Afternoon Summary
• John Swinney, one of the Scottish National party’s most experienced and longest-serving politicians, is on the verge of becoming the first minster of Scotland after he was chosen as the party’s new leader. The veteran SNP figure said in press conference on Monday that he would reach out to other parties, ruling out the return to an agreement with the pro-independence Scottish Green Party. He said that eradicating child poverty would be his primary focus if he were to become First Minister
• The Scottish National party’s depute leader has denied that a party activist was “leaned on” to pull out of the leadership race against John Swinney. The party’s deputy leader, Keith Brown, said Graeme McCormick’s last-minute decision on Sunday night not to stand against Swinney was proof the party was united and focused on delivering independence. Nominations for the role, vacated by Humza Yousaf last Monday, closed at midday on Monday.
• Rishi Sunak has insisted the result of the next general election “isn’t a foregone conclusion” and that he is “absolutely determined to fight” on. The Prime Minister made a renewed appeal for Conservative Party unity, emphasising that it was shared values which unified Tories, and insisting that his focus would be on demonstrating to voters that progress was being made on issues such as tax cuts and immigration.
• An Israeli offensive in Rafah “must not go ahead”, Sir Keir Starmer has warned, after the Israeli military told Palestinians to leave parts of the southern Gazan city. The announcement signals that a long-threatened Israeli ground invasion could be imminent, and came as ceasefire talks appeared to have stalled.
• Rishi Sunak said he was “deeply concerned” about the prospect of an Israeli offensive and said that the priority must be for all parties – “and particularly Hamas” – to agree to a deal that would pave the way for the release of hostages and for aid to go into Gaza.
Updated
Sunak: "deeply concerned" about a Rafah offensive
Rishi Sunak said he was “very concerned, deeply concerned” about the possibility of an Israeli military incursion into Rafah given the number of civilians sheltering there.
He had repeatedly made those points to the Israeli prime minister, but he added:
The priority now should be on all parties, but particularly Hamas, to agree to a deal to release hostages, to allow more aid to go in as part of a pause which would allow us to build a sustainable ceasefire.
That is the best way to end the suffering.
Sunak: election 'isn’t a foregone conclusion'
Rishi Sunak has insisted the result of the next general election “isn’t a foregone conclusion” and that he is “absolutely determined to fight” on after shattering election losses last week.
Challenged over his prediction of a hung Parliament during a visit to a community centre in Islington on Monday, the Prime Minister told broadcasters:
The independent analysis shows that whilst of course this was a disappointing weekend for us, that the result of the next general election isn’t a foregone conclusion and indeed actually is closer than, or the situation is closer than, many people are saying or indeed some of the opinion polls are predicting.
And that’s why I’m absolutely determined to fight incredibly hard for what I believe and for the future country that I want to build, and that’s what I’m going to do.
Fight for this country, fight for the things I believe and deliver for everyone on the things that matter to them.”
Asked if he would make changes after the heavy electoral defeats – including the Blackpool South by-election, council and mayoral elections – Sunak said that “for my part, reflecting on it,” he was determined to show that “progress is being made”
This included taxation being cut, a strengthening of national defence and the Rwanda programme being implemented, he said.
Updated
The Cass Review has to be taken “extremely seriously” and the government will take a “rational evidence based approach” drawing on the positions of clinicians, John Swinney says.
Dr Hilary Cass, the paediatrician commissioned to conduct a review of the services provided by the NHS to children and young people questioning their gender identity, found last month that gender medicine is “built on shaky foundations.”
Swinney has now wrapped up the press conference.
John Swinney moves towards the conclusion of the questions and answer session by emphasising his eagerness to work with other parties, adding:
My core point is that the parliament does not have to be polarised. There is bound to be things that can be done if there is good will.
The underlying problem is the austerity which he says has been imposed by the Tory government in Westminster, he adds, while saying he is not optimistic about that changing under Labour.
Updated
Swinney declines to say if there will be a role for Yousaf in his cabinet, but pays tribute to his predecessor as SNP leader.
Swinney: SNP has "lacked cohesion"
Swinney is asked by the Guardian’s Libby Brooks why he thinks the polls have been showing that independence supporters are becoming less likely to support the SNP.
I think the SNP has been having a tough, rough time.
I has lacked cohesion. I think that has come across to members of the public and they are worried about where we are as a party, but interestingly in the great feedback I get from my experienced peers around the country.. in the last couple of days some of my very wise colleagues have been out and about in our communities and one colleague sent me a message the other day saying they were worried about how the SNP was getting on but they were glad to see we were getting our act together.
