Typically a plane crash is big news, whereas a plane taking off or landing is not news at all.
But the sight on Tuesday of Nancy Pelosi’s US military aircraft touching down at Taipei Songshan airport in Taiwan – smoothly and without incident – was certainly news, and cause for a collective sigh of relief.
In this instance, however, the destination is as important as the journey. China claims sovereignty over Taiwan and its bellicose response to the House speaker’s arrival suggested that the risk of unintended consequences remains high. For those who believe a confrontation between the US and China over the self-governing island is one day inevitable, the speaker’s provocation may have just accelerated the timeline.
Pelosi, second in line to the presidency, defied a series of increasingly stark threats from China that have fuelled tensions. The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, told Joe Biden during a phone call last week that “whoever plays with fire will get burnt”.
Biden himself acknowledged that the US military felt it was “not a good idea right now” but also knew better than to try to meddle in the plans of Pelosi, who has long marched to the beat of her own drum.
She wrote in the Washington Post: “We cannot stand by as the CCP [Chinese Communist party] proceeds to threaten Taiwan – and democracy itself.
“Indeed, we take this trip at a time when the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy. As Russia wages its premeditated, illegal war against Ukraine, killing thousands of innocents – even children – it is essential that America and our allies make clear that we never give in to autocrats.”
Even as American democracy crumbles internally, there is nothing like a rallying cry for democracy abroad to bring the major political parties together. Twenty-six Republican senators, including the minority leader, Mitch McConnell, issued a joint statement in support of Pelosi’s visit. Even Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News lauded her.
Newt Gingrich, a Republican who was the last House speaker to visit Taiwan in 1997, told the Guardian: “Once it became public, she had to go through with it. Otherwise Xi Jinping would have got the impression that we could be bullied. She had no choice once it was public and it was disappointing to have the Biden administration confused by that reality.”
Which is reassuring up to a point, although, as a general rule, earning the full-throated endorsement of McConnell and Gingrich would normally give Pelosi cause to at least take a second look at her course of action. Some analysts believe they have all got it wrong.
Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at the Defense Priorities thinktank, said: “This foolish political stunt is unlikely to cause a war in itself, but it will only accelerate the sad process of sleepwalking into a global and national catastrophe at some unspecified time in the future. Preserving Washington’s One China policy and strategic ambiguity are the best approaches to maintain Taiwan’s autonomy.”
Some have also questioned: why now? For Pelosi, it may simply be electoral arithmetic as she seems poised to lose the speaker’s gavel to Republicans in November’s midterm elections and, at the age of 82, potentially retire. The Taiwan visit could be the culmination of a long career calling out Beijing’s human rights abuses.
But for critics, while the cause is just, the timing is off. Thomas Friedman, an opinion columnist at the New York Times, described the visit as “utterly reckless, dangerous and irresponsible”, not least because the White House has been involved in delicate negotiations to prevent China providing military assistance to Russia in Ukraine.
Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia programme at the US-based German Marshall Fund thinktank, argues that it would have been better to wait until after the Chinese Communist party’s 20th national congress later this year, when Xi is expected to secure a third term, and after the US clarifies its Taiwan policy. Biden raised eyebrows earlier this year by promising to defend the island militarily, throwing the longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” into doubt.
Glaser said: “There have been many statements about our policy toward Taiwan, some of which have been contradictory, and there is a need for some consistency and clarity in US policy. One of the reasons why China is responding as it is – and there are many drivers – is that they are losing confidence in the US commitment to One China and they see a gap between US words and deeds.
“The Chinese see a need to bolster their red lines to head off a bigger crisis with the United States down the road. They want to get US attention and react strongly enough now so that they can avoid a crisis later that might lead to a decision in China that they have to use force in order to stop the United States from going down this path. There is a need for the US to be more consistent and more disciplined.”
Indeed, China’s foreign affairs ministry wasted no time in condemning Pelosi’s visit, saying it “has a severe impact on the political foundation of China-US relations, and seriously infringes upon China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. It could respond by breaching Taiwan’s air defense identification zone or firing missiles into the Taiwan Strait – risking an accident that leads to escalation.
Democrats around the world may thank Pelosi for making a stand against autocrats – while praying that she can also keep the peace.
