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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden in Davos and Angela Monaghan

Davos 2019: Jacinda Ardern calls for environmental 'guardianship', as Bolsonaro alarms activists - live

Jacinda Ardern, Prime Minister of New Zealand, during a plenary session in the Congress Hall of the 49th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum today.
Jacinda Ardern, Prime Minister of New Zealand, during a plenary session in the Congress Hall of the 49th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum today. Photograph: Gian Ehrenzeller/EPA

Closing summary

Time for a recap after a busy day at Davos.

Today’s been largely dominated by environmental concerns, with a side order of anxiety about the world economy and Brexit

Jacinda Ardern has also joined the push; New Zealand’s PM told fellow world leaders to get on the right side of history, and embrace ‘guardianship’ of the earth.

Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, has vowed to create a ‘New Brazil’, based around slashing the size of the state.

Bolsonaro has been heavily criticised by environmental activists for his insistence on developing parts of the Amazon rainforest. Greenpeace say the right-winger is one of the main threats to the environment.

With America’s delegation grounded, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo addressed Davos by satellite link.

Pompeo hailed Brexit, along with Donald Trump’s presidency, as an example of the ‘new wave’ blowing through world politics.

People are asking questions that haven’t been asked, or taken seriously for an awfully long time.

Brexit is also causing angst in the financial community; Citi’s CEO Mike Corbat has said it will go ‘down to the wire’.

We’ll be back in the morning...

Updated

At least one of the UK’s coach-load full of ministers has been working hard at Davos....

UK ministers have kept a low profile at Davos today (they’ve been busy with Brexit issues back home).

But a row is brewing, after it emerged that SEVEN ministers are due at WEF this week - rubbing shoulders with the global elite rather than focusing on helping find a Brexit deal.

Ross Kempsell of Talk Radio has the details:

This has managed the rare trick of uniting the Labour Party and the Taxpayer’s Alliance - not natural bedfellows.

Updated

More news from Davos: WEF have announced an “ambitious new global partnership to accelerate inclusion for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBTI) people “ in the workplace.

Called the Partnership for Global LGBTI Equality, it’s designed to break down barriers and accelerate LGBTI inclusion in the workforce.

It’s been backed by big names, including Accenture, Deutsche Bank, EY, Mastercard, Microsoft, Omnicom and Salesforce, and supported by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.

In what is seemingly another veiled attempt to get Davos panellists to send a message to Trump, Al Gore asks Jacinda Arden to conjure a world leader in her mind.

It can be “man or woman” he says - trying to stay vague - who doesn’t want to do anything about the climate crisis, and is “hostile” to any efforts to take action. What would you say to them, he asks.

Jacinda says she’s not sure she would say anything at all but instead show something. “It only takes a trip to the Pacific to see that climate change isn’t a hypothetical,” and it doesn’t even require any knowledge of the science behind it. She said someone from the Pacific islands could show you where they used to play as children and where the water has risen to now.

Then it’s a matter of then saying that you don’t have to cede power by acting on climate change, and assuring there’s nothing to fear about their individual status. “It’s about being on the right side of history,” and being the politician looking back and knowing you were on the “right side” when the world was “crying out for a solution”.

Updated

Al Gore, Sir David Attenborough and Jacinda Ardern discussing climate change tonight
Al Gore, Sir David Attenborough and Jacinda Ardern discussing climate change tonight Photograph: Arnd Wiegmann/Reuters

Ardern: I was bood over climate views (not any more!)

Jacinda Ardern says she aims to to bring the New Zealand Maori philosophy of ‘guardianship’ of the environment into politics.

She said the challenge is to deeply embed the infrastructure of long term change during a short political cycles that can be as short as three years.

“There’s a reason to be optimistic.” Jacinda remembers that just 10 years ago she was booed by other politicians, and even her own family, when talking about climate change and environmentalism.

There’s been a marked shift since then, she said, adding that it’s important not to go it alone. She thanked Attenborough for being a trusted voice that helped “create space” for politicians to do the right thing.

She said now we need to turn pessimism and fear on its head, and into an opportunity to “future proof” society and the economy. The PM says it’s the “only option”.

Updated

Back in the congress hall, Al Gore notes that the fastest growing job in the US is currently ‘solar installer’ which is growing 9 times faster than average national job growth.

