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J. Brady McCollough

NCAA Tournament bracket picks: J. Brady McCollough’s prediction for every game

LOS ANGELES — UCLA and USC won’t be making the trip to Houston, but the Final Four won’t be short on intrigue. Can the hometown Cougars cut down the nets for the first time in school history? Can Alabama and the murder investigation hovering over this year’s tournament be removed from the spotlight? Will two Big East squads spoil the No. 1 seeds’ party before that fateful Monday night?

Check out national college writer J. Brady McCollough‘s NCAA Tournament picks.

All games can been seen on March Madness Live or on the March Madness Live app. All times are Pacific.

First Four

No. 16 Southeast Missouri State vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

Tuesday, 3:40 p.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: Texas A&M-CC by 4.

Pick: Southeast Missouri State has a great story, making its first appearance since 2000. But Texas A&M-Corpus Christi was in this exact game last year. That experience will deliver.

— Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 64, Southeast Missouri State 57

(Note: Tuesday's result was Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 75, Southeast Missouri State 71)

No. 11 Pittsburgh vs. No. 11 Mississippi State

Tuesday, 6:10 p.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: Mississippi State by 2.5.

Pick: The Panthers play great offense, while the Bulldogs play great defense. The metrics like Mississippi State more as a whole.

— Mississippi State 67, Pitt 62

(Note: Tuesday's result was Pitt 60, Mississippi State 59)

No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson vs. No. 16 Texas Southern

Wednesday, 3:40 p.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: Texas Southern by 2.

Pick: Fairleigh Dickinson only made this tournament because Merrimack isn’t allowed in because it’s transitioning to Division I. Texas Southern is one of the most consistent low-major programs around.

— Texas Southern 59, Fairleigh Dickinson 55

No. 11 Nevada vs. No. 11 Arizona State

Wednesday, 6:10 p.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: Arizona State by 2.

Pick: Former UCLA coach Steve Alford is coaching Nevada against Arizona State’s Bobby Hurley in a matchup of former NCAA Tournament stars. The Sun Devils seem charmed this season.

— Arizona State 70, Nevada 69

WEST REGION

First round

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Howard

Thursday, 11 a.m.

TV: TBS

Line: Kansas by 21

Pick: The Jayhawks won’t be fazed by the pressure of defending their national championship.

— Kansas 88, Howard 61

No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Illinois

Thursday, 1:30 p.m.

TV: TBS

Line: Arkansas by 2.5.

Pick: This is an intriguing matchup of teams that could give Kansas a nervous Saturday. Arkansas is the pick because of its talent at guard, where Illinois is lacking.

— Arkansas 75, Illinois 71

No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 Virginia Commonwealth

Friday, 11 a.m.

TV: TBS

Line: Saint Mary’s by 4.

Pick: VCU will try to speed up the Gaels with its trademark pressure defense, but Saint Mary’s has seen it all and is tournament tested.

— Saint Mary’s 63, VCU 56

No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 13 Iona

Friday, 1:30 p.m.

TV: TBS

Line: UConn by 9.

Pick: Rick Pitino against a Hurley brother in March? That’s delicious. Iona is certainly capable beyond the Pitino pedigree, but Dan Hurley’s Huskies just have too much quality depth.

— Connecticut 68, Iona 62

No. 6 Texas Christian vs. No. 11 Arizona State

Friday, 7:05 p.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: N/A

Pick: TCU nearly knocked off Arizona in the second round last season and returns all the key pieces from that team. The Horned Frogs won’t back down from Arizona State.

— TCU 78, Arizona State 65

No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon

Friday, 4:35 p.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: Gonzaga by 15.5.

Pick: The Bulldogs may not have a No. 1 seed this year, but they still have the No. 1 offense in the country according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings.

— Gonzaga 89, Grand Canyon 68

No. 7 Northwestern vs. No. 10 Boise State

Thursday, 4:35 p.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: Northwestern by 1.5.

