Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
ABC News
ABC News
Politics
By Europe correspondent James Glenday

Angela Merkel will likely win Germany's election. After that, things could get interesting

It's been a year of big, continent-shaping elections in Europe.

There was the ferocious French campaign and the surprising UK result.

By contrast, as Germans prepare to head to the ballot boxes Sunday everyone's expecting things to remain a little dull, boring and predictable — at least until all the votes are counted.

In some ways there is more at stake at this election than any other, Germany is probably Europe's most influential nation.

But the result seems to be a foregone conclusion.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has looked in cruise control throughout another understated campaign and almost everyone expects her to win a fourth term.

When will we know the result?

A good indication of the result is expected shortly after the polls close early on Monday morning (Australian time).

By the time you wake up things should be pretty clear.

But that's actually when things could begin to get very interesting.

The German electoral system, due to the country's turbulent history, is designed to make it difficult for any party to ever get a majority.

Coalition governments are the norm and negotiations could take many weeks.

The process this time around promises to be far messier than the actual election itself.

Why? And who's who?

Ms Merkel, of course, needs no introduction.

She is one of the world's most recognisable and influential politicians, having served as chancellor for the past 12 years.

Polls suggest her conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) are likely to win about 37 per cent of the vote, give or take a few points, and become the largest party.

At home, she's not put on a pedestal in quite the same way as she is by some commentators and media outlets abroad.

But in an uncertain world featuring the likes of presidents Trump, Putin and Erdogan, many Germans see her as a safe, reliable set of hands.

Her only contender is Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament turned leader of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).

But he's forecast to do poorly — most polls put the SPD in the low 20s.

Who will form government?

Ms Merkel, or at least her conservative colleagues, would probably prefer to form government with the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP).

The small party is on track to return to parliament after a disappointing election in 2013, where it didn't meet the minimum 5 per cent national threshold.

But polls suggest the FDP won't win enough spots to deliver the Chancellor a working majority.

Her next option, and the one considered most likely, is another "grand coalition", a continuation of the current situation whereby the two traditional opponents, the CDU/CSU bloc and the SPD work together.

But the Social Democrats have seen their voter base ebb away under this arrangement with Ms Merkel.

Some in the party may prefer a stint as a vocal opposition to get back their mojo in time for the Chancellor's eventual retirement some time before the next election.

On current polls that would leave an even more fraught "Jamaica" option. A Coalition between Ms Merkel, the FDP and the Greens.

The colours used to represent those groups — black, yellow and green reflect the Jamaican flag.

The Greens and FDP have very different views on a number of issues and both leaders have expressed scepticism about how the arrangement would actually work.

A record six parties are on track to make it into parliament in total.

The two others we haven't yet mentioned are the socialist left, Die Linke, and the populist right, Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Neither are expected to have much influence on legislation.

Why is everyone talking about AfD?

Because AfD is on track to become the first populist right wing party to enter the parliament since the end of WWII.

Polls suggest it may even finish third overall, a result which would shock many Germans, though the party's supporters are the hardest to accurately poll.

Some of AfD's representatives have extreme views.

But there's an ongoing battle for control of the party and a few more moderate members would fit comfortably into the Republicans in the USA, the Conservatives in the UK and the Coalition parties in Australia.

Because of their views on immigration and integration, as well as the European Union, all the other parties have ruled out dealing with them.

The best they can probably hope for is to put more pressure on Ms Merkel's right flank and perhaps have an impact on some policies.

How does the election work?

Everyone gets two votes.

The first is for a local member. The second is for a party.

The parliament, which currently has 630 spots, is filled using both methods.

But things are actually much more complicated than that.

More seats can be added to the parliament if a party wins more districts (first vote) than it is entitled to compared to the national vote (second vote). The number of "overhanging mandates" depends what happens in each of the 16 states.

Confused? That's OK, many Germans don't really understand exactly how it works either.

If you ask what they think, "very complicated but very fair" is a common response and a pretty accurate one.

So Angela Merkel wins, then what?

There are big social issues simmering under the surface in Germany.

Like much of Europe, concerns about immigration, integration and social inequality are high.

The nation has recently welcomed more than a million asylum seekers and there are big questions about what impact they will have on the society long term.

Fortunately, the economy is very strong and some expect Ms Merkel to push for reform to the EU and the euro currency, while spending some of the nation's whopping budget surplus to better prepare her country for the digital future.

This also likely to be her last term in office.

How much she can achieve and will depend on who she forms government with.

Talks will probably begin in the back rooms as soon as the final result becomes clear.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.