The second is wind turbine technician, he said, adding that there’s clearly an “opportunity for tens of millions of jobs” to be retrofitting buildings with this renewable technology.

The former US vice-president turned climate change campaigner is now challenging world leaders to step up:

Kristalina Georgieva, the acting head of the World Bank has told a panel on investing in fragile states that there are four big reasons why countries are in a bad way: conflict, climate, high population growth and bad governance.

One of the best ways to improve things was to empower women.

“In a crisis environment you give a sense of strength to women and you have a better chance of peace”.

David Miliband, the former foreign secretary and now chief executive of the International Rescue Committee said on the same panel that displacement of peoples was seen as a short-term problem when in fact it was a long-term problem.

“People are more likely to be displaced for 17 years than 17 months”, he said, adding that it was a “dereliction of duty” that only 2% of the humanitarian aid budget was spent on education.

Back in the congress hall, Al Gore has taken the stage to introduce the Safeguarding Our Planet session.

The panel includes Sir David Attenborough (he’s been a busy man in the last 24 hours) and New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Arden.

With everyone sat down, they’ve again played a clip from Attenborough’s upcoming Netflix series made in conjunction with the WWF. Our Planet is definitely getting a lot of mileage at Davos this year....

Once they start talking, Ardern sounds like a leader who understands the scale of the crisis -- she’s explaining how the need take ‘guardianship’ of our planet.

Down the corridor from the Davos congress hall, the head of the World Bank is warning world leaders to help tackle extreme poverty, or face more security threats.

Environmentalists sound alarm over Bolsonaro

Environmental experts are alarmed by Jair Bolsonaro’s insistence on balancing ‘environmental protection with economic development’.

Jennifer Morgan, executive director for Greenpeace International, believes Bolsonaro’s attitude to the Amazon is one of the biggest threats to the environment.

She says handing the agriculture ministry more control of the rainforest is “incredibly worrying”; it could damage the environment and harm the indigenous people who live in the Amazon.

She told me:

“We’re working with allies, and we’ll work to defend everything that we can because the Amazon isn’t just an amazing forest, it’s the lungs of the earth and it plays an incredibly important role in the climate.”

She is challenging business leaders to raise these issues with the Brazilian president, and “prioritise the Amazon over short-term business profit.”

Lord Nicholas Stern, who wrote a ground-breaking report on the economics of climate change, is also concerned.

“Bolsonaro was elected on a programme to deal with violence and criminality that kills 40-50000 people a year. My guess is that 100,000 die from air pollution.”

Stern added that he has raised the need to protect the Amazon rain forest with Bolsonaro’s finance minister Paulo Guedes at a meeting in Davos.

“The ravages of climate change are becoming clearer and clearer and time is running out. But the alternative is becoming more attractive. I would like to think the arguments are sinking in.”

Pompeo wrapped up his 30 minute satellite link to Davos by denying that the US is isolated on the world stage.

That would be more convincing if the secretary of state wasn’t addressing the global elite from 4,000 miles away (the ongoing shutdown is to blame there)

Q: Are the US and Russia doomed to cold war rivalry?

Pompeo jokily grumbles that he’s not getting any easy questions.

It’s not the case that we are doomed to a cold war rivalry, he insists, But given Russia’s “formidable” nuclear arsenal, the two sides must talk to prevent nuclear proliferation.

Pompeo says the US is looking to Russia to change its behaviour, whether in Crimea or in the US, influencing elections.

Chastising Vladimir Putin’s administration, Pompeo says he “hopes they return to the right course of actions that lead them back to the rule of law.”

If that happens.. we are not destined to be protagonists, but it will require a change of heart from Russia.

On the US-China trade war, Pompeo says he believes the two countries can have a bright future together.

But there’s still much hard work to do; he cites the need for intellectual property protections for US companies working in China.

On geopolitics, Pompeo says “We face many new threats, some not so new”.

He cites:

  • North Korea’s nuclear programme
  • Iran’s “foreign adventurism”
  • China “state-centred economic model , belligerence towards its neighbours, and embrace of a totalitarian state at home”
  • Islamic terrorism, which is still a threat.

But Pompeo also hails the ‘beautiful coalitions’ that have helped the US.

Pompeo is now tooting Trumpian economics.

He says the US economy just grew at over 3% per year, wage growth is up, and female unemployment is a 65-year low.

