There is a certain symmetry to the way things stand in the highly strung conflict between India and Pakistan – as of Wednesday night, we should add, given just how fast the situation is developing.
On Tuesday morning, India took the unprecedented step of launching airstrikes at what it said were militant targets in Pakistani territory across the Kashmir line of control.
Hours later, the Indian foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale appeared on national TV to talk down the action, explaining that the country meant to target only “the menace of terrorism” and not the state of Pakistan or its citizens – indeed, chastising Pakistan for not taking similar action itself.
On Wednesday morning Pakistan said it had launched its own airstrikes, targeting and then firing away from Indian military assets so as to demonstrate its defensive capability. Chaos only ensued when India scrambled its jets in response, and in the dogfight that followed one Pakistani and at least one Indian jet were shot down.
Then it was the turn of Imran Khan, the Pakistani prime minister, to go on TV and play down his country’s part in the skirmish. His air force had only set out to give India a warning, he said, before things got out of hand. He repeatedly used the phrase “miscalculation” and said such unforeseen events had led to “all wars” in the past.
And so, having shot down one aircraft each (though Pakistan still claims two) and conducted one round of airstrikes each across the line of control, where do the two sides go from here?
In his statement, Mr Khan invited his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi to “sit down and talk”. Clearly it is Pakistan’s view that the violence should end with today’s misadventures.
The Indian government, however, has made plain that it does not see any equivalence between Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s events. In the government’s latest statement, the foreign ministry said Pakistan’s ambassador here in Delhi had been summoned in protest at the “unprovoked act of aggression” by the Pakistani air force.
But while the statement also said India “reserves the right to take firm and decisive action” going forwards, there were two glimmers of hope for observers – the international community included – who want to see a de-escalation of tension.
One was that India said it had handed over a dossier to the Pakistani envoy detailing intelligence regarding both militant camps in Pakistan and “specific details of JeM [Jaish-e-Mohammed] complicity in the Pulwama terror attack” – the deadly car bombing in Kashmir on 14 February that, after all, set this whole situation going.
Mr Khan had already urged India to share any information it has on militant groups so they can “talk about the terrorism that effects us both [sic]”. Publicly seizing on the intelligence shared by India would be one way of reopening paths of cooperation.
Secondly, the Indian foreign ministry confirmed a man shown in videos released by Pakistan is indeed one of its air force pilots, captured after the Indian fighter jet came down in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
India bemoaned the use of the pilot in the “vulgar display”, saying it contravened the Geneva Conventions, and demanded he come to no harm and be granted “immediate and safe return”.
The pilot certainly “complicates the picture” regarding India’s next steps, one analyst told me. His detention may act as an effective deterrent to any further military action, particularly given the already deafening clamour on Indian social media channels for his safety to be assured.
There are other options India can pursue. As the larger and more robust economy, the country can continue steps it has already been taking since 14 February to diplomatically isolate and – in its view – punish Pakistan for its perceived role in militant attacks in Kashmir.
For the Indian government, hitting back at Pakistan militarily may be seen as a popular move – but with hashtags like “SayNoToWar” and “pakindiaceasefire”, there were plenty of calls from ordinary people on both sides of the border to show restraint.
So all eyes turn to Mr Modi, who did not make a public statement about Pakistan on Wednesday but met with the heads of India’s armed forces after ducking out of a National Youth Parliament festival that was taking place as the details of this morning’s events unfolded. As you read this, he may already have decided what India’s next step will be. Let’s hope he has been paying attention to those hashtags.