Swinney says independence supporters in Scotland know only one party can deliver independence, but he wants to earn their votes back.
Updated
John Swinney says his principle policy interest is to eradicate child poverty in Scotland.
“Observe what we do in the period going forward,” adds Swinney, who says he will start focusing the governement on what it can do to eradicate child poverty if he is elected as First Minister.
“It is a curse and under my leadership I want to eradicate it in Scotland.”
Swinney was also asked about the view of Kate Forbes that increasing taxation was counter productive because it ultimately lessened public revenue. Would he cut income tax in future budgets?
Swinney says he is not going to craft the budget, but he adds that taxation cannot continually be increased.
Asked about what the threshold should be before a second referendum on independence should go ahead, Swinney says he believes the SNP has to spend a lot more time “talking about the persuasion of people and the arguments for independence rather than the process questions that have absorbed a huge amount of consideration in this discussion.”
Swinney singles out the cost of living crisis, which he links to decisions taken by the Westminster government.
John Swinney is being asked about his relationship in future with the Scottish Greens, the SNP’s partners until the termination of a coalition agreement with them by Humza Yousaf
He says in a Q&A after his speech that he he does not intend to that agreement or to “the type of fixed arrangements” that the SNP had, but he also says: “I am sure there will be a lot of common ground.”
On other issues the SNP will have to find support and agreement with other parties, he says.
Swinney emphasises that he will leader a government from the “moderate centre left,” adding: “That is where I come from, that is where my party’s policy base is.”
Summary
Alex Salmond, a former SNP leader who now heads the Alba Party, has suggested that John Swinney’s stated prioritisation of issues like the economy could pave the way for both pro-independence parties to work together.
“He was outstanding as finance secretary. In other roles he found things a bit more difficult in politics, but nonetheless I wish him well,” he told the BBC
“He is hitting some of the right notes in terms of saying hie is going to focus attention of government on jobs, education, housing, the health services, the things that rally matter,” said Salmond, adding that Swinney’s predecessor had become “a prisoner” of the Green Partyw, which he said appeared to be more concerned with “identity politics.”
Salmond quit the Scottish National party in 2018 as he sought to clear his name of sexual misconduct charges. He was acquitted in 2020 of all charges of sexual assault.
Updated
Swinney: priority will be 'economy, jobs, the cost of living'
Ther word referendum didn’t appear in the speech by Swinney, who said his focus – if elected as First Minister – will be “the economy, jobs, the cost of living.”
“It will be the NHS, our schools and our public services. It will be addressing the climate crisis,” he added.
Swinney made clear he would “always seek, with respect and courtesy, to persuade people of the case for Independence,” although to some listeners this will be a speech that was conspicuously light on pro-independence rhetoric.
That said, Swinney made clear:
Of course, I believe that this country could do more if we had the powers of a normal independent nation – the powers of independence. The cost of living crisis and the damaging impact of Brexit are two examples of Westminster decisions that are bad for Scotland. They demonstrate why Scotland needs to have Independence to make our own decisions and create our best future.
I will always seek, with respect and courtesy, to persuade people of the case for Independence.
Swinney’s predecessor quelled a rebellion last year by Scottish National party MPs by agreeing to a compromise with his critics over his independence strategy.
The party’s annual conference in Aberdeen decided that if the SNP wins a majority of Scotland’s Westminster seats at the general election, it will have the mandate to negotiate independence with the UK government.
Updated
In a reference as much to divisions within the SNP as among pro-independence parties in the Scottish parliament, John Swinney said he will “reach out to everyone willing to join with us in good faith and seek compromises that serve our nation well.”
That does not mean debate will end – far from it – but it does mean that, should I be elected, I will first seek to find common ground, to join together in coalitions of the willing and solve the problems our country faces,” said Swinney.
We need to stop shouting at each other and talk. More than that, actually, we need to listen. And as First Minister, I will do exactly that.
In a surprise move last month, Yousaf scrapped his party’s landmark coalition with the Greens
Swinney also said he had met last week with Kate Forbes, who had gone up against Yousaf for the party leadership previously but is now expected to take on a senior role under the new leadership. He said:
We came together and discussed the shared ambitions we have for our country and how best to go forward. I welcome Kate’s support for my leadership.