This “unleashing of animal spirits” has protected the US from a wider economic slowdown.

He then urges Davos attendees to copy Trump’s model of “low taxes, economic liberalism and trade reforms”.

[yes, you too could have a rising deficit and a trade war with China....]

Updated

Pompeo: Trump, Brexit and Macron show world is changing

We are living in interesting times, Mike Pompeo tells Davos.

Voters have tuned out politicians and political alliance that they didn’t were working in their interests.

He cites Brexit, Emmanuel Macron in France, the Five Star movement in Italy, and Donald Trump’s victory in 2016.

People are asking questions that haven’t been asked, or taken seriously for an awfully long time.

Those questions include:

  • Is economic growth good for me
  • are politicians protecting me from terrorists
  • are they working for my national interests abroad

New winds are blowing across the world. But do they signal fair weather, or herald a storm, asks Pompeo poetically (well, for Davos anyway).

He claims it is a positive development -- these developments show that nations and strong borders matter (he adds a pop at Nato members to raise military spending too)

Mike Pompeo speaks

It’s all go here at Davos.

Jair Bolsonaro has left the stage, and he’s been replaced by Mike Pompeo.

Not in person, alas, but via a satellite link -- because Donald Trump decided to cancel the entire US delegation to Davos.

Pompeo starts by saying that it’s cold in Washington DC - so he feels like he’s in Davos in spirit (minus 14 degrees this morning folks)

Bolsonaro: We’ll lift heavy hand of the state

Onto questions.

WEF founder Klaus Schwab asks Jair Bolsonaro what ‘concrete steps’ he will take to create his New Brazil.

I feared for a moment that Bolsonaro might talk about concreting over the Amazon (giving his push for ‘much-needed economic development’).

But instead, the new president outlines how he will reduce the size of the state by reforming taxes, reforming social security, and lifting the “heavy weight” of the state.

That might please free-marketeers in the audience, but it may worry Brazilians reliant on that aid (although Bolsonaro, of course, was elected on this platform).

On economic issues, Bolsonaro says he is committed to opening up the Brazilian economy.

He cites his commitments to reform taxes and privatise assets.

And wrapping himself in the garb of a world leader, this former military officer declares:

I want a world of freedom, peace and democracy.

Brazil is a paradise, Bolsonaro declares, adding proudly:

No other country in the world has as many forests as we do.

The worry, of course, is that the new government will damage the Amazon. One of Bolsonaro’s first acts was to transfer control of the regulation and creation of indigenous reserves to the agriculture ministry -- which is controlled by agribusiness lobby.

That has been widely criticised by environmental groups.

Bolsonaro’s message is clear -- he wants economic development in the Amazon.

He says:

It is now our mission to make progress in harmonising environmental preservation and biodiversity, with the much needed economic development.

Those who criticise us have a great deal to learn with us, he adds slightly cryptically.

President Bolsonaro begins by talking about the New Brazil which he is building.

He says he was victorious in last year’s presidential race despite

And he quickly criticises his predecessors, saying:

I took office amid a great ethical, moral and economic crisis. I am committed to changing our history.

Bolsonaro says his ministers are committed to cracking down on corruption and money-laundering.

We are also spending more on security, he says, telling the Davos elite they should feel safe visiting Brazil with their families.

Updated

Brazil's president Bolsonaro speaks

It’s time for the first major keynote speech - and the honour goes to Brazil’s new president, Jair Bolsonaro.

There’s a lot of interest in Bolsonaro here at WEF, given his pledge to cut taxes, liberalise the Brazilian economy, and defeat socialism.

But there should also be disquiet about Bolsonaro, given his history of inflammatory comments against minorities such as the LGBT community. Recent moves to open up exploitation of the Amazon, potentially causing great harm to indigenous people, are also a concern.

Updated

A group of arctic scientists, camped out at Davos to promote the climate change crisis, have welcomed Sir David Attenborough’s comments.

We echo his calls for urgent action on climate change to prevent catastrophic changes to our planet through carbon emissions.

What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic, for example, extreme weather at mid-latitudes is a symptom of a warming Arctic.

The awesome clip showed today at Davos is replicating all over the Arctic - and we need urgent action to stop it.

That’s the end of the ‘conversation’ (disappointing, as I was hoping for more parenting insights from the Duke).