Pick: The Wildcats and Broncos are similar teams, defined by their defensive guile. This one will be a grind to the wire.

— Boise State 62, Northwestern 60

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 UNC-Asheville

Thursday, 7:05 p.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: UCLA by 18.

Pick: KenPom’s efficiency metrics view UNC-Asheville as the luckiest team in the country this year. The luck will run out against the experienced Bruins.

— UCLA 76, UNC-Asheville 61

Second round

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 8 Arkansas

Saturday

Pick: We can only hope this one is as good as when these schools met in the Liberty Bowl, a 55-53 Arkansas win. Expect a similar track meet here, but a different winner.

— Kansas 77, Arkansas 73

No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s

Sunday

Pick: In a battle of two KenPom darlings — both teams have offense and defense in the nation’s top 40 — Connecticut will simply have too much firepower.

— Connecticut 65, Saint Mary’s 60

No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 6 TCU

Sunday

Pick: The Zags have had such a massive target on their backs in recent years, which has made it tough on them in March. They can play with a freer mind this year, and Drew Timme will lead them to the Sweet 16.

— Gonzaga 70, TCU 62

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 10 Boise State

Saturday

Pick: With one more game under their belts to figure out how to play without Jaylen Clark, the Bruins will hit their stride in this one. Amari Bailey will give UCLA a big boost.

— UCLA 66, Boise State 53

Sweet 16

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 Connecticut

Thursday, March 23, Las Vegas

Pick: The Jayhawks had expected all season to be playing the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight in Kansas City. Vegas won’t be nearly as kind, thanks to a Connecticut team that has just as many weapons as the defending champs.

— Connecticut 64, Kansas 62

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 Gonzaga

Thursday, March 23, Las Vegas

Pick: The Bruins absolutely need a healthy Adem Bona to have a chance of slowing down Drew Timme inside. UCLA will get its revenge for its 2021 Final Four heartbreak at the hands of the Zags.

— UCLA 63, Gonzaga 60

Elite Eight

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 4 Connecticut

Saturday, March 25, Las Vegas

Pick: The Bruins will feel the loss of Jaylen Clark the most against Connecticut’s backcourt trio of Tristen Newton, Jordan Hawkins and Andre Jackson Jr. It’s too much on the shoulders of Tyger Campbell this time.

— Connecticut 71, UCLA 67

MIDWEST REGION

First round

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky

Thursday, 6:20 p.m.

TV: TNT

Line: Houston by 19.5

Pick: The Cougars have a chance to play for a national championship in their city, and their defense is too good to squander it this early.

— Houston 74, Northern Kentucky 55

No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn

Thursday, 3:50 p.m.

TV: TNT

Line: Auburn by 1.

Pick: Both of these teams have been uneven down the stretch, so it’s anybody’s guess which one shows up. Auburn will have the best guard on the floor in Wendell Green Jr., plus the game’s in Birmingham.

— Auburn 74, Iowa 69

No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Drake

Friday, 4:25 p.m.

TV: TBS

Line: Miami by 2.5

Pick: The Hurricanes will be tested if they don’t have big man Norchad Omier because of an ankle injury. The uncertainty makes Drake the pick in a classic 12-over-5 upset.

— Drake 66, Miami 63

No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Kent State

Friday, 6:55 p.m.

TV: TBS

Line: Indiana by 4.

Pick: In one of the last games of the first round, the Golden Flashes will pull one of the biggest upsets of the weekend. But it shouldn’t be. The Hoosiers are a flawed four seed.

— Kent State 69, Indiana 66

No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Mississippi State

Friday, 12:10 p.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: N/A

Pick: Two of the top defensive squads in the country will make this one borderline unwatchable at times. The Cyclones have an extra level of toughness.

— Iowa State 58, Mississippi State 52

No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State

Friday, 9:40 a.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: Xavier by 11.5.

Pick: Kennesaw State went 1-28 during the 2019-20 season and now has a shot to be a Cinderella. The Owls’ magical run will end, though, against a fast-paced Xavier team.