Updated
Swinney says he will "seek compromises"
The new leader of the SNP, John Swinney, is setting out his vision for the party an Scotland in a speech at the University of Glasgow.
Swinney paid tribute early on to the First Minister, Humza Yousaf, adding: “In particular, his moral leadership on the issue of Gaza has been a light in very dark times.”
Swinney went on to address how he came to be the only candidate to take on the party leadership:
I know there is controversy for some that I am the only candidate to stand for the leadership.
Perhaps not surprisingly I take a different view. For me, the fact that I am the only candidate demonstrates the Scottish National Party is now coming back together again.
Updated
An Israeli offensive in Rafah must not go ahead, the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has said.
Starmer’s comments came as thousands of people have been evacuating from Gaza’s southernmost city, hours after the Israeli military told residents and displaced people in eastern neighbourhoods to leave in advance of a long-threatened attack on the city and its environs.
“With more than a million Palestinian civilians sheltering in Rafah, an Israeli offensive must not go ahead,” he said on X, formerly Twitter.
“There must be an immediate ceasefire, the immediate release of all hostages, and unimpeded aid into Gaza that can be delivered regularly, quickly and safely.”
With more than a million Palestinian civilians sheltering in Rafah, an Israeli offensive must not go ahead.
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) May 6, 2024
There must be an immediate ceasefire, the immediate release of all hostages, and unimpeded aid into Gaza that can be delivered regularly, quickly and safely.
Labour would support Lib Dem no-confidence motion
Labour would support a motion of no confidence in the government which the Liberal Democrats are planning to table tomorrow when parliament returns (see 12.18pm).
The party is understood to view the Liberal Democrat motion as a stunt, but Labour MPs will back it if time is allowed for a vote.
Asked about the Liberal Democrat motion, a Labour spokesperson said:
The local elections sent a clear message that people across the country are demanding change, and only the Labour Party will deliver that.
Rishi Sunak should stop hiding from voters and allow them an opportunity to cast their verdict on 14 years of Tory failure. It’s time for a general election now.
Leeds Jewish Representative Councils have written to Greens about comments attributed to one of the party’s new local government councillors.
Mothin Ali, who a seat on Leeds City Council, is among newly elected Green councillors who have benefited as the party sought to capitalise on Labour’s turmoil overs its own position on Gaza.
But in a letter to the Greens’ co-leaders, the representative body of the Jewish community in Leeds singled out past comments by Ali on social media. In what the body said was a now deleted tweet, Ali was said to have stated: “White supremacist European settler colonialism must end” 12 hours after the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7.
The Greens – which have said they are investigating issues in relation to Ali’s comments - have been approached for comment. But Zac Polanski, deputy leader of the party in England and Wales, commented when the controversy around Ali was brought up on X, formerly Twitter:
I’m a Jewish person who is deputy leader of a national party. I’m also a Jewish person who criticises the Israeli governments actions *because* of my Judaism not in spite of it. Never again means never again for everyone. The conflation & politicisation must stop.
Wayne David, the shadow minister for the middle east and a MP who has been a supporter of the Labour Friends of Israel group, has said that there must not be an Israeli offensive in Rafah.
David added on X, formerly Twitter:
There needs to be maximum international pressure to stop this happening. An immediate ceasefire is needed, all hostages must be released, and massive amounts of humanitarian aid have to be delivered to all parts of Gaza.
Labour could seek to rebuild bridges with British Muslim voters who have turned away from the party by offering “an apology for errors” but this task may be insurmountable for the coming general election, a senior figure in the Muslim Council of Britain has warned.
Miqdaad Versi, a spokesman for the umbrella body for some Muslim organisations, was writing in a personal capacity in the Guardian.
He noted that Sadiq Khan and Andy Burnham had won in areas of large muslim populations despite some traditional Labour-voting Muslim voters abandoning the party over positions taken on Gaza. He writes:
At national Labour level, the challenge to rebuild trust is much harder. It may even be insurmountable for the coming general election – given the errors over Gaza, augmenting the more longstanding issues of failing to deeply engage with Muslim communities.
The wrong narrative to follow is that advanced by the far right and other divisive naysayers, who cite the local election results to demonise Muslims, suggesting the vote shows we only care about foreign issues.
Updated
Labour echoes Tories claim that 'stitch-up' paved way for Swinney to become SNP leader
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has echoed Douglas Ross’s claims that a “stitch up” paved the way for John Swinney to become SNP leader.