Let’s just hope the world leaders at Davos were listening to Attenborough’s warnings about the need to address climate change, now, before we’ve caused irreparable damage to the natural world.

Otherwise, I fear the Prince may struggle to carve out a new career as a TV interrogator -- lucky he’s a dab hand with a helicopter.

Updated

I’m delighted to report that Prince William has cracked a joke.

We’re being shown a dramatic clip from Our Planet, of a glacier ‘calving’ -- a massive skyscraper-sized piece of ice, surging upwards and away from the rest of the sheet (making the most almighty din)

Before we see it, Attenborough is explaining how it’s very tricky to film such an event, as you never quite know when it’s going to happen.

“Quite like children, Sir David, unpredictable,” grins the Duke.

Attenborough is now plugging his new TV venture, Our Planet, created with the World Wildlife Fund.

It’ll be shown on Netflix, Attenborough says excitedly, saying that this will give a new audience for his work.

It’s a step forward from the old days of broadcast TV...

Now, with Netflix, it is possible for a show to be seen by 150 million people overnight.

[Other streaming services are available too.....]

Q: Why will you be seeking a global deal for nature in 2020?

Attenborough says the Paris Agreement recognised the “paramount importance” of recognising that humans were raising the word’s temperature, and must control it.

That recognition was important, but not universal, and some have withdrawn from it (yes you, Mr Trump).

So a global deal for nature is meant to build on Paris, and ensure that countries stick to those commitments.

Prince William isn’t showing his hidden Jeremy Paxman here....but he does turn to the issue of how you balance capitalism and caring for the environment.

Attenborough says that great damage was caused in the past, when people though that economic progress inevitably came at the expense of the environment.

We are all one world.

Attenborough is now explaining how the complexity of nature means humans can have a severe impact on the natural world.

At the start of the 20th Century, sea otters in the Pacific were hunted for their most luxurious fur, so they were hunted heavily.

Their numbers declined, and so - people eventually noticed - did fish stocks.

Why?

Sea otters prey on sea urchins, and they eat small algae. If they eat all that, the forest of algae vanishes, and there’s no food for small fish.

Q: What advice do you have for my generation, Prince William adds, as they take positions of power?

The paradox that there have never been a time when ore people are out of touch from the natural world than they are now.

Need to realise that every breath we take, every mouthful of food, comes from the natural world - so if we damage that we damage ourselves.

And he goes on to urge the world leaders and business chiefs in the Davos conference hall to care for natural world, or we will harm ourselves.

Q: Why have politicians been too slow to recognise the climate change problem?

Attenborough explains that the industrial revolution took humans away from nature, so we didn’t recognise the true impact of our activity on the environment.

People saw the natural world as something to conquer, not care for.

No excuse now, of course.

Updated

Attenborough: We can exterminate whole ecosystems

Q: How urgent is the climate change crisis?

It’s hard to overstate it, Attenborough replies.

Humans are now so numerous, and so powerful, that we can exterminate whole ecosystems without even noticing it, he replies somberly.

We now have to be really aware about this, he adds, citing the growing problem of plastic in the sea.

Prince William hardens up the questioning (a tiny notch), asking why Attenborough has become more vocal about environmental campaigning.

DA replies that earlier in his career, it seemed unlikely that humans could drive a whole species to extinction - or it if happened, it was a rarity.

Now we are ware that the whole natural world is within our control, he adds.

Q: So that changed your view?

Yes. Before, the notion that humanity might exterminate a whole community of animals was quite foreign.

Updated

Q: How have technology changes affected the job of bringing nature to the public?

Sir David says it’s gone two ways. A few decades ago, if you showed a shot of an armadillo, they thought ‘my goodness, what is that’ -- the quality didn’t matter.

Now, advances in tech mean you can show nature in a way that “20 years ago, no-one could have imagined”

Asked why his TV series have always proved so successful, Attenborough says he’s not surprised - but that’s thanks to the human capacity to be excited and amazed by the new.

He cites a small child turning over a small stone, and declaring “A slug, what a treasure!”

Q: How has the world changed since you started your broadcasting career in the 1950s?

Sir DA explains that back in those days, the world felt unexplored and exciting. Visiting the Tropics for the first time, everywhere you turned you saw something new.

You really got the feeling about how it must have been in the Garden of Eden.

