Emmanuel Macron’s decision to appoint the youthful Gabriel Attal as France’s new prime minister represents a double first in the country’s history. At 34, Mr Attal will be the youngest politician ever to hold the office. Upliftingly, he will also be the first openly gay occupant of the Matignon. In his book, Revolution, written prior to his first presidential campaign, Mr Macron wrote: “What keeps France united is the acceptance of the diversity of origins and destinies and the refusal of fatalism.” As the final phase of the two‑term Macron presidency begins, Mr Attal is a choice designed to re-evoke the optimism and hopes for democratic renewal present at its outset.
More narrowly, Mr Macron’s move to replace Élisabeth Borne after only 20 months in office constitutes a political throw of the dice, ahead of European elections in June. These promise to be a torrid affair for the president’s centrist Renaissance (RE) party. Marine Le Pen’s radical right Rassemblement enjoys up to a 10-point lead in polls, and following the 2022 elections – at which RE lost its majority – has made hay in the national assembly. In stark contrast to his predecessor, the telegenic Mr Attal has won a deserved reputation as a skilled communicator and enjoys stellar personal poll ratings. Usefully, his age also puts him in the same generational cohort as Rassemblement’s 28-year-old president, Jordan Bardella.
The gamble in the Elysée is that a change of tone will deliver a change in parliamentary dynamics, and a change in the overall numbers.
Amid predictions that nationalist radical right parties are set to become the third-biggest force in the European parliament – overtaking the liberal bloc – it must be hoped that Mr Macron’s bet comes off. But the president may be investing too much faith in mere mood music. As Ms Borne discovered to her cost, the absence of a majority in the assembly has made the role of prime minister in Mr Macron’s second term a borderline impossible job.
On the government’s fiercely resisted policy of raising the retirement age – which Mr Macron ill-advisedly pursued at the height of a cost of living crisis – Ms Borne was roundly condemned for legislating by decree after failing to garner the necessary votes. Last month, a new immigration law was only passed when draconian new restrictions on benefits for legal migrants were added, at the insistence of the centre-right. Gallingly, Ms Le Pen hailed this moment as “an ideological victory”, as her party voted for the beefed-up bill. The political career of Mr Attal, like those of Mr Macron and Ms Borne, began in the Socialist party. But to the dismay of left-leaning RE deputies, who voted en masse against the new immigration law, the right has effectively dictated terms to the minority administration.
In consequence, Mr Attal will almost certainly focus on the atmospherics and steer clear of major new legislative battles. Beyond June’s elections, Mr Macron’s presidency may thus be fated to end with a dying fall, as the internal race to succeed him begins. If he can avoid mistakes while injecting a new sense of optimism, France’s new prime minister will be one of the favourites to win the right to take on Ms Le Pen in 2027. But amid signs that a growing number of voters see this beleaguered government as something of a spent force, taking the helm is a huge gamble for Mr Attal, as well as Mr Macron.