Sarwar said: “John Swinney’s coronation is entirely about managing the SNP rather than running our country and delivering for Scotland.
“At a time when Scotland is crying out for change, the SNP is offering more of the same.
“John Swinney has been at the heart of this incompetent government for 17 years and at the heart of the SNP for 40 years.”
Sarwar added: “From presiding over the exam results scandal as education secretary to destroying public finances as finance secretary, John Swinney’s record is one of failure.
“This is a stitch-up by a chaotic and dysfunctional party that is more interested in protecting its own interests than serving the interests of the people of Scotland.”
Updated
Patrick Harvie, the co-leader of the Scottish Greens, has congratulated John Swinney and said his party's support will be contingent on the SNP backing “progressive policies that help us to tackle the climate crisis and build a fairer and more equal future.”
In a statement, Harvie said: “The next Scottish government will face an important choice. Will they offer a progressive vision for Scotland’s future, or will they retreat toward the tepid middle ground, which would force them to rely on the Tories and other pro-union parties?
“There are a lot of important policies already on their way to delivery as a result of the Bute House Agreement, including better rights for tenants and rent controls, transforming the way we heat our homes and a watertight ban on conversion therapy.
“We remain utterly committed to these policies and will oppose any move away from them or steps to dilute them. It is also clear that the new Climate Bill must be used to bring about the pace of change that has been lacking since the SNP first started missing climate targets.
Humza Yousaf has congratulated John Swinney and called on SNP members to get behind the party's new leader.
In a video posted on X, he said: “It’s now important, more than ever before, that we unite so we can take our message of Scottish independence to every single doorstep in Scotland.
Congratulations to @JohnSwinney on becoming Leader of @theSNP and FM-elect.
— Humza Yousaf (@HumzaYousaf) May 6, 2024
John's central message has been one of unity. As a party, we must heed his call, whatever has happened in the past should remain there.
Let's get behind John & his team so they can deliver for Scotland. pic.twitter.com/Ep2XGXEVBH
In the post, Yousaf stressed the message to SNP members to unite behind Swinney. He said: “John's central message has been one of unity. As a party, we must heed his call, whatever has happened in the past should remain there.
“Let's get behind John & his team so they can deliver for Scotland.”
Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy has repeated calls for the Israeli military to resist an offensive ground operation in Rafah, saying it would be “catastrophic”.
An Israeli offensive in Rafah would be catastrophic. It must not go ahead.
— David Lammy (@DavidLammy) May 6, 2024
We need an immediate ceasefire, the immediate release of hostages, and immediate unimpeded aid to Gaza.
Lisa Nandy, the shadow secretary for international development, joined Lammy’s calls, saying people in Rafah have “no where to go”.
Tories say 'stitch-up' allowed Swinney to be SNP leader
The Scottish Conservative leader, Douglas Ross, has claimed that a “Stitch-up” has paved the way for Swinney to take over as SNP leader.
I congratulate John Swinney on becoming SNP Leader today.
— Douglas Ross MP MSP (@Douglas4Moray) May 6, 2024
But under him, the SNP will double down on independence obsession and ignore real priorities of people across Scotland.
Only the @ScotTories can beat them in seats across the country and focus on the issues that matter. pic.twitter.com/2zRc147tGd
Updated
John Swinney has said on X, formerly Twitter, that he is “deeply honoured” to take on the role as leader of the SNP
I am deeply honoured to have been elected as Leader of @theSNP. I will give all that I have to serve my Party and my Country.
— John Swinney (@JohnSwinney) May 6, 2024
One of the first to offer congratulations has been SNP MP
Amy Callaghan MP, who paid tribute to his character.
Updated
John Swinney takes over at the helm of the SNP after Humza Yousaf dramatically quit last week after ripping up a three-year-old governing alliance with the Scottish Greens, prompting them to back a vote of no confidence tabled by the Scottish Conservatives.
Libby Brooks and Severin Carrell report for the Guardian from Scotland that Swinney faces the ongoing challenge of passing bills and budgets as a minority government, as well as polling that suggests support for the SNP is slumping and heavy losses are likely at the coming general election at the hands of a resurgent Labour party.
Last week, Kate Forbes, the former finance secretary who came close to winning the SNP leadership last year, ruled herself out of the contest and backed Swinney, saying she was persuaded by his pledge to “govern from the mainstream”.
Swinney – who has offered Forbes a “significant” role in his government – said he wanted to unite the party after last year’s “difficult” leadership election to succeed Nicola Sturgeon.