Prince William interviews Sir David Attenborough

WEF’s founder Klaus Schwab is introducing Prince William and Sir David Attenborough now, for a dialogue on nature

The Duke begins by congratulating Sir David for winning the crystal award from the World Economic Forum last night.

This session is called “A Conversation with Sir David Attenborough and HRH the Duke of Cambridge”, which sounds jolly cosy....

....except this particular conversation is happening on a big stage, in a room that seats thousands.

WEF says Attenborough will talk about “his life’s work and how he has inspired generations of people to become champions for our planet”.

There’s a buzz building inside the Davos congress centre, as delegates flock towards its cavernous hall.

Prince William has now been sighted, and will be interviewing Sir David Attenborough shortly.

Sir David caused quite a stir at Davos last night, warning that human activity had pushed us into a new geological age:

The Holocene has ended. The Garden of Eden is no more.

We have changed the world so much that scientists say we are in a new geological age: the Anthropocene, the age of humans,

Miliband: World is suffering from 'crisis of diplomacy'

David Miliband
David Miliband

David Miliband, president of the International Rescue Committee and the former Labour foreign secretary is speaking on a panel about the humanitarian crises that will shape 2019. He says the world is suffering from “a crisis of diplomacy”.

We’re seeing a retreat by the major global diplomatic players in a way that creates a vacuum in a way that we believe are contributors to the rising levels of violence and humanitarian tragedy that we see.

I’m here in Davos because I believe that at a time when governments are in retreat, NGOs and the corporate sector have to step up, and that’s what we’re hoping to see this week.

AM

Updated

Citi’s CEO Mike Corbat also told Davos that he’s worried about the people caught up in the US government shutdown, and “the hardship” that is being created.

Citi: Brexit will go down to the wire

Michael Corbat, chief executive officer of Citigroup, has told Davos that Brexit means his firm will be doing less work in London.

Speaking at a lunch organised by Bloomberg, Corbat explained that Citi have already taken precautions for Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal - but wouldn’t say how much it will cost.

Corbat explained:

From Citi’s perspective, from the industry’s perspective, as for many businesses, we’ve had no choice but to prepare for a hard Brexit, as its likely we will come down to the wire.

Hopefully reason will prevail and we’ll strike a balanced outcome for each of the parties, but in some ways it’s a difficult situation.

Q: Do you think less of London than you used to?

Corbat doesn’t address the question directly, but then explains that Citi will be forced to move jobs overseas.

The outcome is that we will be doing less there.

If you look at our business there, a third of our business is UK related. About a third is Europe-related, and about a third is rest of world.

Without a doubt it’s likely we will be forced to move our European piece to the continent, and we’ve prepared for that.

Obviously we’ll continue to do the UK piece in the UK, and over time we’ll see what happens to the other third.

Q: What will a hard Brexit cost Citi?

That’s confidential, Corbat, smiles, but “it’s not going to be a cost-neutral outcome.”

Updated

Matt Damon is in Davos, as part of his campaign for clean water:

Christine Lagarde has been speaking to CNBC about the IMF’s 2019 outlook.

She says there is a lot of uncertainty facing the global economy, not least the trade war between the US and China, and the outcome of Brexit talks.

AM

Updated

A quick recap on European markets, where losses have widened as afternoon trading gets underway:

  • FTSE 100: -0.5% at 6,936
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.6% at 11,072
  • France’s CAC: -0.7% at 4,832
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1% at 19,444
  • Spain’s IBEX: -0.5% at 9,006
  • Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.4% at 355

AM

Updated

Angel Gurria, secretary general of the OECD, says the chances of a no-deal Brexit are getting bigger every day. Speaking in Davos he said Brexit was a “systemic” issue, with far-reaching consequences.

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Updated

Reskilling workers will cost US $29bn

The World Economic Forum has some bad news for the US government -- reskilling its workforce to thrive in the new technological age will cost $34bn. And Washington will have to pick up most of the bill.

WEF has calculated that it will only be profitable for companies to reskill around 25% of the nearly 15 million workers who will be forced out of the jobs market by automation in the next decade.

The burden of the rest must be picked up by the state.

Here’s the key points from WEF’s survey:

  • New study on the US labour market finds that 86% of the $34 billion total cost for reskilling nearly 1.4 million “stranded workers” displaced by the Fourth Industrial Revolution and other factors over the next decade will likely fall on the government
  • The private sector could profitably reskill 25% of all workers, a figure rising to 45% if businesses collaborate
  • World Economic Forum partner companies have pledged to reskill or upskill 17 million workers globally, surpassing a 2018 target to reach 10 million workers by 2020

UK employment hits another record high

The latest wages and jobs report also showed another record high for UK employment.

