for six straight months.

Cumulative deliveries of the L7, Li L8, and Li L9 — all new, premium, hybrid-electric SUVs — have each surpassed 100,000, the company said.

The startup leader is set to report Q3 earnings before the U.S. market opens on Nov. 9.

Its first all-electric vehicle, the Mega, is in the works. The vehicle will be priced above RMB 500,000 and is targeted toward multigenerational households, Li said.

Shares were basically unchanged on Wednesday. Li Auto stock sank 3.7% on Tuesday.

XPeng Sales

Tesla rival XPeng sold 20,002 vehicles in October, a new monthly record. Deliveries jumped nearly 31% vs. September's 15,310.

The startup reported "robust growth momentum for the ninth consecutive month."

The new G6 SUV, a Model Y challenger, had 8,741 deliveries, accounting for 43.7% of total October sales. It had made up more than half of September sales.

The startup reports Q3 earnings on Nov. 15, before the U.S. market opens.

XPeng stock leapt 5.4% to 15.50 Wednesday. Shares retreated 2.9% on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank analysts named XPeng stock a "top pick" given a "compelling growth and margin improvement road map." They also cited its recent partnerships with Volkswagen and Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi.

Nio Sales

Nio sold 16,074 electric vehicles in October, up 2.8% vs. September. The deliveries included 11,086 electric SUVs and 4,988 electric sedans, Nio said.

The EV startup did not breakout sales by model. Nio's vastly expanded lineup of eight new or totally overhauled models includes the ES6 SUV, its traditional top seller.

Nio stock edged higher Wednesday after sliding 3.1% on Tuesday. The Tesla rival has not yet announced an earnings date.

China EV Sales Continue To Rise

In October, retail sales of passenger new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China are expected to reach around 750,000 units, up 0.9% from record high levels in September, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) estimates.

The Chinese market for electric vehicles is likely to maintain strong growth momentum in the final quarter of 2023, industry experts say. New product launches and carmaker discounts are fueling sales.

The CPCA expects 8.5 million EVs to be sold for the full year, led by Tesla rival BYD. That would be up about 31% from 6.5 million in 2022.

But growth is slowing. China EV sales nearly doubled in 2022, after more than doubling in 2021.

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