— Xavier 80, Kennesaw State 64

No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Penn State

Thursday, 6:55 p.m.

TV: TBS

Line: Texas A&M by 3.5.

Pick: The Nittany Lions shoot lots of 3s and make just enough of them most nights. They also have the best player on the floor in do-everything guard Jalen Pickett.

— Penn State 64, Texas A&M 63

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Colgate

Thursday, 4:25 p.m.

TV: TBS

Line: Texas by 13.5.

Pick: The Longhorns proved with two recent wins over Kansas that they are a real Final Four threat under interim head coach Rodney Terry.

— Texas 75, Colgate 58

Second round

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 9 Auburn

Saturday

Pick: Houston could have a home-court advantage in the Final Four, but the Cougars will have to win in a road environment to make the Sweet 16 with this one in Birmingham. They’ll rise to that challenge — barely.

— Houston 67, Auburn 63

No. 12 Drake vs. No. 13 Kent State

Sunday

Pick: This is fun. At least one Cinderella will make the second weekend. Drake sharp-shooter Tucker DeVries will send the Bulldogs to the Sweet 16.

— Drake 70, Kent State 66

No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 6 Iowa State

Sunday

Pick: Classic tempo battle here. Xavier wants to be the hare, Iowa State wants to be the tortoise. The Musketeers have just a little bit too much scoring depth to be held down.

— Xavier 64, Iowa State 61

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 10 Penn State

Saturday

Pick: This sounds more like a Cotton Bowl than a battle for a Sweet 16 spot, but these hoopers are legit. Marcus Carr against Jalen Pickett will be a blast. The Horns’ defense will be able to get the stops they need throughout.

— Texas 71, Penn State 60

Sweet 16

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 12 Drake

Friday, March 24, Kansas City

Pick: By this time, Marcus Sasser’s groin will be all healed up, and he’ll help the Cougars run right past the Missouri Valley champs.

— Houston 74, Drake 58

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 3 Xavier

Friday, March 24, Kansas City

Pick: The Longhorns are playing with an edge that only comes with trying to get your interim head coach the full-time job. They play much better defense than Xavier and will make their first Elite Eight in 15 years.

— Texas 72, Xavier 67

Elite Eight

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 2 Texas

Sunday, March 26, Kansas City

Pick: The winner gets a home-court advantage in the Final Four. Houston’s program has been knocking on the door and feels like it’s been building toward this moment. That it comes against Bevo makes it even richer.

— Houston 59, Texas 54

SOUTH REGION

First round

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

Thursday, 11:45 a.m.

TV: CBS

Line: N/A

Pick: Alabama has been blowing out overmatched teams all year. The Crimson Tide will show no mercy.

— Alabama 104, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 59

No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 West Virginia

Thursday, 9:15 a.m.

TV: CBS

Line: West Virginia by 2.

Pick: The Big 12 got so much respect as a league that seven-win West Virginia got into the tournament. The Mountaineers will prove that the committee’s read was right.

— West Virginia 66, Maryland 61

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 Charleston

Thursday, 12:10 p.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: San Diego State by 5.

Pick: The Aztecs’ reward for having a great year and winning the Mountain West? A trip across the country to Orlando to play a potential Cinderella with a 31-3 record. San Diego State’s defense will help it survive.

— San Diego State 62, Charleston 58

No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Furman

Thursday, 9:40 a.m.

TV: TruTV

Line: Virginia by 5.5.

Pick: The Cavaliers, even after winning the 2019 national title, will never escape their distinction as the only No. 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed. They’ll be a popular upset pick this week, but Tony Bennett’s team will find a way.

— Virginia 66, Furman 59

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 N.C. State

Friday, 1 p.m.

TV: TNT

Line: Creighton by 5.5.

Pick: The Bluejays have a deep, experienced roster that plays well together. N.C. State is too dependent on one-on-one basketball to prevail.

— Creighton 73, N.C. State 60

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara

Friday, 10:30 a.m.