The number of people in work rose by 141,000 in the three months to November to 32.53m, easily beating economists’ forecasts of 85,000.

An employment rate of 75.8% is the highest since comparable records began in 1971. The unemployment rate meanwhile dipped unexpectedly to 4% from 4.1%.

Here is the official take on the data from David Freeman at the ONS:

The number of people working grew again, with the share of the population in work now the highest on record. Meanwhile, the share of the workforce looking for work and unable to find it remains at its lowest for over 40 years, helped by a record number of job vacancies.

Wage growth continues to outpace inflation, which fell back slightly in the latest month.

AM

Updated

UBS chairman calls for Brexit 'compromises'

The head of Swiss banking giant UBS is cautiously optimistic that the Brexit crisis will be resolved, but wants to see more compromises...

Right-wingers blast Davos crony capitalism (!)

The free-market Institute for Economic Affairs think tank does not usually side with the anti-globalisation movement but on one thing they do agree: Davos is a bit of a racket.

Philip Booth, an IEA fellow, said the annual January shindig was the perfect environment for “crony capitalism” to flourish.

“Industry is shaped by the dispersed decisions of seven billion consumers and tens of millions of businesses. It is not - or should not - be shaped by politicians. Yet Davos remains a huge magnet for politicians to work alongside leaders of the largest businesses and other vested interests to devise yet more regulations, interventions and barriers to entry that will undermine competition, by making it even harder for small businesses to operate in their markets.

“The gathering perpetuates the myth that economic welfare is promoted by “experts”. Next year, our government officials should sit the conference out, and leave Davos to the skiers.”

China: don't panic about our slowdown

One of China’s top financial regulators has told Davos that the country’s economy is indeed slowing (as IHS’s Nariman Behravesh just warned us) , but it’s not a disaster.

UK pay grows at fastest rate in a decade

In the UK, figures just published show that pay grew at its fastest rate since 2008 at the end of last year, handing some good news to cash-strapped consumers.

Pay (including bonuses) grew by 3.4% between September to November, compared with the same period in 2017 according to the ONS. It was the fastest rate since May to July 2008, before the global financial crisis had unleashed the worst of its effects. Economists had predicted growth of 3.3%, unchanged from the previous three months.

That meant a real terms pay increase - when adjusted for inflation - of 1.2%.

When bonuses were stripped out, regular pay increased by 3.3%, the highest since September to November 2008, equating to real terms pay rise of 1.1%.

The decent wage data has sent the pound above the $1.29 mark.

pay this
pay this

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Updated

IHS: One more shock could trigger a recession

Nariman Behravesh, the chief economist of IHS Global Insight warns that global growth is slowing around the world.

“This year the chances of a recession are around one in three but next year I see it as 50-50”, he tells us, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.

“For 2021 there is the same risk. Growth will be slow enough that it wouldn’t take much of a shock to push it into recession.”

Behravesh added that an intensification of the trade war might be the trigger for a global recession, but the most likely cause would be a policy mistake.Looking at the world’s three biggest economies, he said the US had been boosted temporarily by Donald Trump’s tax cuts, the euro zone was again growing only slowly and the authorities in China were trying to stimulate activity.

“I am worried about China. It is surprising how fragile it is starting to look. All of a sudden the juggernaut is starting to look wobbly.”

Behravesh said he expected a Brexit deal because “a hard Brexit would be horrible both for the UK and the EU. The backlash from business in the UK against a hard Brexit is pretty strong, but the EU is also starting to get worried despite what it says.”

Mohammed Hassan Mohamud
Mohammed Hassan Mohamud Photograph: WEF

You can read more details of Mohammed Hassan Mohamud’s remarkable journey from two decades in a refugee camp to Davos here.

Here’s a flavour:

At 28, Mohammed is the youngest Zonal Chairman at Kakuma, which was established in 1992 after the arrival of the ‘Lost Boys of Sudan’. These were about 20,000 children, mostly boys, who were separated from their families during conflict, trekking enormous distances to find refuge.

