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The Straits Times
The Straits Times
Politics
JONATHAN EYAL

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition deal unlikely to make her party or SPD happy

LONDON - German Chancellor Angela Merkel has defended her decision to enter into a coalition agreement with her chief political opponents, the centre-left Social Democrats, or the SPD as they are known in Germany.

The agreement, which ends months of political haggling, was promptly hailed by Dr Merkel, who is now assured of a fourth consecutive term in office, as "a good foundation for a stable government".

But the coalition deal may yet be rejected by the SPD's rank-and-file. And it comes as a deep disappointment to Dr Merkel's own centre-right supporters and backbench MPs, who fear that she has made too many concessions in order to cling to power.

Neither Dr Merkel's ruling Christian Democrats nor the SPD wanted this deal as they view a coalition agreement as harmful to their long-term interests.

But an agreement became inevitable after Germany's inconclusive general election results last September, and the Chancellor's subsequent failure to attract two small German parties into her government.

Still, the consensus among politicians in the capital of Berlin is that the SPD drove a hard bargain. The opposition Socialists did poorly in the general election, scoring their worst electoral result in almost a century. And with 153 MPs against 246 for Dr Merkel, they are very much the junior partner in the coalition.

But that's hardly noticeable in the 170-page coalition agreement signed this week, which is peppered with Socialist electoral priorities. More money is being pledged for social welfare and care for the elderly, for implementing fast broadband internet connections, boosting housing construction or fixing Germany's roads.

With a booming economy and state coffers full, Dr Merkel can afford to buy her coalition partners' loyalty: the country's national finances will probably enjoy a surplus of €45 billion (S$73 billion) over the next four years, so spending promises can be kept while still upholding the government's determination not to borrow.

Nevertheless, Germans in the higher tax brackets are likely to be angered by Dr Merkel's quick abandonment of her electoral promise to cut the country's overall tax burden, and especially by her failure to eliminate the hated "reunification tax", a supposedly temporary surcharge introduced in the early 1990s to finance the integration of the former communist East Germany, but still enforced a quarter of a century later.

German taxpayers may also be unimpressed by another promise in the new coalition agreement which declares that Germany is "ready to contribute more to the European Union budget". This hints at the possibility that the new German government would be prepared to accept proposals put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron, who suggested the creation of an automatic system to bail out EU nations in financial difficulties, precisely what the Germans have opposed for decades.

The unpopularity of any German move to accept the French proposals for financing the EU is sure to be exploited by opposition parties.

"French President Macron may well have been invited to join the government," quipped Mr Alexander Gauland, the leader of the Alternative for Germany, a far-right movement which came out of nowhere to become the country's third-biggest party last September.

Yet the biggest surprise has been the number of ministries which the Socialists have been able to secure in the new government. They got not only the foreign ministry which was always assumed to be theirs and a bevy of other junior ministers, but also the all-powerful finance ministry, which controls the purse-strings.

This came as a shock to Dr Merkel's supporters, many of whom were hoping for promotion. "At least we still have the Chancellery," Mr Olav Gutting, a fast-rising 47-year-old Christian Democrat MP, tweeted ironically.

Despite the generosity of the deal they obtained, it is by no means certain that the SPD's 400,000 rank-and-file members will support the coalition arrangement. Many in the party see the Chancellor as the source of their current electoral misfortunes, and the party's youth wing, now growing fast, is particularly against any power-sharing with Dr Merkel.

But even if the deal is approved and a new government starts functioning by the end of next month, Dr Merkel is not about to enjoy her time in office. The fight to succeed her is about to begin, and the battle for the soul of the Christian Democratic party, which has made so many concessions to the Socialists, will soon erupt.

Then, there is the tiny matter of the electorate. Current opinion polls indicate that the Socialists are supported by only 17 per cent of voters, not that much more than the support for the far-right Alternative for Germany, hitherto just a fringe party.

And, for the first time ever, Dr Merkel's new government commands the support of barely half of the German public. Not promising omens for an administration supposed to last for the next four years.

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