John Swinney becomes new SNP leader
John Swinney has succeeded Humza Yousaf as the leader of the SNP after no other candidates put their names forward before the passing of a noon deadline today.
A potential challenger, in the form of an SNP activist, withdrew his bid on Sunday night, leaving Swinney with a clear path to take up the role he last held between 2000 and 2004.
The SNP’s deputy leader has denied that Graeme McCormick, a party activist, was “leaned on” to pull out of the leadership race.
Now that the nomination and SNP leadership process has changed, Swinney is also set to become the new Scottish First Minister.
Updated
Lib Dems to table no-confidence motion in government
The Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, is to table a motion of no confidence in the government when Parliament returns tomorrow.
The move comes after a pleasing performance for the Lib Dems in last week’s local elections, which saw them add more council seats than any other party over the last parliament, gaining more than 750 in the last five years, largely in the south-west and south of England.
Davey said:
These local elections showed the country has had enough of Rishi Sunak and his out-of-touch Conservative Government.
The Conservatives were pushed into third place for the first time in a generation as Liberal Democrats swept the board in former true blue heartlands. Yet Sunak continues to desperately cling on to power, holed up in Downing Street until the bitter end.
Key event
A noon deadline for SNP members to put their names forward to be the new leader of their party has passed, leaving John Swinney as the only apparent candidate. It’s all quiet for now…
The former UKIP MEP, Patrick O’Flynn, has written an interesting piece today in which he analyses the role Reform UK is playing a role in Rishi Sunak’s attempts to make centre-right voters fearful that Britain faces a Labour-led “coalition of chaos.”
The real target of this message is the Reform UK vote. The Tory machine thinks this is squeezable and squeezable very hard so long as it can get this binary up and running among right-leaning people.
O’Flynn, who recalls George Osborne deploying a similar strategy, with some success, against UKIP, adds on his substack that Reform’s current leadership risk “looking like a pair of kamikaze pilots” in their celebration of moves to bring about the destruction of the Tory Party
If they were to become “less tribal and more imaginative then they could further divide and weaken the Tory parliamentary party over the summer,” he says, although O’Flynn reckons only Nigel Farage could do this.
He was named recently by Liz Truss as one of her favourite political leaders of moment, but the former prime minister gone below the radar of Argentina’s president, Javier Milei.
“Quién? [who?]” asked Milei, when asked by the BBC in an interview what he thought of her.
Truss had said “Well, I like Javier Milei,” during a recent interview with GB News when she was asked for her “favourite Tory leaders” other than Churchill and Thatcher.
Milei, a self-styled standard bearer for libertarian policies, has been pressing ahead with plans for Argentina’s embattled economy, which is grappling with inflation above 200%, depleted foreign currency reserves and a timebomb of debt repayments owned to creditors and investors. In January he dropped some of the most divisive spending reforms but – despite clashes on the streets – has now outlasted the 49 days in power of Truss.
“I don’t have elements to give an opinion but what in the UK is defined as conservative, well we we libertarians have a lot of common ground with that,” he told the BBC.
Updated
Argentina’s presidebt, Javier Milei, has said that he accepts the Falkland Islands are currently “in the hands of the UK.”
That subtle change of language, in comparison to previous Argentine leaders, was accompanied by a view from Milei to get the islands back through diplomatic channels, though he told the BBC in an interview that there was “no instant solution”.
Milei, who won a resounding victory in the presidential race last year, had said after his victory that Buenos Aires had “non-negotiable” sovereignty over the Falklands, the archipelago in the South Atlantic Ocean known to Argentinians as the Islas Malvinas.
The islands were the subject of a bloody conflict in 1982 after Argentinian forces invaded and briefly occupied the territory. The war claimed the lives of 255 British service personnel, three islanders and 649 Argentinian personnel.
The Scottish National party’s depute leader has denied that a party activist was “leant on” to pull out of the leadership race against John Swinney.
The party’s depute leader, Keith Brown, said Graeme McCormick’s last-minute decision on Sunday night not to stand against Swinney was proof the party was united and focused on delivering independence.
Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland, Brown said Swinney’s emergence last week as the person expected to succeed Humza Yousaf as first minister after the collapse of the SNP’s coalition deal with the Greens had led to a bounce among voters.
Swinney’s coronation as leader appeared assured after he persuaded his most potent rival, Kate Forbes, not to stand.