Conditions in the camp, both mental and physical, are tough:

We have adequate water. And obviously, it’s not enough, but it’s there. Like one tap. Our homes are made of iron sheets. We also have some services, access to medical facilities and the World Food Programme provides rations once a month.

“But what I deal with is mainly psychological. People go crazy sometimes. Often, when outside people meet refugees, they only look at the physical suffering and the physical need. ‘This person is injured, this person is hungry or homeless’, and that’s solved by donating food or giving shelter.

“But 5, 10, 15 years down the line, the needs change. It’s not about hunger now - it’s more than that. It’s about finding a home. It’s about identity. And that’s what causes problems. And that’s what I deal with myself also.

Philipp Hildebrand, vice chairman of BlackRock (the world’s largest fund manager) warns there could be a “violent” market reaction to a no-deal Brexit.

He told Bloomberg TV in Davos:

If we’re realistic we have to say there is little chance of the deal going through in its current form.

So there is no Brexit on the one hand which could take various forms - the most modest one would be a delay initially - or a hard Brexit. A hard Brexit would be a dramatic event which I believe today is under-appreciated by the market.

When we look at this we have to say that it’s now either no Brexit or hard Brexit and that is something we should pay attention to because were that to happen, you can be sure that the market would react violently, perhaps at the last minute.

AM

Davos co-chair: Help refugees, don't be frightened

One of the co-chairs at this year’s Annual Meeting is being Mohammed Hassan Mohamud - a 28-year old refugee.

Mohammed has spent the last 20 years confined to Kenya’s Kakuma camp. He has no passport, no official date of birth and has never been anywhere outside the semi-arid climate of Sub-Saharan Africa - until this week, when WEF have brought him to Davos.

He’s a powerful speaker - telling delegates to drop their distrust of refugees and help.

Mohammed says:

I don’t know what you’re afraid of. Refugees are real people.

He explains that there are 185,000 refugees from 10 nationalities - he’s kept awake at night worrying if he, and his brothers and sisters, will ever get out of the camp.

We are just like other people. We have aspirations, we have dreams and we have needs.

It surprises me that money and capital moves around the moves in seconds, but it takes a refugee decades - or in the case of my mother, she never got out. Waiting for 25 year for a change to call somewhere home.

Refugee camps are not ethical - putting people in faraway places and pretending they don’t exist is not ethical, nor sustainable, and not conducive for human growth.

Updated

1,500 private jets expected

A jet carrying participants to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos taxis at the military airport in Duebendorf, Switzerland,.
A jet carrying participants to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos taxis at the military airport in Duebendorf, Switzerland,. Photograph: Walter Bieri/EPA

Davos attendees may be worried about climate change, but many are still choosing to arrive by private jet.

Industry group Air Charter Service reckons there could be as many as 1,500 private jet flights over the week as delegates fly in for WEF.

Andy Christie, Private Jets Director at ACS, explains:

Davos doesn’t have its own airfield and, whilst we have several clients who fly into the town by helicopter, the four main airfields that private jet users attending the forum use are Zürich, Dübendorf, St. Gallen-Altenrhein and St. Moritz.

“Working with WingX, we looked at private jet activity at those airports over the six days of each WEF week since 2013 – from one day before the event to one day after. Last year was the busiest year for private jets so far, showing an 11% increase on 2017, with more than 1,300 aircraft movements. If we see a similar increase this year, we could be looking at almost 1,500 aircraft movements over the six days.

Some delegates will then further undermine the fight against climate change by taking a private limo from the airport into Davos, shunning the option of a bus or train (which are impressively reliable).

Roland Rudd is in Davos and has been speaking about Brexit. The veteran PR man says the UK would “feel the pinch” very soon if the UK leaves the EU without a deal and that the rest of the world is “amazed we’re having this conversation”.

AM

An early Davos mystery.....

Davos Man and Woman are discussing the impact of strategic changes on their businesses.

And after the raw greed and avarice that led to the financial crisis, it’s refreshing to hear a bank boss argue in favour of financial regulation:

Google’s finance chief, Ruth Porat, is arguing that businesses need to win users’ trust - and you only do that by doing the right thing in the first place.

Union chief: We need wealth transfer, not warm words

We just caught up with Christy Hoffman, the general secretary of the UNI global union, which represents 20 million service sector workers - from cleaners to Hollywood film directors - in 150 countries.

