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ABC News
ABC News
Business
By Dong Xing and staff 

China's economy faces multiple challenges but what might those pressures mean for Australia?

Recent figures show China's economic growth has slowed. (Flickr: Tauno Tõhk)

Mr Zhao deposited his life savings into a bank in central China, but now can't access any of it.  

The 44-year-old said his 1 million yuan ($217,000) had been frozen since April. 

Mr Zhao — who only wanted to use his surname because of fear of retribution from local authorities for speaking to media — is among 400,000 people impacted by one of China's biggest banking sagas. 

Six banks in rural China have been hit hard by Beijing's efforts to rein in a property bubble and spiralling debt, in a financial crackdown that has had ripple effects across the world's second-largest economy.

The slowdown forced four banks in Henan province, and two in Anhui province, to freeze all cash withdrawals since mid-April, leaving thousands of small savers without funds and sparking rare, sometimes violent, protests.

When it comes to China's economic woes, the banking issue is just the tip of the iceberg.

Shortly after the protests, Beijing announced China's economic growth rate had dropped dramatically.

Here's a snapshot of other issues impacting the country's economy and how some business leaders think China's situation could affect Australia.

China's economy causes 'ripple effects'

The Economist Intelligence Corporate Network's China director, Mattie Bekink, said China's recent quarterly growth rate was its lowest figure of that kind since 1990.

"The pressures are real," Ms Bekink said.

Speaking to the ABC's The World programshe said China's strict adherence to its COVID-zero strategy had also slowed economic growth globally and contributed to inflation increases worldwide, noting "2022 is going to be a rough ride for the global economy".

"That's not the technical way to describe it, but I think that's the reality that we're living through," she said. 

Ms Bekink said China's economic situation had "ripple effects" on other economies, including Australia's, which had been demonstrated by manufacturing and transport disruptions in supply chains since the pandemic began.

"On the one hand it demonstrates our global interconnectivity," she said.

"But … it also demonstrates the need to find more global solutions to some of these pressing challenges.

"What happens in China — and lockdowns in Shanghai — has effects on Melbourne and beyond."

University of Sydney international business lecturer Li Wei said Australia's economy was in a strong position and had proven to be resilient to declines in China's economy in the past.

"If China's full-year economic growth remains at 2 per cent this year, Australia will not be affected," Dr Li said. 

Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research research fellow Wang Jiao said that, despite the sharp decline in the growth figure, the data also suggested China's economy was already rebounding.

"When we're looking at the second quarter itself, it's bad," Dr Wang said, "but, if we put it into the near-term perspective, I think that the June data, especially, showed that the economy is recovering."

Their comments come as Australian business leaders this week appeared unfazed by China formally establishing a new minerals giant that aims to give Chinese steel producers more bargaining power over prices for Australia's most important export, iron ore.

Property market in China under stress

Homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages on unfinished apartments and housing.  (Reuters: Bobby Yip)

In addition to the banking saga, another key issue facing China's economy is a property market in decline. 

"Real estate accounts for about 78 per cent of household wealth in China," Ms Bekink said. 

The country's property sector ran into trouble last year when the Chinese government took action to rein in borrowing by property developers from homebuyers, sparking at least 18 defaults.

In China, homebuyers start making mortgage repayments on a property when the deposit is paid, even before construction is complete.

"Loan payments start with that initial deposit and they can go on for years while the projects are delayed and that's what you're seeing now," Ms Bekink said.

"Over the last decade, that pre-sale cash is really what fuelled the housing boom and allowed developers to start new projects before the old ones were completed."

The situation has led to thousands of homebuyers involved in about 100 projects across 50 cities refusing to pay their mortgages due to construction delays, which, in turn, has caused housing projects in China to stall.

Ms Bekink said it was still unclear whether the property sector crisis was "salvageable".  

Dr Wang said the decline of China's housing market would result in weaker demand for Australia's export of raw materials, such as iron ore, but that Beijing's stimulus policy could create new opportunities for the essential Australian industry. 

The property market woes also mean less revenue for local governments in China.

Local media has reported that public servants in China's rich east coast provinces have seen their salaries cut by up to 30 per cent, while various bonuses have been cancelled.

Sources told the ABC that some staff in state-run institutions in Henan province, where the banking scandal occurred, have even had their salaries suspended.

China rules out stimulus for economy

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang speaking at a press conference earlier this year, where he was more optimistic about China's growth targets. (AP: Ng Han Guan)

China's Premier, Li Keqiang, said this week that the government would not provide any large-scale stimulus packages to boost the nation's economy.

Speaking at a virtual dialogue hosted by the World Economic Forum, Mr Li said it would take a long time for the economy to stabilise, but that the country would "try its best" to achieve growth.

University of Sydney's Dr Li said China's COVID-19 policy and Russia's invasion of Ukraine would continue to challenge China's economy this year. 

"Usually, China will utilise central government's financial support to stabilise its economy," she said. 

"But … I don't think China's economic growth this year will reach the official target of 5.5 per cent or the 4.3 per that was recently predicted by the World Bank."  

In 2020, Beijing announced a series of infrastructure plans to boost the economy, including development of the 5G network, bullet trains, electric vehicles and charging stations. 

Chinese authorities have not said when they will end the nation's COVID-zero policy. (AP: Ng Han Guan )

What's happening with those banks? 

To ease anger from the banking scandal, Henan's provincial banking and insurance regulator said that money would begin to be released.

"Advance payment will be released to customers with a combined amount of less than 50,000-yuan savings in one institution," it said.

"If the combined amount of a single institution is more than 50,000 yuan, the advance payment will be made successively, and the advance payment arrangement will be announced separately." 

However, the authority’s move is unlikely to immediately revive trust between depositors and their banks.

"Chinese people have 100 per cent faith in banks. They should be safer than a safe," said Mr Chen, another customer who had been denied withdrawals. 

"After this, who would dare to use the digital yuan?"

ABC/Wires 

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