MIAMI — Wind shear and dry air are battering Tropical Storm Bret, which is no longer expected to become the season’s first hurricane as it approaches the Leeward and Windward Islands later this week. Forecasts show the storm could continue weakening through the weekend, keeping it on a path due south of most Caribbean Islands and well clear of Florida.
As of the 11 a.m. ET update, the National Hurricane Center found the storm was maintaining maximum sustained winds around 40 mph and heading west at a fast clip, around 21 mph. The center has issued no watches or warnings yet, but could issue tropical storm watches later Tuesday.
On Tuesday, Bret was facing some moderate wind shear, or winds blowing in an unfriendly direction, that made it more difficult for the storm to organize and strengthen. The system had also sucked in some dry air, further weakening the storm and lowering its chances of striking land as a hurricane later this week.
Forecasters said they expect the shear to keep Bret in check as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and keep it on a more southern path, below Haiti and the Dominican Republic, through the weekend.
Forecasters noted that if Bret stays weak, it could also move faster than the official hurricane center forecast predicts, bringing strong winds, rough surf and several inches of rain to nearby islands.
The hurricane center is also watching another potential storm right behind Bret. It gives the tropical disturbance a high chance (70%) of forming into a tropical depression in the next two days, but early predictions from storm models show its path curving north into the open Atlantic just ahead of the Leeward Islands.
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