Updated
We also have some bank holiday listening for you if you missed it yesterday.
In the first of our Politics Weekly Westminster episodes, the Guardian’s political editor Pippa Crerar and political correspondent Kiran Stacey go over the big wins and losses from the local and mayoral elections
We’ve now turned on comments below the blog for those eager to share bank holiday political thoughts.
The French President Emmanuel Macron has been marking the 30th anniversary of the linking of the Channel Tunnel.
Rishi Sunak has yet to do likewise (cue music), though at least one Conservative MP has retweeted Macron.
Thirty years ago, the Channel Tunnel finally linked the United Kingdom and France!
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) May 6, 2024
This feat brought people closer together, gave new impetus to our trade and confirmed the strength of our political relationship. pic.twitter.com/bvHrqDXCfo
Meanwhile, Jonn Elledge has also been thinking of the same moment from the 1990s. In a comment piece for the Guardian, he wonders [brace position]:
Tunnel or no tunnel, perhaps England and France were never that distinct after all.
Updated
Labour has marked the anniversary of the Conservatives re-entering government at the 2010 election by launching a what the opposition have called “Conflix” website [geddit?] that mockingly tells the story of “14 years of Tory chaos”
WATCH: Chaos & Decline. Exclusive to Conflix.
— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) May 6, 2024
Watch the trailer here.
The party’s chair, Anneliese Dodds, was challenged about the site on Sky News this morning and whether the party was relying on “stunts” rather than policy proposals. She insisted that the “detail of policy” was there, in the form of initiatives like GB Energy.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) has received an “immediate lift” in canvassing sessions as John Swinney prepares to become its next leader, the party’s deputy leader has claimed.
Keith Brown said the “field is clearing” as it is expected that Swinney will run unopposed and be confirmed as SNP leader later today.
Brown was speaking to the BBC ahead of the close of nominations at noon in the race to replace Humza Yousaf as the leader of the SNP.
Updated
Polling boss dismisses Sunak's hung parliament prediction
Rishi Sunak’s prediction that the UK is headed for a hung parliament is “for the birds,” according to Ben Page, Ceo of polling company Ipsos.
He told Times Radio that the situation is in Labour’s favour:
I think it’s for the birds, to be honest, at the moment. If you look at the swing in Blackpool South, 30 per cent or so, you look at these local election results, which we haven’t seen anything of this kind since just before Labour won a landslide in 1997.
And finally, you look at Keir Starmer, and Keir Starmer isn’t particularly popular, but it’s always compared to what, if you look at how people rate Keir Starmer as best possible candidate for being prime minister with Rishi Sunak, he’s got double the score of Rishi Sunak.
Sunak had claimed in an interview published today that the UK is heading for a hung parliament, as he urged his MPs to put a stop to divisions and “come together” to take on Labour.
These results suggest we are heading for a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party. Keir Starmer propped up in Downing Street by the SNP, Liberal Democrats and the Greens would be a disaster for Britain.
Page did have some crumbs of comfort for Sunak, however.
The silver lining is that Keir Starmer isn’t particularly popular. If he becomes prime minister, no leader of the opposition with his personal ratings will have ever become prime minister with ratings that are that relatively weak. But having said that, it’s more about just people being fed up with the Conservatives.
Updated
Labour is winning people back in those areas that are so important on the road to Number Ten, the party’s chair, Anneliese Dodds, told Sky News in an earlier interview.
But she also took issue with analysis that “assumes that you can just take local election results and somehow read off from those what will happen at the general election.”
That’s never been the case. Local elections tend to deliver a far higher proportion of independent councillors, far higher proportion of smaller parties being elected with councillors. That’s about a fifth of those who were elected actually last Thursday.
At least two more Conservative MPs could defect to Labour before the next general election, HuffPost UK’s Kevin Schofield reports.
He says that handful of Tory MPs are understood to have held talks with Labour officials about the possibility of switching sides.
The would join two other MPs elected as Tories in 2019 - Christian Wakeford and Dan Poulter. The latter, a former health minister staged a dramatic defection to Labour last month, saying the Conservatives have become a “nationalist party of the right” that has abandoned compassion and no longer prioritises the NHS.
The Chair of Labour, Anneliese Dodds, has told broadcasters the party will “act on the concerns” of people who had voted for it in the past but had turned away against the backdrop of the conflict in Gaza.