TV: TNT

Line: Baylor by 10.5.

Pick: There’s a window for the Gauchos to pull an upset if Baylor’s guards are cold from the field. But after losing in the second round last year, the Bears will be dialed in.

— Baylor 72, UC Santa Barbara 63

No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Utah State

Thursday, 10:40 a.m.

TV: TNT

Line: Utah State by 1.5.

Pick: The Aggies and Tigers rank in KenPom’s top 15 for offensive efficiency, so this should be a fun one to watch. Utah State is less of an eye sore on defense.

— Utah State 76, Missouri 75

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Princeton

Thursday, 1:10 p.m.

TV: TNT

Line: Arizona by 14.5.

Pick: Princeton will try to muddy this one up and may succeed early, but Arizona is too explosive to stay grounded for long.

— Arizona 88, Princeton 65

Second round

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 9 West Virginia

Saturday

Pick: The Mountaineers will try to punch Alabama in the mouth. They’re the type of team that could scare the No. 1 overall seed, but with this game in Birmingham, the Crimson Tide will roll to the Sweet 16.

— Alabama 77, West Virginia 66

No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 5 San Diego State

Saturday

Pick: Brian Dutcher has kept Steve Fisher’s San Diego State program playing at a high level. Finally, the Aztecs will break through in the tournament, making their first Sweet 16 since 2014.

— San Diego State 58, Virginia 56

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 6 Creighton

Sunday

Pick: This should be one of the best games of the second round, pitting Baylor guards Adam Flagler and Keyonte George against Creighton’s Ryan Nembhard and Trey Alexander. The Bluejays have the better bigs.

— Creighton 72, Baylor 69

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 10 Utah State

Saturday

Pick: The Wildcats will be too much to handle on the inside with the dynamic duo of Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo.

— Arizona 73, Utah State 56

Sweet 16

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 5 San Diego State

Friday, March 24, Louisville

Pick: This one is going to be ugly. There just isn’t much San Diego State can do better than Alabama for 40 minutes.

— Alabama 83, San Diego State 57

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 6 Creighton

Friday, March 24, Louisville

Pick: The Wildcats have lived with the sting of losing in the Sweet 16 as a No. 1 seed for a year. Despite their motivation, Creighton will keep Arizona out of the Elite Eight yet again.

— Creighton 68, Arizona 67

Elite Eight

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 6 Creighton

Sunday, March 26, Louisville

Pick: The Bluejays will have the nation rooting them on against the Crimson Tide, who will be feeling the pressure more than at any point in the tournament. But Alabama’s swarming athleticism will help numb the nerves and punch its ticket to the school’s first Final Four.

— Alabama 72, Creighton 67

EAST REGION

First round

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Texas Southern

Friday, 3:50 p.m.

TV: TNT

Line: N/A

Pick: The Boilermakers won’t be the second 16-over-1 victim because there’s just no way to stop 7-foot-4 monster Zach Edey on the inside.

— Purdue 83, Texas Southern 60

No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic

Friday, 6:20 p.m.

TV: TNT

Line: Memphis by 2.

Pick: The Owls have had a great season, but Memphis appears to be peaking at the right time behind the play of transfer guard Kendric Davis.

— Memphis 78, Florida Atlantic 71

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts

Thursday, 4:10 p.m.

TV: CBS

Line: Duke by 6.5.

Pick: We all remember the magic of Oral Roberts in 2021, so it’s enticing to think that Duke could be the next victim. But the Blue Devils seem to have it rolling now.

— Duke 77, Oral Roberts 72

No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Louisiana

Thursday, 6:40 p.m.

TV: CBS

Line: Tennessee by 10.5.

Pick: Louisiana may have the best player on the floor in Jordan Brown, who averages 19 points and nine rebounds per game. The Volunteers will narrowly avoid another Rick Barnes special.

— Tennessee 66, Louisiana 64

No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Providence

Friday, 4:10 p.m.