She said her message to the executives gathered in Davos was the need for a new social contract to revive collective bargaining, manage the change brought about by new technology and spread the benefits of growth more widely.

“Workers think globalisation for the elite, that Davos is for the elite. Where does that leave our global institutions and global trade. If we want a globalised economy it can’t just be for corporations.”

Hoffman said she was shocked by the Oxfam report showing 26 billionaires owned the same wealth as half the world’s population.

There was a lot of talk at Davos about the need to deal with growing inequality but not a lot of action.

Hoffman says:

“There is no sense of sacrifice. There needs to be a transfer of wealth from one set of pockets to another.”

Updated

European markets fall in early trading

Global growth fears appear to be weighing on investor minds this morning, with European markets down in early trading following falls in Asia.

The International Monetary Fund cut global growth forecasts on Monday, warning that a sharper slowdown in China and a no-deal Brexit are the biggest risks in 2019.


Here are the scores so far across Europe:

  • FTSE 100: -0.2% at 6,959
  • Gemany’s DAX: -0.5% at 11,080
  • France’s CAC: -0.4% at 4,846
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.5% at 19,542
  • Spain’s IBEX: -0.5% at 9,011
  • Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.4% at 355

Adair Turner, chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, has been speaking to Bloomberg in Davos about the impact of a China slowdown:

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Disappointingly, this year’s Davos is missing several key world leaders.

Donald Trump pulled out earlier this month, to focus on the US government shutdown.

Ditto Theresa May, to focus on the Brexit talks.

Emmanuel Macron is also staying at home, to focus on the anger of the Yellow Vest protests.

And on Sunday, Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa abandoned plans to pitch for more investment - as public unrest at home builds.

We’ll still get Bolsonaro, Japan’s Shinzo Abe, and Germany’s Angela Merkel.

But as one Davos insider put it, the world leaders facing the biggest crises are staying at home.

Introduction: Financial risks and climate change

‘Globalization 4.0: Shaping a Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution’

Good morning from Davos, where the first day of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting is underway.

It’s a balmy minus 14 degrees this morning as top politicians, business leaders, advisers, rising ‘young global leaders’ and campaigners begin this annual gathering of the so-called global elite.

Delegates should still have a stern warning from Sir David Attenborough ringing in their ears. Last night, the 92-year old broadcasting legend (the oldest, and perhaps most-loved attendee) declared that humans needed to urgently use their expert problem-solving skills to address the climate crisis, before catastrophe strikes.

This official title of this year’s event is ‘Globalization 4.0: Shaping a Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution’.

WEF hopes to make progress in tackling inequality, helping the losers from the last few decades of globalisation (but how quaffing champagne at exclusive parties in a Swiss ski resort achieves this is still unclear).

After months of market turbulence, trade war tensions and signs that China is slowing down, the business chiefs who have made the trek to Davos this week are certainly nervous. Last night, PwC’s annual healthcheck showed a worrying rise in pessimism.

There’ll be a big focus on the global economy today, with sessions on financial risk - and a satellite appearance by US secretary of state Mike Pompeo.

Attenborough will also be appearing at a couple of sessions - one with Prince William, who will also be promoting mental health issues this week.

The big ticket event, though, could be a speech by Brazil’s new populist president Jair Bolsonaro. He’ll be pitching his right-wing, free market policies to the investors at Davos.

Here’s a flavour of what’s on the agenda:

  • 8.45am GMT/9.45am Davos time: Are we ready for the next financial shock? USB chairman Axel Weber, Fang Xinghai, Vice-Chairman, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater and Jin Keyu of the London School of Economics will give their views on this vital topic
  • 9am GMT/10am Davos time: IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath and economist Adam Tooze will discuss how to rethink globalisation
  • 12.30pm GMT/ 1.30pm Davos: Press Conference: The Humanitarian Crises That Will Shape 2019
  • 1.15pm GMT / 2.15pm Davos: A Conversation with Sir David Attenborough and HRH The Duke of Cambridge
  • 2.30pm GMT/3.30pm Davos: Special Address by Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil
  • 3pm GMT/4pm Davos: Special Session with Michael Pompeo, Secretary of State of the United States
  • 4pm GMT/5pm Davos: Sir David Attenborough, former US vice-president Al Gore and New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern will discuss how to save our planet (the title of Attenborough’s new Netflix series)

Updated

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