It was important for Labour to “have a discussion” and “understand” why people had shifted away from the party and then reflect them, she told Good Morning Britain.
An analysis has shown that despite huge gains in council seats, seizing the West Midlands mayoralty, and Sadiq Khan, the Muslim mayor of London, winning a third term, there was an almost 18% drop in the Labour vote in areas of England where more than a fifth of people identified as Muslim.
Speaking on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme, Maria Caulfied was unable to explain how Sunak was including Scottish and Welsh voters in calculating there would be a hung parliament at the next election.
Asked repeatedly how many seats Labour would have in Scotland under the projection Sunak was referring too, Caulfield eventually said “I think because these were English local elections, it doesn’t touch on the Scottish results.”
It was then put to her that the assumption being made is that Labour would retain just one seat in Scotland. Recent polling has suggested that Labour may have taken a small lead over the SNP in voting intention for a general election.
She was told “nobody is suggesting that these results would be replicated at a general election. The experts aren’t suggesting it. I put it to you that, really, the prime minister, if he is suggesting it to his own side, is taking them for fools.”
Caulfield went on to say:
What we can see from these results and it was consistent … is that people are not switching to Labour. Labour did not get the results in places like Teeside or Harlow that they were expecting, even though they threw the kitchen sink at some of those. Voters are tending at the moment to stay at home. They don’t want a Labour government.
Health minister Maria Caulfield has repeated prime minister Rishi Sunak’s assertion that the UK is on course for a hung parliament, and said that Conservative voters who stayed at home for last week’s elections will back the Government at the general election.
She told viewers of Sky News:
If you look at Blackpool South, for example, the vast majority of our voters that voted for us in 2019 stayed at home, they didn’t switch to Labour. They didn’t switch to Reform. They stayed at home and that shows that they haven’t really been tempted by other parties.
That isn’t a particularly accurate reading of the figures, as on a low turnout Labour’s vote share went from 38.3% to 58.9.%, rising by 20 points. The 32 points of share that the Conservatives lost appeared to have gone to them, with Reform UK getting a ten point boost from their performance as the Brexit party in 2019.
Speaking to the Times, Sunak has said that the projection by the elections expert Michael Thrasher that extrapolated the share of local council voting nationwide to a general election showed that the country was heading for “a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party”.
The fifth Conservative prime minister in the last eight years told the newspaper:
Keir Starmer propped up in Downing Street by the SNP, Liberal Democrats and the Greens would be a disaster for Britain. The country doesn’t need more political horse trading, but action. We are the only party that has a plan to deliver on the priorities of the people.
John Swinney set to become next SNP leader and first minister
John Swinney looks set to become the next SNP leader when nominations close at noon.
The former first minister is expected to run unopposed in the race to replace Humza Yousaf.
Yesterday Graeme McCormick said he had the secured 100 nominations from 20 branches needed to run against Swinney, but later announced that he would not be standing.
Assuming there are no last-minute challengers – the deadline for nominations is noon – then the leadership bid will not have to be put to SNP members, and he is likely to become Scotland’s next first minister – the third in just over a year – as early as Tuesday.
The Scottish government cabinet will meet on Tuesday, with MSPs later given the opportunity to elect a new first minister.
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Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of UK politics today.
We are expecting John Swinney to be confirmed as new SNP leader after Graeme McCormick said he had the support to run but opted not to. The nominations will be announced at noon, and Swinney may be the only candidate.
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The president of the Trades Union Congress has warned that watering down Labour’s plan to strengthen workers’ rights would be disastrous for the party’s relations with unions. Amid reports that Sir Keir Starmer may bow to pressure from business and amend important parts of his “new deal for workers”, Matt Wrack said the Labour leader risked causing “significant anger” among union members.
Aslef restarts rail strikes in England with a week of action.
Drivers in the Aslef union will strike for 24 hours at each of England’s national train operators over the course of three days from Tuesday until Thursday, while an overtime ban will apply nationwide from Monday until Saturday.Leaked documents seen by Sky News suggest the government had planned a Rwanda-style deportation deal with Iraq. Rwanda has admitted it can’t guarantee how many deported asylum seekers it will take in
Farmers’ confidence has hit its lowest level in at least 14 years, with extreme weather and the post-Brexit phasing-out of EU subsidies blamed for the drop
The Conservative party is continuing to come to terms with shattering local election and mayoral contest losses over the weekend and last week. The prime minister will take questions in a pooled interview on a visit to a community centre in the late afternoon.
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