LAHORE, Pakistan—India and Pakistan are still haunted by their violent births, in 1947, when British colonial rulers abruptly departed amid killing sprees between Hindu and Muslim populations.
The subcontinent was divided messily along religious lines, with Pakistan meant to be a home for most Muslims.
That left deep scars, including in the mountainous region of Kashmir, which was claimed by both India and Pakistan after their creation. Each country seized part of Kashmir, administering their portion ever since.
Kashmir was a Muslim-majority area, but its ruler opted to join India. That led to competing claims for the territory that are at the heart of decades of tensions. Kashmir was again the flashpoint this month, after India put blame for a bombing on a Pakistan-based jihadist group.
India and Pakistan fought full-scale wars in 1947, 1965 and 1971. But then both countries acquired nuclear weapons, which has deterred them from pursuing an all-out war that could threaten mutual annihilation. A smaller, short-lived conflict erupted in 1999, but that was confined to Kashmir.
A 2013 report by the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War warned that a nuclear war between India and Pakistan would set off a global famine that could kill two billion people, “entering something that is clearly the end of civilization.”
Faced with a bigger foe and the potential devastation of war, Pakistan turned in the 1990s to supporting jihadist groups that launched attacks on India-controlled Kashmir. That strategy continues, with those militant groups based in Pakistan. The jihadist groups have also attacked beyond Kashmir. In 2008, 10 gunmen traveled from Pakistan, killing more than 160 people in Mumbai, India. Pakistan denies giving any official help to the Mumbai attackers.
This month, a suicide bombing by a local militant in the Indian part of Kashmir, at Pulwama, killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel, provoking the current confrontation. He claimed affiliation with a Pakistani jihadist group in a video he left.
India has been working on strategies to counter jihadist attacks using limited retaliatory action against Pakistan. That approach is calibrated to avoid eliciting a strong response from Pakistan. This week India conducted a strike on what it called a jihadist training camp inside Pakistan. Islamabad responded with a similarly limited counterstrike, as both countries sought to avoid a spiral of escalating hostilities that could push them toward war. On Wednesday, jet fighters from the two countries engaged in an air battle.
The danger, spelled out by Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan this week, is that one side miscalculates the amount of pain that the other is willing to take.
In recent years, the conflict in Kashmir has evolved into an indigenous uprising against India’s rule there, with Pakistan’s role diminishing. The attacker at Pulwama was a Kashmiri who lived close to the attack site, not a militant sent from Pakistan.
Hundreds of thousands of Indian troops are deployed in Kashmir. International human-rights groups have documented widespread abuses by those soldiers against the local population.
A 2018 United Nations report found that Indian forces had used guns firing pellet ammunition against thousands of people in Kashmir, blinding many of them. India denies using excessive force against civilians and says it is battling a terrorist threat in Kashmir.
Write to Saeed Shah at saeed.shah@wsj.com