TV: CBS

Line: Kentucky by 4.

Pick: The Wildcats have had to chew on their first-round loss to Saint Peter’s for a whole year. They haven’t been good lately, but Providence has been worse down the stretch.

— Kentucky 72, Providence 61

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Montana State

Friday, 6:40 p.m.

TV: CBS

Line: Kansas State by 8.5.

Pick: Jerome Tang has done a remarkable job in his first season at Kansas State. But the fun ends quickly against a Montana State team that has just as much NCAA Tournament experience from last season.

— Montana State 63, Kansas State 61

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 USC

Friday, 9:15 a.m.

TV: CBS

Line: Michigan State by 2.

Pick: The Trojans should feel good about their chances in this one. But Michigan State is playing for their whole campus community after the tragic February shooting.

— Michigan State 65, USC 62

No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Vermont

Friday, 11:45 a.m.

TV: CBS

Line: Marquette by 11.

Pick: The Catamounts could keep this one tight, but eventually Marquette’s unselfish brilliance will put the game away.

— Marquette 74, Vermont 59

Second round

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 8 Memphis

Sunday

Pick: We can’t forget that Memphis’ big win over Houston came without the Cougars’ best player, Marcus Sasser. Purdue will have enough answers to survive the scary Tigers.

— Purdue 68, Memphis 63

No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 5 Duke

Saturday

Pick: The Volunteers’ defense will muck up Duke’s flow and frustrate the Blue Devils’ freshman ensemble. But Tennessee will miss injured guard Zakai Zeigler.

— Duke 60, Tennessee 56

No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Montana State

Sunday

Pick: The Bobcats’ Cinderella story ends here with a Kentucky team that needed a little bracket luck to bend its way.

— Kentucky 78, Montana State 66

No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 7 Michigan State

Sunday

Pick: The Golden Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the country and can get scoring from anywhere in the lineup. Michigan State isn’t spectacular in any facet of the game.

— Marquette 78, Michigan State 69

Sweet 16

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 5 Duke

Thursday, March 23, New York City

Pick: Purdue has Zach Edey, but Duke has the veteran guard in Jeremy Roach, who won’t be overwhelmed by the big stage of Madison Square Garden. Purdue’s freshman guards will look like freshmen in crunch time.

— Duke 72, Purdue 68

No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 6 Kentucky

Thursday, March 23, New York City

Pick: The Golden Eagles just swept through the Garden on the way to the Big East tournament crown. They’ll take care of Kentucky, which doesn’t have its defensive chops this year.

— Marquette 75, Kentucky 68

Elite Eight

No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 5 Duke

Saturday, March 25, New York City

Pick: The Garden will be covered in blue. Is this Shaka Smart’s crowning achievement, 12 years after he took VCU to the Final Four, or is it Jon Scheyer’s coming-out party in his first year taking over for Coach K? Something about Marquette just feels special this year.

— Marquette 74, Duke 71

Final Four

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Connecticut

Saturday, April 1, Houston

Pick: The Cougars have been on an upward trajectory since Kelvin Sampson took over, and nothing — not even a hot Connecticut team that has all the pieces — will keep them from hosting Monday night’s final.

— Houston 65, Connecticut 60

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 Marquette

Saturday, April 1, Houston

Pick: The feel-good story for Marquette ends here, elevating a story making anybody outside of Alabama Nation feel confusion and conflict. The Crimson Tide athletes will overwhelm the Golden Eagles on the sport’s biggest stage.

— Alabama 78, Marquette 68

National championship

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 1 Houston

Monday, April 3, Houston

Pick: Back in December when Alabama was just a good basketball team nobody knew much about, the Crimson Tide overcame a 15-point deficit to beat No. 1 Houston in its home arena. In the rematch, the hometown Cougars will have the whole country behind them. Yet, so far, Alabama has thrived in the role of villain, and the Crimson Tide will be happy to go down as one of the most loathsome champions in college basketball history.

— Alabama 69, Houston 63

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